Thursday, September 3, 2009
The Great Depression Remix
By ROBERT MORLEY
The 1929 financial crash was masterfully composed to inflict punishment. Every time stock investors thought it was safe to get back in the dance, they just lost more money. Every time consumers thought it was safe to start spending again, the job scene hit another low note. Businesses couldn’t hold a tune—they went bankrupt by the thousands.
Eight decades later, the question facing the world is this: Is the worst really over, or is it just the opening note of a very familiar hymn?
We are singing the same song. And even if the lyrics are not exactly the same, this verse certainly rhymes with the first. History repeats itself. Unfortunately, most people don’t know history.
Ask the average guy on the street. He is almost sure to tell you that he has heard on television or read on the Internet that the crisis is over.
(Snippet)
The Wall Street Journal blares: “Economists Call for Bernanke to Stay, Say Recession Is Over” (August 11). Newsweek’s Daniel Gross confirms: “I’m prepared to declare that the recession is really, most probably over” (July 14). Bloomberg and Forbes are whistling their own happy tunes proclaiming the end of the recession too.
The good old times are back. Stocks will keep going up until 2010, says money manager John Dorfman. “On balance … I think the evidence favors continued gains.”
Sadly, it is all too familiar.
In 1930, the average person was singing that the worst was over too—as did many of the so-called professionals.
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