Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.
"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients.
"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.
He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.
Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.
This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250. ...
The elephant in the room is the spiralling public debt as private losses are shifted on to the taxpayer, especially in Britain and America. "Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone?"
Mr Janjuah said governments might put off the day of reckoning into the middle of next year if they resort to another shot of stimulus, but that would store yet further problems. "If what I fear plays out then I will have to concede that the lunatics who ran the asylum pretty much into the ground last year are back in control."
LINK
Read about the disturbing Morgan Stanley SILVER FRAUD. Any investor doing this would get MANY YEARS in Prison!
PDF FILE HERE
..."Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone?"...
ReplyDeleteGreat question so... who exactly will foreclose on the U.K. and the U.S.?
The people.
ReplyDeleteWhen the government no longer fulfills it's duties toward it's citizens, no longer providing infrastructure, services, aid and protection, then the people will foreclose upon the government.
great questions...
ReplyDeletePerhaps we will see an uptick in employment in the guillotine business. As Nancy Pelosi said, "Let them eat cake." Or was that someone else?
ReplyDeleteSome of us can only hope, what with the mysoginistic fools out there just waiting for an "every man" for himself survivalist opportunity to show off and use their guns.
ReplyDelete"Cool Cool Kitty, when you gonna realize this is a man's world baby. When every man around you is sporting a gun just to survive?
It's going to happen sooner than you think, little one."
This sounds like a threat. Got food and water storage? Check. M-16 locked and loaded? Check. Black face paint applied beneath eyes? Check. Night scope trained on any passerby within 100M radius? Check.
I continue to wonder how many US sheeple believe the economy is coming back? The dumbed down, mind control public is worried about if their football team will win their next game.
ReplyDeleteBoy o Boy, a lot of people are going to be very hungry very soon.
Buy lots of ammo...
I'll take my chances with the gun nuts thank you very much. I know they are the only ones standing between me and a Fema camp. Worry more about the official folks with their lies, heat compliance weapons, guns, IR trackers, and vans than with Billy Bob. Billy isn't coming to seek me out eventually, he just wants to be left alone. Billy is no threat to me and may be my only chance. Long live Billy.
ReplyDeleteWell maybe that poster was angry because cool cool kitty called him a little boy and he wants her to
ReplyDeleteRESPECT TEH AUTHORITAH OF HIS BULLSWAGGLES
heh
Long live Billy...how gay!
ReplyDeleteLet's hope Billy doesn't blow your brains out in error when you go stumbling around his alley for food.
Long live unmarked Vans and redundant paperwork!
I just want everyone to know that I am a Knights Templar and I approve of what you are saying.
ReplyDeleteDo they speak english in Knights Templar?
ReplyDeleteSay Knights Templar again!
I double dog dare you!
We speak in an alien based language not very different from English.
ReplyDeleteBe weary of strange looks from dogs. We shapeshift into pets too.
Ok, I think I got it...those who will call their note in on the U.S. and U.K. will be one or possible combination from the following list:
ReplyDelete1. The revolutionary citizenry
2. Marie Antoinette’s dress maker
3. AM radio song writers
4. Uni-bomber’s first cousin
5. A shepherd and finally
6. An alien based life form
No wonder Treasury sales continue…
if by 'Treasury sales' you mean the Fed buying their own paper, then yeah
ReplyDeleteNo wonder Treasury sales continue...
Did someone invite the sub sentient chimpanzee club here?
What have I created here?
ReplyDeleteIf by “sub sentient chimpanzee club” you mean alma mater, then yes invitations were sent out via satellite…
ReplyDeleteDo we have a parrot on here?
ReplyDelete