The current price of gold and the price of silver – the silver:gold ratio – continues to hover around the 67:1 range which is way out of whack with the historical relationship between the two precious metals. It begs the question:
“Is now the perfect time to buy silver instead of the much more expensive gold metal?”
It is critical to step away from all the noise and clutter that passes for knowledge and take the time to gain perspective on where the price of gold and silver are in terms of the ‘big picture’, i.e., where they are in respect to their historical relationship with each other over the long, medium and short term and, based on those relationships, how they might perform in the future.
Bull Market Stages
The key to a secular gold/silver bull is the collective gold/silver transactions of investors worldwide buying and selling gold/silver that ultimately sets the price and determines their fortunes. The collective demand trends of gold/silver investors effectively divide precious metals bulls into 3 distinct demand-driven stages, namely:
The key to a secular gold/silver bull is the collective gold/silver transactions of investors worldwide buying and selling gold/silver that ultimately sets the price and determines their fortunes. The collective demand trends of gold/silver investors effectively divide precious metals bulls into 3 distinct demand-driven stages, namely:
1. Stage One which occurs when a devaluation of the dominant currency in which gold is priced, i.e. the USD, leads to a moderate increase in the price of gold. Stage One for gold began on February 15th, 2001 when it reached a 22-year secular low of just $255.10.
2. Stage Two which occurs when the decoupling of gold from local-currency devaluation begins to outpace the dollar’s losses and gold starts rising significantly in virtually all currencies worldwide. Stage Two began on June 5th, 2005 when gold (at $417.67US) first surpassed 350 Euros for the first time.
3. Stage Three which occurs when the general public around the world starts investing in gold and this deluge of capital into gold causes it to escalate dramatically (i.e. to go parabolic) in price. We are approaching Stage Three and it will become clearly evident when the price for gold begins its daily record ascents to dramatically higher prices.
Gold
We are now in the very early stages of Stage Three with gold having gone up 24% in 2009 and up 13.3% in the first 6 months of 2010. As such there are no shortage of prognosticators who see gold going parabolic reminiscent of 1979 when gold rose 289.3% in the course of just over a year (from a $216.55 closing price on Jan. 1, 1979 to a closing price of $843 per ounce barely a year later on Jan. 21, 1980) and 128% higher in a late-1979 parabolic blow-off of just under 11 weeks! A 289% increase in the price of gold from $1250 would put gold at $4,866. That being the case what appear on the surface to be rather outlandish projections of what the bull market in gold will top out at don’t seem quite so far-fetched.
We are now in the very early stages of Stage Three with gold having gone up 24% in 2009 and up 13.3% in the first 6 months of 2010. As such there are no shortage of prognosticators who see gold going parabolic reminiscent of 1979 when gold rose 289.3% in the course of just over a year (from a $216.55 closing price on Jan. 1, 1979 to a closing price of $843 per ounce barely a year later on Jan. 21, 1980) and 128% higher in a late-1979 parabolic blow-off of just under 11 weeks! A 289% increase in the price of gold from $1250 would put gold at $4,866. That being the case what appear on the surface to be rather outlandish projections of what the bull market in gold will top out at don’t seem quite so far-fetched.
Pretty soon this blog will be named "The never coming depression" LOL
ReplyDeleteI see the gloom and doom goes back over two years, and yet here we are still all posting on this blog with full bellies and a roof over our head.
Where is MAD MAX?
LOL
559 mad max god mad, threatened his wife and lost his agency, he will be coming for you soon.
ReplyDelete5:59 if a tornado in the distance missed your house THIS TIME, you assume everything in your neighborhood is fine? The world shrunk 50% over the last few years and you very soon will have no idea what will hit you. SOME stupid ignorant sheeple think the same.
ReplyDelete5:59 yuor words might fit some of the quotes by various people before the Great Depression:
ReplyDeleteSeptember 1929
"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury.
October 14, 1929
"Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board." — New York Times
December 5, 1929
"The Government's business is in sound condition." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
December 28, 1929
"Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression." — Associated Press dispatch.
January 13, 1930
"Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today." - News item.
January 21, 1930
"Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction." - News dispatch from Washington.
January 24, 1930
"Trade recovery now complete President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by own power. No Stimulants Needed! Progress in all lines by the early spring forecast." - New York Herald Tribune.
March 8, 1930
"President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days." - Washington Dispatch.
May 1, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity." - President Hoover
June 29, 1930
"The worst is over without a doubt." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
August 29, 1930
"American labor may now look to the future with confidence." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
September 12, 1930
"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
June 9, 1931
"The depression has ended." - Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
Gold has gotten out of hand so that it's not a good investment anymore. Silver is more affordable. Don't forget to buy physical gold and silver, not paper certificates, which are a scam.
