Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Trends Journal Forecasts 2009 Economic Depression


“You don't have a clue what is going on
and neither do the American people because if they did,
there would be a revolution in this country.”
- Former Texas Gov. John Connally to Gerald Celente, 1992
Retail and Commercial Real Estate Collapses
One is going to be the collapse in the retail sector. It's already estimated that about 150,000 stores, retail shops, are going to close - both chain stores and smaller stores are going to close in 2009. That adds, of course, to the unemployment, but it would also add greatly to the commercial real estate glut. If you thought the sub-prime problem was bad, wait until you see this one. Commercial real estate is much more heavily leveraged than even in the sub-prime sector.

And then we look at the collapse already in the financial sector. We saw Wachovia, we saw IndyMac and Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns, Merill Lynch, Lehman Brothers - either get gobbled up or go under. And all the bond companies - names people don't know. The point being: Who is going to take up all that commercial space and business parks they have emptied?

The answer in both retail and the office space - the people who are going to take over that vacant space is nobody! You're going to see a glut of real estate that we have never seen before - ghost malls are going to be spreading around the country. So now, that's where the collapse really happens because how are these people who leveraged all this commercial real estate going to service these loans? The answer is: they are not! We're going to be moving into the Greatest Depression.

First, I want to make it clear why this is going to be worse and we're not ‘Gloom and Doomers.’ We're just looking at facts.

One of the things to remember is that most people are one job away from losing everything. It's not only the corporate greed that brought us into this. People went way beyond their means and borrowed above their heads with these things called ‘home equity loans.’ Build on that addition! Go on the vacation! Buy the SUV! Borrow for whatever it might have been. So people went way beyond their means as well. As I said, they are one pay check away from losing everything.

We're going to see massive foreclosures. They are already at record levels. They are going to continue to spread. There is no stopping this using the two tools the government has:

- Adjust interest rates, which are now down to about zero on the Fed Funds rate.

- Or print more money. But you can't print your way to prosperity!

I mentioned home equity loans. Back in the 1930s, nobody had such a thing. If you had a second mortgage, you were considered a loser. Back then, most people did not own homes. They did not have credit cards. They were not burdened with $14 trillion worth of debt! You only bought what you could afford back then.

And also back then - very important - we weren't fighting losing wars with a huge military-industrial complex that has cost us well over $2 trillion already and is building as we're sending more troops, as we're hearing now, into Afghanistan.

And back then in the 1930s - and this is the key point going back to what I said about productive capacity. When we finally got out of the Great Depression, it was the onset of World War II. We were the manufacturing giant of the world. We manufactured our way out of the Great Depression. We no longer have that manufacturing base.

So, having said that, what we're left with now is a nation of clerks. I look at these job offerings. You go into a Quick Stop gas station and they say, ‘Have a career with us.’ What kind of career?! What happens to a young person who gets out of college with a diploma?

So, you're going to have massive unemployment. You're going to have rising crime, a lot of petty crime and violent crime. It goes with the territory and people better get used to it. And local and state governments are not going to solve it by putting more police on the streets, unless the government is going to turn this into a totally fascist country.
LINK

21 comments:

  1. the cnbc operatives still hoping for a mid year recovery. ahahaha

    who the hell falls for these lies and scumbags...

    they all need to be tried for treason...

    these cnbc operatives keep lying to people to get back into market and its hurting a lot people

    ReplyDelete
  2. they are moving FAST, write your senators,goveners FASTER or we will definitly become Prisoners under the guise of goverment aid. STOP PROCRASTINATING JUST DO IT!!!

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  3. The American people have been sucked into believing everything that the new president says. The proposed $800B stimulus package is nothing but Democratic pork, with a little Republican pork added to it to make them cross the aisle. Read it yourself: Stimulus Discussion Over?

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  4. It's fear that's bankrolling the crisis. Abundance is everywhere. The money is just in the pockets of other people. They're just so scared, they're not letting go of it. So they stop buying. When they stop buying, stores don't stack up on merchandise. And when no orders are placed, manufacturer's stop making goods. Jobs are lost. Then a crisis begins to snow ball. There's no money to buy. No market for manufacturers. It's a shame. The market's scared stiff!! It's the scarcity mentality that's fuels a crisis. But it's a lie, there's enough for everyone. Greed isn't about abundance. It's all about fear.

