It is extremely difficult to find a true bright spot in the economy that indicates improvement enough to warrant such optimism. To begin, here is a brief update about the 4 key underlying economic problems outlined within Arbitrary Vote’s original warning article:
1. Unprecedented, massive amounts of existing and coming national debt – U.S. national debt has continued to increase and there is no sign of future debt letting up.
2. Foreign reluctance to fund U.S. debt – China, Russia, Brazil, etc continue to back away from U.S. Treasurys, diversify into other investments, and make moves toward trade in non-U.S. currency.
3. Declining productivity and indicators of poor future productivity – GDP has continued to fall and unemployment has continued to rise. Recent political action, reform currently on the table, and mounting taxation all point to future productivity damage.
4. Unprecedented, massive levels of money printing – The printing presses have been running non-stop and there’s no real sign of them letting up. Much of the recovery hype has stemmed from economic illusions caused by this temporary “fix”.
All of these factors have continued and mostly worsened since June. Each plays as significant a role as ever in the near- and long-term direction of the economy.
The situation is worse than described by most mainstream sources, and because of developments thus far this year and events unfolding in the near future, there are particular reasons to beware of the months ahead. A few communication sources are predicting stock market crashes and corrections for the autumn of 2009, but rarely outline specifically what could be so dangerous about this timing and potential big-picture implications.
A large segment of this analysis is devoted to outlining the near-term factors that could cause serious economic and societal problems in the coming months. The outline of factors is broken down as follows:
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Yeah yeah yeah more bla bla bla...we have been hearing this for how many times now? (I have stopped counting).
ReplyDeleteWe should rename this Blog to "The Coming Economic Boom" - more chance of that happening than a depression
I disagree with 10:04. Just sit back and relax and watch it unravel. The signs are all there.
ReplyDeleteThere can be no doubt the Fed, Treasury and other Governmental Agencies are cooking the numbers to fuel this bailout bubble. I am also certain there will be a further collapse in the equity markets and the US Dollar.
ReplyDelete10:20 I will certainly sit back and relax and what will unravel is not an economic depression but the extinction of people like you as the economy booms next year.
ReplyDeleteThere's a crash imminent! Oh wait, everyones been saying this for almost a year now. Things will continue improving, all thaqt is happening is the working class and middle class are poor, and the wealthy are super wealthy. Nothing more, there will be no crash and things will continue to get better, for the wealthy. No-one cares about middle and low income class anymore, they're not relevant.
ReplyDeleteIt is crashing! Everyone I know is losing their jobs one by one. Businesses are saying they are dead. The exception being car dealers during the cash for clunkers program.
ReplyDeleteI know the government is criminal and I choose not to believe them. I know the banks have bought out the politicians, the media and our children's futures. B.O. is just a Goldman Sachs puppet, the Fed is a private cartel for profit, so why should I believe them?
Inflation is a tabu subject, so you KNOW it is coming. Hard and fast.
10:04 - why are you here if you think the economy is and will be rosy? This blog/info is for those who think otherwise. You are free to believe whatever you want.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, the lady doth protest too much. I wonder if someone's drawing a salary.
ReplyDeleteIt might , if the government would let the economy run its natural course, but it keeps throwing money at it and proping it up. I still see the malls packed , restaurants packed, endless amounts of stores open (bricks and mortar, and online)really , you need how many nail salons in one town? how many gaps in one area? the list goes on and on. and traffic is still congested, so people have enough money for filling up the tanks, buses are 3/4empty. Maybe a collapse, but not if they keep throwing money at it.
ReplyDeleteFor the one's who are saying the economy is going to boom, you need to go to your bosses and tell them no one is buying that line in this blog. Go back to CNBC, not here please.
ReplyDeleteI just love trolls...the more brain-dead and argumentative, the better! Stupid trolls means that 'someone' can't find smart people to push an agenda upon us sheeple-no-more.
ReplyDeleteMore on topic-I find the four reasons given by Arbitrary vote to be rather repetitive and more a list of symptoms than a list of causes. One cause is likely 'fractional reserve banking' which is unsustainable for very long. Even the Babylonians knew this-which is why they had a debt jubilee every so often. Other causes are resource depletion, like Peak Oil. We just can't seem to pump that black gold fast enough to satisfy human needs and greed. In May of 2005 crude oil production was at an all time high, and nearly $150 a barrel three years later could not drive production higher. Oil wells used to be drilled by hand and animal power. Those days are long long gone.
Now we have a shrinking economy. Fractional reserve banking collapses when the economy shrinks for very long-so the gubbermint poured trillions of dollars they printed up into the insolvent banks. Welcome to Debtistan.
Irresponsible businesses and individuals are still getting loans and credit, once that ends, yes collapse. Until then I don't see it.
ReplyDeleteCome sit in a tax office this season and you can make a good judgment of the economy. It was bad last year and the layoffs are still going. I'm not looking forward to seeing clients this year with unemployment benefits running out.
ReplyDeleteGuys I am quitting this blog, Obama is a Hero. This collapse is not going to happen. I lost my job months ago and could not find one until last week. I now have three employers wanting my services. Some of my friends who lost their job were able to find a new one as well.
ReplyDeleteFor all those still hoping for a collapse, there is no harm in hoping, who knows it can happen in 200 yrs
exactly , everyone can find a job to pay off their loans, maybe not a career but a job. No one wants a collapse, we just want people to pay their bills, stop spending and save.
ReplyDeleteI agree, we don't want a collapse. We just don't want to be caught ill prepared with a heavy debt load like the dillusional sheeple are when the greater depression hits home.
ReplyDeleteThe reason banks are STILL lending irresponsibly is because WE BAILED THEM OUT! Why would they learn a lesson? They have an unlimited line of credit from the FED. The next round of bank bailouts will be caused by ARM mortgages and commercial real estate.
ReplyDeleteAll the people who refuse to believe their little world is coming down on them click here.
I coming to this country for to find the job. Now after one year I pay for the house and make a big cleaning business. Before I no speak english, but I for coming legally from mexico. I had to do many things to come over to here correctly, and the people they say I am illegal, when I try for to do things right, and work very hard for my family.
ReplyDeleteI think you maybe try to go to my country and for to find a job or to start the business...it is impossible to doing.
Maybe people over here they have to much problem with the Government. I going thru heel to come here legally, and now I paying taxes like crazy. It's ok because my life is better. When I made the business for the recycle bottles in mexico to sell back to the beer company, the competition they come and break all the bottles in the warehouse for to put us out of business.
This is how stupid crazy my people are down there.
Juan