ReplyDeleteI have been buying and selling second hand jewelery for a long time and I always make money. You get a better rate of return than trying to bet on the stock market. Like I said elsewhere, knowledge is the key. I know how to spot the real thing and I know what all those tiny numbers mean....
Obama keeps telling us things are getting better all the time. He must be smoking more than just cigarettes.
ReplyDeleteif the fed ever let silver go to even 50$ an ounce you will want food and water cause the game will be up.
ReplyDelete9:33 and your reasoning is..?
ReplyDeleteTo 10:05: If I may put words in 9:23's mouth so to speak...He means if there ever is a huge surge in Gold and Silver to the point that Gold is in the 1000's and silver in the 100's or 1000's it means we've hit hyperinflation.
ReplyDeleteI like gold and silver but I don't want THAT to happen...It means EVERYTHING will shoot up in prices...Nothing will hold it's value especially necessities.
Gas will also go up and once that happens it's game over...EVERYTHING is based on petrol...Fertilizer to grow your food, make your products, move your products.
Like it's been said many times...Gold and silver are a hedge NOT a moneymaker so much...They just hold their value till the next currency takes control...You may make some money but what good is it in a land with no jobs/food/services/high crime?
10:53 it wouldn't matter if you own GOLD/SILVER! You will be able to trade these commodities for land, factories, farms, etc. Its the poor sheeple who refuse to believe any of this will ever happen. They feel their gov't will save them. The individuals that hold PM's will be the elite. Who cares about the sheeple, they have their chance RIGHT NOW to join this small but growing elite. The "holder" will not need jobs/food/services. He will control them.
ReplyDeleteTo 10;53...You are correct everything is based on PETROL! Thats why Russia collapsed they ran out of cheap energy. We convinced the arabs to flood the market with cheap oil to kill russias petrol business and it worked. when Russia collapsed u could see dead frozen people driving down the street. mothers and fathers pimping out there daughters for gas. the usa is about to get woke the fuck up! people will have no idea what hit them.......its coming and soon....
ReplyDelete10:59 you are living a bit of a fantasy...Will gold and silver shoot up? Hell yes but who actually owns enough to be safe, happy and fed till he dies or passes it on to his sons/daughters?
ReplyDeleteYou assume that people will just go from city dwellers to farmers and workers.
In an economic collapse a large percentage of 310 million people will panic/loot/rape...Once they finish destroying the cities and ransacking them they will move to where the food or products are produce...Fiefdoms will grow...Look at post war Japan and post collapse USSR for reference.
Plus there is a gap while things get settled to give gold and silver it's worth/value...I like gold and silver but I don't believe that history shows it to be worth much when anarchy is everywhere...In fact it makes you a target.
11:33 perhaps you don't get it. The sheeple WILL NOT revolt. Did they revolt when the Nazis sent them to the gas chambers? Did the sheep revolt when they were used as slaves in the south for the big land owners? Zimbabwe? NO! That is why the elite will rule forever, regardless of this little fantasy you have in your head. Times have changed, the masses have been expertly been conditioned by the media over 30 years, NOT TO REVOLT.
ReplyDelete11:33 the fema camp will take care of you. The people with GOLD/SILVER will probably be able to pay their way out in lieu of bribes. Somebody will take the bribes. Always corruption exists since the beginning of time. GOLD/SILVE will be your only saviour.
ReplyDelete5;59 LOL everything is fine Obozo save us unemployment never went over 8% Oh I mean 9% Oh no ok I mean 10%. Offical Whitehouse insider.
ReplyDelete11:42 maybe you're right...But since I work in the prison system I believe that the criminals will revolt...Not for ideoligal patriotic reasons but out of greed.
ReplyDeleteAs for Zimbabwe?...They looted and destroyed most of the major farms...It used to be a well fed well run country with tons of resources now look at it...ANARCHY...Starvation...Sickness...No services...No fuel and high crime.
You assume that a 5%-10% criminal element in society can't push it over the edge? I say they can...In the end we're just words or blips on a screen...Let history prove one of us right...I rather have your world but people tend to do not what's right but what's easiest.
11:55 I never said I don't like gold or silver nor have a lil...What I'm saying is you assume everything falls into place and people just bow to gold or silver...I say there will be a couple of years of messes/tribulations till you can properly used it...Once the gangs have subsided...By the way (and no joke) I am a secondary response FEMA member...So if I see the camps it might be looking in not out.
ReplyDeletenoodles, the people in Zimbabwe panned for GOLD so they can pay for their daily needs. They VERY FEW looted and destroyed, the rest did what they had to do to make a living. As for the 'criminals" outside in todays society? The very few will revolt then get inserted in fema camps. The masses will be petrified then listen to the leaders obediently, like they do today. Education and the media has made us too stupid to do anything but obey.
