Saturday, February 28, 2009

Buffet predicts: ONSLAUGHT OF INFLATION-Buy GOLD and SILVER

In his long awaited annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffet reflected on the economic crisis, the coming inflationary pressures, and his own personal mistakes. “During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments. I made at least one major mistake of commission and several lesser ones that also hurt,” he explains.

Speaking of the government response to the nations economic crisis, he writes:

“This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone ‘all in.’ Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel.”


He goes on to explain the foreseeable inflationary threat:

“These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome
aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.”

On the issue of moral hazard, he says that “major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political
challenge. They won’t leave willingly.”

In 2008, Mr. Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway suffered a decrease in book value per share of 9.6%, only the second such decline in Berkshire’s 44 year history. The price of his company’s stock has dropped over 50% since the 2007 peak of $151,600 per share.

87 comments:

  1. And why wouldn't Uncle Warren say that the money that is flowing into treasuries is starving his companies for capital, if inflation is going to raise you may as well max out the credit cards and get into hock up to your neck. He also demanded his shareholders go on a shopping spree.
    Uncle Warren isn't stupid. Hummmmmmmmm

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  2. Mr. Buffet will only be right concerning inflation if the creation of money and/or credit exceeds the debt that is being vaporized on a daily basis. i Quadrillion in over the counter and private derivatives blowing up will be massive compared to whatever the world's CB's can do. They are powerless to stop this, but they will scream inflation to fool the sheeple. I believe Mr. Buffet experienced massive deflation to his balance sheet, and this will continue until he cries uncle.

    $860 Billion in RMBS from RBS was marked down by Moody this week. They also put out a note that default rates will be worse than the Great Depression. Thirdly, an Asian financial company blew up this week, and SHITI is a creditor. Good luck with saving SHITI!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Just to underscore what I mean concerning Mr. Buffet's thoughts regarding inflation/deflation:

    Berkshire reports a 96 percent drop in 4Q profit
    On October 26 2008, I wrote the following about Market Fundamentalism that sounded quite offending to many type-two suckers who manage multi-billion funds based on valuations and market fundamentalism.

    Collapse of Market Fundamentalism

    Did you read the 5th paragraph?

    This morning, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported a 96 percent drop in its fourth quarter profit because of largely unrealized losses of $3.25 billion on investments and derivative contracts. In the report, Mr Buffet confesses that it is all his mistake. This alone makes me rethink about his ability to learn despite his age and honestly I might have been underestimating his adaptive skills.

    However there is still an army of thick headed fund managers in the business that will not understand what has really changed and why it is different this time, until the grand day of reckoning. Until then the wealth transfer from this army of suckers to the minority at the top of the pyramid will continue like a fight between dinosaurs and their predators... lengthy and bloody.

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  4. brother can you spare a dime

    ReplyDelete
  5. SPECTRE of Deflation

    What you're seeing is not deflation, you're seeing deleverageing. Once this clears the system inflation can not be stopped. You need only look to Argentina and Zimb. as examples, study these collpases.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Some confusion exists on the inflation side of things. Just because the goobnet prints a ton of money (actual inflation as per definition) that does not translate into inflation of asset classes, i.e. your stock portfolio inflating, lol. No, assets will continue to deflate as defaults increase, however cost of living items, food and energy in particular will only increase. I also think it is possible for stocks in commodities to deflate in the face of rising prices for commodities, mostly due to tax increases as the goobnet seeks to find the only source of tax that will be paying for the bloated behemoth that the Cloverfield i.e. Wall Street ran Washington monster has become.

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  7. I find it unbelievable that almost every pundit thinks that government bailouts will lead to increasing money supply -inflation and rising gold prices.

    Rising M only leads to Rising P if the $$$ being held short are going to be spent on goods and services. If a rising money supply is as a result of a liquidity preference and a fear of riskier assets ( MBS) etc then it is not inflationary.

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  8. I think that author has some rights. Inflation (in Poland for instance) is about 6 % - 22.04.2009 forecast 2,7 % of GDP deficit - IN REAL is 3,9 % !!!!
    Depression ...

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