Back in the Great Depression of 1929 through the 1930's, we saw a similar Zig-zag pattern. There was a crash in 1929, followed by a nice rally, but then the most devastating part of the market collapse followed into the 1930's. That Bear Market was a Supercycle degree wave (IV). The current Bear Market is one degree larger, which means it should be worse. There is great risk to the status quo political structure of governments internationally should this Bear Market follow the Zig-zag pattern. That is why gold is an attractive component investment for diversified conservative portfolios, as it has been considered a monetary equivalent throughout the ages, surviving the rise and fall of fiat currencies of nation state powers.
Fundamentals are a mess at this time in the U.S. economy, regardless of all the hoopla nonsense we hear from the mainstream financial press, who hope to jawbone this economy to health, so their ratings rise. Truth is, we have close to a 10 percent admitted unemployment at this time, with the actual rate much higher if you include discouraged workers no longer seeking employment. Unemployment will get worse. A lot of good folks are collecting severances or unemployment checks, which have expiration dates. This means consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of GDP, is not going to rise much any time soon. Comparative corporate earnings reports that we hear "beat expectations" are beating pathetic expectations, not robust expectations. A lot of the earnings improvements are due to labor cost savings from downsizing, not growth.
Health insurance has been the topic dujour the past few weeks. From the Secretary of Health and Human Resources' own lips, the United States is now spending $2.5 trillion on health care, about 17 percent of GDP. So where are we headed? Will 50 percent of all jobs in America eventually be either in the healthcare industry or the government? That is no framework for a prosperous nation.
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The Oligarchs are really having some fun screwing with us.
ReplyDeleteget yer hardhat she's comin down
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6ya-40tCa0
ReplyDeleteThere's going to be a lot of sick, hungry, needy people. Normally, I would say the outlook for the health industry is great. But the government is broke. Some of its assistance programs are already being shelved, trying to make room just to make budget. We may see the re-ermergence of the local family doctor, whom people can get to know, trust, and rely on for quality care and in turn a nice modest sum is paid in turn w/o insurance, middlemen, and excessive testing and drug prescriptions.
ReplyDeleteAs expected, the bankster's well-paid PR firms are out to stop the audit of the Fed legislation through misinformation and propaganda. If they succeed, any hope for Americans is gone.
ReplyDeleteAlready, newspapers are running opinion-stories about how awful it would be if our Fed saviors were burdened with an audit.
They are scared and cannot be allowed to win this one.
Alan Greenspan and dimwit former US Labor Secretary have both chirped "health sciences" so yes, you better believe the only jobs left in the US will be in health sciences. IT to India, manufacturing to China.
ReplyDeleteI still say make Elaine Chao responsible. Send your bills to her THROUGH Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), her husband. They wanted to be the Phil and Wendy Gramm of Washington, DC.
Shoo the children
ReplyDeletewith no shooz on their feet
Oh they'll be shooed alright !
ReplyDeleteright into the FEMA camps !
Signed; PrickLeePair
I just took Macroeconomics received an A (94). Most people do not know what GDP stands for and what the inputs are to configure the rate. The unemployment rate is much higher on account of many factors besides the discouraged worker. Other factors not included in the rate are;
ReplyDelete* Children under 18 years of age that are able and would be willing to work, but no jobs available for them.
* The college grad from years ago, Stay Home Mom who haven't worked in years, but the children can stay home now (older than 12). These women might be in the job market, too. They aren't collecting unemployment right now.
* All people collecting unemployment benefits and working PT jobs at low earnings. They collect some unemployment, but are not considered part of the unemployment rate, because their status changed to what the gov't considers "working".
I scratch my head at this information learned in the text book and Prof. from Macroeconomics class.
Collectively we have allowed ourselves to be come ignorant of the entire picture. It's very depressing.