ReplyDelete11:55 in russia stalin set up fake shops that buy gold after selling it was outlawed. the people that tried to sell to these shops got 10 years hard labor. people with gold and silver will have to be very careful...
ReplyDelete11:42
ReplyDeleteThose who walked into the gas chambers had no choice, they were disarmed weeks, months, years before. Slaves never revolted even though during that time, black slaves outnumbered white slave owners 100 to 1. They did not revolt because they were not allowed to own, posses or carry any weapons. To even threaten a white man with a pitch fork would end his life on the spot.
You might do yourself a big favor and read the autobiography of Fredrick Douglas. Those who taught him to read and write, were subject to a death penalty. MLK deserves his day, Fredrick Douglas deserves a week. This written by a white man.
Citizens of the United States who are not armed and prepared to fight will calmly and quietly pack up their families and drive to their assigned FEMA camp. Those who understand that taking back this country, will come at a high price. Our founding fathers gave us permission to revolt.
...That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness...
Less than 5% of the colonists fought in the Revolutionary War. Lord knows whet the other 95% were up to.
When hyperinflation hits, your cash will have no value. My gold and silver and lead will be priceless. I'll be able to trade a bottle of water for 50 pounds of flour. Overnight we will turn into a barter-based economy. Your big screen LCD TV will mean nothing to me. Your home theater will be useless to me. 10 pounds of 20 gage copper wire might get my attention.
When the USSR collapsed, it fell hard and fast, almost overnight. I'm sure plenty of people were thinking "WTF"? when they saw the Russian version of the Whitehouse surrounded by tanks and heavily armed ground forces.
The MSM will continue to feed us lies and distractions (Lindsey Lohan and Mel Gibson) till the very last moment.
Trust me on this.
3:56
ReplyDeleteHow will you protect yourself. Against one or two. When the looters find out you have something, they will come take it away from you. Again you may stop one or two. But what about the 20 or 30? Once or twice. Third time that bunch takes your life, rapes and then kills you wife and then all formerly, your stuff. The gov that arises 2-3 years after the collapse will take what is left. They will take your land and the assets on it. You will get bupkiss.
What happened in the USSR was the assertion of absolute rule. There will be a new currency and gold and silver will be priced in that new currency.
I think it is nice to buy both. To benefit from silver and gold, you need to research and have a plan. Also, you should know how to implement it.
ReplyDelete4:24 & 3of :56
ReplyDeleteIt is a constant wonder of mine & someday I shall try to pen a book on the subject of one's one sphere experiences which lead to assuptions
based on merely said sphere.
I am not exactly sure of a title yet - but; someday I will.
3:56 is going to trade a bottle of water for 50# of flour. Now, why would a bottle of water command that price when I own over 750 acres with
at least 5 year round springs that have NEVER gone dry and 3 dug wells all capable of producing
35 gallons of pure, limestone water per minute.
Hell ! I'd be a quadtrillionaire overnite ! Not likely 'cause guess what? My neighbor has just about the same thing on his farm & the neighbor after that etc. etc. etc.
4:24 You need to brush up on your weaponry. And I agree with all other posts here regarding the
RIGHT to own firearms - it is the ONLY real deterant we have left. A man with a high quality
12 guage pump shotgun with #4 buckshot and an extended magazine tube can wade thru 20 people in a matter of seconds - if you think I'm joking or exaggerating even a little bit - do some reserach in your area on local gun clubs who have shoots etc. & find one that has bowling pin shoots or something similar & go and observe - it will be a revelation.
4:24
ReplyDeleteFirst off the looters will need to find my stored food and water. I am prepared to fight to the end:
- Without mercy
- Without compassion
- Without regret
That's the blessing that comes with old age. I have lived as full a life as anyone deserves. We will all die someday. You (as a young man) can choose to try and take my food and water and you might die in the process. Will it be worth it? Will your wife or girlfriend cry over your dead body?
I'm well past the half way point in my life. I would rather die of a heart attack, while working in my garden, having hurt no one, but anyone who thinks it's a good idea to try and take my food and water meant for me and my family will die trying.
If you do manage to kill me, my 11-year old son knows how to load and charge my AR-15.
6:24
ReplyDeleteWith that kind of water well, you'll get all the unwelcome visitors you have never wanted. A 12 gage is a wonderful thing, but I'll suggest you'll need much more than that.
7:20 - I don't think you understand what I meant. It isn't just " my springs or well"
ReplyDeletethere is literally thousands of said spring/wells here in North Central Pennsylvania
Hell bells man - if water is ever worth that much I know 4 counties that are going to be extremely weathy.
Up to 75 yards you cannot beat a good 12 guage shotgun with #4 buckshot - I can lay down a field of fire as big as a 24 X 24' garage and be reloaded twice before your at my feet. And in this part of the country we have alot of hills and trees gangs wouldn't really stand much of a chance unless they were really well organized