Here's the deal.
The US is in the midst of the steepest decline in home price on record.
Short-term treasury yields went negative and are still close to zero.
Long-term treasury yields hit record lows.
Foreclosures hit record highs.
The stock market had the biggest collapse since the Great Depression.
U-6 unemployment is a whopping 16.8% and still rising.
The PPI (producer price index) had the biggest drop in 59 years.
The CPI is at -1.3% is declining at the fastest pace since 1950 according to government calculations. The real CPI by my calculations is -6.2% (See What's the Real CPI? for details).
U-6 does not count recent graduates looking for a job but living at home in search of one. It also does not count self-employed real estate agents who have not made a sale in a year. However it does count all the "self-employed" selling trinkets on Ebay making $200 a month or less. I do not have totals for that, but structural unemployment plus structural underemployment is likely North of 20%.
One does not see any of that that in the first chart. Nor does one see falling wages, the likelihood of Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade, massive bank failures, Food-Stamps Reach 33.8 Million in April, 5th Consecutive Monthly Record, or the ongoing commercial real estate bust with One Sixth Of All Construction Loans In Trouble.
These are characteristics of a depression, not a recession. It's time to stop pretending otherwise.
Link
Are you calling the Treasury Dept and The fed lairs?
ReplyDeleteOnce again, MISH can't see the forest for the trees.
ReplyDeleteWait till the next leg down of the unemployment curve comes.
His chart looks so rosy. He ought to work for the government.
Oh wait. Maybe he does.
"These are characteristics of a depression, not a recession. It's time to stop pretending otherwise."
ReplyDeleteMSM and many 'economists' and 'analysts' are saying we are coming out or likely out of a recession let alone even ponder the D word
I think not - talk and rhetoric means little from the view on main street, that picture says a different story
USA Today said last month that the 'recession' would be over by Sept 30th. Yippee! Time to buy an even bigger LCD TV.
ReplyDelete"The PPI (producer price index) had the biggest drop in 59 years." This should be seen as a good thing, cause things will get real cheap soon.
ReplyDeleteHold off on buying your LCD TV till next year, they should be really cheap then! Its great to live in the best country in the world!
I'm proud to be an American where at least I know I'm free. By next year, I will have free health insurance, I will be contributing to get rid of the nasty CO2 that is destroying the world and hopefully, Israel and my country will have turned Iran into a large field of glass! The Iranian's HATE us for our freedoms!
We are so fortunate to live in the good ole US of A!
Anonymous 5:12.....tongue in cheek I hope!
ReplyDeleteNo kidding, let's all hope.
ReplyDeleteGet ready. Plenty of 'em neighbors - you can 'jest tell 'em I TOLD YOU SO.
ReplyDeleteNo man is so enslaved as he who believes himself to be free
ReplyDeleteWhy are they still building ? and why are they still getting loans if they cant repay their old loans? The solution to this problem is for banks to stop loaning money period. Businesses need to save and stop spending.
ReplyDeleteWhere did the Author get his info. The real data are:
ReplyDeleteLong term yield is at lowest
Foreclosures has stopped
Stock market has recovered
U6 Unemployment is only 3%
PPI has recovered
CPI is rising
Please stop pretending things are bad. Everything is back to normal.
Breaking News:
ReplyDeleteThe US of A has urgently opened Immigration as unemployment rate hits near zero and employers screams for more labor. The current US economic boom with GDP growth surpassing that of China by 12% this year has created an unprecedented demand for labor and forced the Obama Administration to relax immigration Laws to meet employer demand for labor. It is estimated that at least 10 million people will be needed over the next two month.
The situation is so desperate that Human rights groups in Africa has reported that shadow US organizations are abducting people from Africa.
more to follow....
Wait a second, will there be a dead cat bounce ? There probably have a few bounds before we reach the bottom, shake out all the bad things, including banks, loans, people who won't suppose to borrow beyond their means....back to basic, save money, buy things only if got money.
ReplyDelete