With Wednesday's ADP report and Thursday's jobless claims data laying the groundwork for Friday's unemployment report, there's an intense focus on jobs from Wall Street to Washington D.C. and beyond.
But there's really only one jobs figure that matters, says John Lekas, senior portfolio manager for the $320 million Leader Short-Term Bond Fund: The U-6 or "real" unemployment number.
U6 is more important than the headline unemployment rate because it includes both the unemployed and "underemployed" workers faced with reduced hours who "still can't pay their bills," Lekas tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "I think that's a more representative number."
More jobs weakness ahead. More bearish than most, Lekas sees the headline unemployment rate rising to 10% in February and climbing to 15% or 16% by mid-year. Even more dire, he sees the "real" unemployment figure surging to 25%.
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Is this crash ever going to happen if so when.Iused to believe now i amnot so sure.
ReplyDelete@8:07
ReplyDeleteOh it will happen but remember that the US economy is a behemoth...
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As for 25% Unemployed, I think we are close to 22% now as Shadow Stats is reporting.. The Govt is putting it as 16-17% but they are fudging and massaging those numbers. (duh, like everything else!) Not counting people that should be counted and so on.
Creative accounting is all the rage. I call it by the old mafia term.
"COOKING THE BOOKS!!"
Real unemployment is headed beyond 40%.
ReplyDeleteReason being: the U.S. Government will have to devalue and/or print its way out of its fiscal mess in the not-too-distant future. This will cause imports to skyrocket, including oil, crushing more and more household budgets to death.
There's no such thing as corporate taxes. It is the consumer who pays for it all when he buys a service or product. Kill the consumer, kill corporate taxes, in fact, all taxes.
Without taxes, no government and no safety net.
The consumer is also the employer, not corporations.
Governments are not in charge. Consumers are. And the consumer is shutting down because he's broke and/or can't get credit.
I read some of the comments with the original article and they are just as scary as the article: people who want our "socialist" government to stop paying Social Security, Medicare, and welfare. Yeah, that's really going to help solve the problem of no jobs--add another 50 million desperate people added to the 30 million without full-time jobs. If that doesn't cause a bloody revolution, what will?
ReplyDeleteWe need true change in this country to offset 30 years of middle-class destruction. Ending two wars and cutting our obscene defense budget would be a real start. Putting the banksters in jail and taking away their bonus would be a real start. Throwing out corrupt politicians would be a real start. Taking away tax breaks for outsourcing would be a real start.
Now all we have to do is get Congress to do something for the American people instead of the corporations.
You know, EA, I do believe your blog has the dubious honor of having attracted some weird com mentors, above and beyond the weirdness level most of us are willing to accommodate.
ReplyDeletePeople bashing genital reproduction?
What the.
This is what happens to human beings that do lots of weird drugs, worship Satan, eat their own feces in black magick rituals? They start bad mouthing 'the system' of endless cycles of rebirth and genital reproduction?
Oh yeah that's gonna make that Mara bitch go away?
Because we all know that the enlightened masters who have conquered death are posting on some coming economic depression blog.
People please do us a favor.
If you're fucked up to the point that you think hurting other people is a good thing, if you can't love anybody anymore,
do one honorable thing in your life and blow your brains out.
We don't need you around.
Thank you.
To add to 8:59, I have always thought that the true UE is far higher than 22%, more like 45%, given the amount of people on SS and Disability and so on. Back during the 30's there wasnt any of these programs for retirement, you worked till you couldnt and lived with your children after that or died and all of these people are not now considered unemployed, so what are they, retired, disabled, thats unemployed. Social Security sucked working people out of the work force in the thirties and WW2 drafted thousands out of the workforce and did not return them all to the states looking for jobs. Does this mean a big war needs to happen to cancel out a bunch of people. I say the real UE rate as measured back in the 30's is more like 45% right now. Tell me if any of you all have thought the same>
ReplyDelete8:56, based on this blog poll, I safely agree with your 40% and beyond. When unemployment hits 100%, we shall celebrate for sheep will start learning real living skills.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope sheep are waking up to the fact that we need very little money if any to live.
