In an article for the March/April issue of
Foreign Affairs, "Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos," due out later this week, author and historian Niall Ferguson posits that the life cycles of great powers might not follow the long-accepted pattern of gradual rise and fall. Rather, he says, "it is possible that this whole conceptual framework is, in fact, flawed," and that empires fall quickly and without warning. With that in mind, Ferguson explores what it might mean for the geopolitical status quo.
If empires are complex systems that sooner or later succumb to sudden and catastrophic malfunctions, rather than cycling sedately from Arcadia to Apogee to Armageddon, what are the implications for the United States today? First, debating the stages of decline may be a waste of time—it is a precipitous and unexpected fall that should most concern policymakers and citizens. Second, most imperial falls are associated with fiscal crises. All the above cases were marked by sharp imbalances between revenues and expenditures, as well as difficulties with financing public debt. Alarm bells should therefore be ringing very loudly, indeed, as the United States contemplates a deficit for 2009 of more than $1.4 trillion—about 11.2 percent of gdp, the biggest deficit in 60 years—and another for 2010 that will not be much smaller. Public debt, meanwhile, is set to more than double in the coming decade, from $5.8 trillion in 2008 to $14.3 trillion in 2019. Within the same timeframe, interest payments on that debt are forecast to leap from eight percent of federal revenues to 17 percent.
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Like I have said before, empires inevitably collapse. And there are many examples when they collapsed rapidly, The Mayan Empire and Easter Island being just two examples. When it comes to hierarchical societies, we humans love to strip our resources and land bare and our societies tend to become overly complex and unfree spaces, eventually leading themselves to catostrophic problems and events, be they natural, economic, or war. So why not society without hierarchy? Because people apaprently like to be enslaved.
ReplyDelete$ = $atan = $heep = $lave = $tupidity = $tarvation
ReplyDeleteSatan is a metaphor to describe man, who was among the angels, but fell from the stars. We do evil things to each other and ourselves.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand, why are markets improving if there are such bad signs everywhere. Someone has it wrong and there sure are a lot of people around with a hell of a lot of money to buy so many stocks.
ReplyDeleteSomeone please explain if things are getting worse, how the markets can continue to improve?
anon 11:21,
ReplyDeleteask uncle Ben? I trade futures daily and watch every tick of this market. The involvement of the Fed is amazing. The are in deep and have made some nice coin. Ever wonder the real reason we aren't allowed inside the Fed's books? Be that as it may, they are not that smart and they will eventually get caught and/or blow it. So just be prepared for the worse and hope for the best.
3 weeks ago, your president began railing on Goldman Sachs and speaking about the 'Volker' rule. That could of had some impact on GS profits. You notice the market began a nice 3% correction the next 2 weeks, until that topic quietly dissappeared. Now, voila, markets back up. Or, you can disagree and believe the media that we are in a new bull market, your choice.
The original model is not broken; in fact it preformed quite well.
ReplyDeleteThe progressives in this country have / from Harding on forward done everything in their power to deplete the working middle class and give that wealth to the Elite and to the welfare state. And done a good job of it too.
As far as the markets are concerned - it is all just blue smoke and mirrors. I live in the North East & have been in The Nat. Gas business
for almost 30 years.
When we went into this last "downturn" Nat. Gas was at $12.75/ MCF. In the midst of the worst and coldest winter we've had in decades
Nat. Gas continues to fall // today at $4.76 MCF.
Why ? We are not piping any significant volume to manufacturers - and believe me if your in the Northeast and your making something - you aren't burning wood or coal or Nuclear your buring Natural gas .
Not now they ain't - our lines are FULL and so are the compressor stations FULL to capacity.
THIS FACT DOES NOT LIE
11:21, the reason for the markets doing ok is the fact that we have the three biggest banks doing 70% of the trading...what does that tell you?
ReplyDeleteBullshit is what it is
10:55
ReplyDeleteUnfree space? What country are you from? Obviously not the U.S. and if you are, you haven't driven around the country. There is so much space in this country it's ridiculous. What a bunch of mumbo jumbo.
5:06 We cannot continue to sell and not mfg. It is catching up with us daily. Even know the mkt is correcting because of info that breaks. I agree that the big banks are playing our markets along with the Feds. I don't know if it is possible, but I sometimes question how legit the whole market up an down is. It seems to me that the Feds are in a Ponzie scheme. They spend money and print more money and invest some. Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteRight. The Fed prints more money and buys stocks and bonds with it. It's called 'Providing Liquidity'.
ReplyDeleteIt's also called devaluing the currency in economics 101.
The Fed is happy that the majority of Americans have NO education whatsoever when it comes to the economy and how it works.
The hell with all the gloom and doom, I have a good job and am going to take a big fucking holiday this summmer. I am sick of all the fear mongering, hell even GM is hiring back hundreds of laid off help and another 1200 for it's new car plant.....I think things are actually getting better and am sick of living like a frugal person and am going to live it up a little bit, this Matrix will just go on forever and I am going to have fun while it lasts. Phuck it
ReplyDelete12:27 Im with you im still prepared but im done trying to figure it out im going to live and see what happens. I wont be surprized by anything
ReplyDelete