Could the economy really recover this quickly from the traumatic trifecta of a record real estate bubble, leviathan levels of debt, and a global credit collapse? We don’t see it as remotely possible, but yet… but yet… there for everyone to see are countless happy headlines and breathless exhortations that the worst is behind us.
So, is it Green Shoots or Greater Depression?
Getting the answer right is critical, because from it flow serious consequences to each of us. And not just in our investment portfolios but in how we organize our lives.
Looking for an evidence trail leading to the correct conclusion, Casey Chief Economist Bud Conrad once again put in very long hours digging through the data. Here’s what he uncovered, about the claims of green shoots, and what may actually be in store for the economy moving forward.
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Mr. Casey looks at e.g. commercial paper. This type of short term debt suffers in another way. The total amount of commercial paper, measured in USD, has dropped significantly since 2007.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Tickerguy (Karl Denninger) the US economy contracted by a mere 1% in the second quarter of 2009. But that's including
1) Including increased government spending. Extracting government spending from the GDP number, US GDP (conumsers, businesses) was actually down by 4.6%.
2) Before the usual revision of the GDP number. e.g. US GDP for the 1st quarter of 2009 was in july 2009 revised downwards from -3% to -6.4%.
What government person is driving that RR? That pisses me off.
ReplyDeleteThere is a google video - Argentina's Economic Collapse. It is exactly what is happening to the US right now. Savers and people who slaved all their lives wiped out by the banksters. Money crumbling to dust.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 10:03 there are 2 Rolls Royces, at a tax payer cost of at least 500,000. The one in front is a black 2009 Phantom, but it seems to be a little longer than the "regular" ones. They really need them?
ReplyDeleteThose RR's aren't government vehicles - Georgia HT plates are issued to car distributor corporations.
ReplyDeleteAnon above the plate stated "Georgia ( and "Gov." in small letters). I forgot the Government is also in the car business.
ReplyDeleteAll our new (well, after 2007) Georgia license plates have Georgia.gov as the header. I guess its to encourage people to go to the state website for tourism and such.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the clarification on the plates!
ReplyDelete