ReplyDeleteMy car runs on recycled vegetable oil. We have a network of farmers so wherever we go, we get free stay on farms.
Each of us contributes only one to two hours a day maintaining farms.
People are suffering unless they are in the elite class of worker. The Government employee. They are handing out bonuses, going to conferences, you name it.
ReplyDeleteIt won't end until people vote out the politicians supporting this lunacy. Only places thriving are doing so on the phoney money the Fed prints.
10:02 I have been saying the same thing for years glad someone sees it my way. Hey add to that all the federal workers state workers county workers city workers that contribute nothing to the system just eat our tax dollars doesnt leave many people paying for all these hand outs does it
ReplyDelete11:11 Ok so we all know fed prints phony money. So what do we do? To fuck fed is easy. Just get all to print money.
ReplyDeleteDespite the doom and gloom about economy in a world I believe to be "fake" just as much as you with debt slaves and perpetual printing of money producing nothing, people are still coming to Las Vegas! Obama was just here and now it seems the sheeple follow. Our parking lot was full last weekend for Nascar, and the call centers are swamped with people calling to make reservations in the next month, if theres money to gamble the economy can't be doing that poorly. No way is UE numbers 40% that is nonsense! Keep waiting for it to collapse, I think some people here want it to happen well keep on waiting while we live our short lives, yes America is screwed up but mine-as-well hold on and enjoy the ride!!!! (while you still can)
ReplyDelete1:00 I cvannot believe yopu haven't been called every name in the book and if course a troll.
ReplyDeleteEvery damn time I say something similar; related to my life experiences here in S.W. New York - I just get busted on unmercifully & I think youi've hit on something I have not considered.
I think more than a few people out there WANT the USA to go down, down, down. I cannot give you their reasoning; but why else would they always be so unwelcome to a bright spot somewhere?
They wanty chaos
100 is a liar, the parking lot was half full, and nascar has been lowering the prices, they are in desparation mode, the city is collapsing and most 20 store strip malls have only 1/4 occupancy, hotels are selling rooms for $19.99 a night and $1.00 blackjack is back, that was the price of blackjack in the 1970's, 1:00 is a bald faced Liar
ReplyDelete1pm here, @6:35, If I could have posted a photo last night of the PACKED parking lot you would not call me a liar, I don't know what part of Vegas you were at but people were parking in non designated areas last night where I was and occupancy was 100%! I saw this with my own two eyes. As far as dollar blackjack is concerned, Strip hotels are still a 5 buck minium again maybe you are talking downtown Vegas. Point is more people are starting to visit again just merely making an observation! And BTW step your grammar up it's "BOLD" faced liar not "BALD" SMFH. The city is not "collapsing" just yet. As for strip malls well retail is down nationwide yes commercial real estate in Las Vegas is in trouble however we still have tourism to driver our economy!!!
ReplyDelete126 is a liar, all over town there are signs that say nascar tickets $49.00, it used to cost much more, now they are desperate and are lowering prices, sahara hotel on the strip $1.00 blackjack, commercial and residential real estate are collapsing, hotels are 19.99 a night, the city is in a major depression, 126 is a liar, I will post photos of empty mall lots, empty foreclosures, and empty shopping spaces later in the week as I take the pictures and upload them, farking liar 126
ReplyDeleteI live in Las Vegas at Flamingo and Decatur, this town in on the verge of a total breakdown. The other day I saw a Military Convoy of Humvees 50 of them with Military on them driving down the East end of Tropicana Near Nellis, Looked like they are drilling for Martial Law, Also the Police are Federalized and are looking more Military as the days go by, Helicopters like crazy in the skies at Night and the town is Broke. City Centre is already in trouble and only open for a month. Gang are arming up and the grafitti is up everywhere, the jails are busting at the seams, crime is higher than ever and the homeless, well you cant miss them, they are everywhere you look, Yes we are in a Depression for sure!
ReplyDeleteWhen you can keep printing money then will it ever really crash?? I think it will not crash but they still will keep taking the nations resources and pooring down of the people.. a theft is taking place to the end.
ReplyDelete