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  5. Wake up Americans!!! Our country has been sold short by greedy politicians, corporations, special interest groups and the military industrial complex. Both of the 2 major political parties have been totally corrupted. The stimulus package is only about maintaining the status quo of inequality.

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  6. Yea, were going to all roam the streets and rummage through the garbage while these mcmansions sit empty and high rise condoss become pidgeon perches. Reset all the morgages to 4%.

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  7. This will be a depression!! All coments above are true. This is now a global economy, welcome to it! Our standard of living is going to go way down. I am a optomistic person but, have come to conclusion that the best course is to develope skills for self reliance. Store some food and essentials now but,start a large garden and learn storage technique your grandmother did

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  8. Pepet said... Umm no we dont have money anymore we gave it to the afghanistan people so they could rebuild their economy! irony has never been more bitter and our i must say at least our current president is trying with a stimulous package sure your grand kids will pay for it but its your great great great great grandkids that are going to pay for what the previous president set into motion with a war and aid in another country

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  9. Just transferred all of my 401k and IRA money out of equities earlier this week into the most conservative available options. Stopped repeating the Wall Street mantra that I'm just locking in my losses and need to dollar-cost average for the long-term. I could be 100% wrong, but think that we're experiencing a sucker rally and that the market is going to go down and go down hard. It took until late 1982 for the Dow to even break 1,000. As recently as 1990, the Dow was under 3,000 points. Even accounting for inflation, this is a pretty eye-opening chart on historic trends.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#symbol=%5EDJI;range=my


    Sure don't have any faith in our political idiots in D.C. Here's a great quote from a master Nazi propagandist who would probably fit in very well with most of our politicians today: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."

    ~ Joseph Goebbels

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  10. I think the only thing to change is for new technologies to emerge and also 1 person working and higher wages.
    Also somebody home with kids................

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  11. This is the only soulution is to keep less people working but pay much higher wage.
    And it will be good for everyone, stay at home parent, man or women, kids will be happier and we will become more relaxed Nation......no more run , run ,,run,,,,,

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  12. WE NEED TO LOWER GAS PUT THE THEVES IN JAIL AND GIVE THE SMALL BUSS MAN A 0%INTERIST LOAN LIKE WE DO FOR NEW IMAGRINTS WE ARE THE NEW IMAGRANTS DO AWAY WITH FICO SCORES JUDGE PEOPLE BUY THERE PROGRESS THE BANKS HAVE LOST THERE CREDIT WE NEED TO START ALL OVER WITH NEW BLOOD NOT TAINTED CONS!!

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  13. 2012 is just around the corner and then it's all over anyway.

    bubye...

    thelittleguylobby.org

    ReplyDelete
  14. lies and lies the white house says unemployment's down only for bankers and car dealerships sales men only get 150.00 for each cash for clunker deal while toyota gets the rest we need prof. of the real amount of people unemployed it will scare everyone!!and cause depression

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  15. The Nature of Planned Change

    When I look back at the Obama's camp motto for "Change" it seems that people got caught up in the election hype and assume that change is always a "positive one" and for the betterment of the citizens. We know that in many cases this is a fallacy.

    Upon further investigation of planned change, there are three models and the one model that ironically seems to be the one the "Global Elites" have chosen to employ is called the "Positive Change" model although there is really nothing positive about it.

    For example, We see changes in the financial, corporate, education and healthcare sectors.
    This change is brought about by a process called "appreciative inquiry." It is a reformist and rebellious form of social constructionism (i.e. Saul Linsky's "Rules for Radicals.")Appreciative inquiry promotes broad member involvement in creating a shared vision about the organization's positive potential and that shared appreciation provides a powerful and guiding image of what the organization could be. In other words, if we look at the United States, North America or Europe, and the rest of the world the planned vision is one of "Global Government."

    The first stage of this model is "initiate the inquiry." it emphasizes member involvement to identify the organiational issue they have the most energy to tackle. If we look back over the previous year it is evident that their primary focus has been the financial takeover of the economy via "Wall Street." Other teams involved in the change process have focused on military operations around the world, education and and healthcare, to name but a few.

    The second stage is to "inquire into the best practices." This stage involves gathering information about what the "best of what is." The G-20 meetings might be an example of this whereby the members exchange information of innovation in which they have been involved. Then, these stories are compiled to create a pool of information that describes the organization as innovative.

    In the third stage, the members identify themes that are common among each of the members. The themes represent the basis of moving from "what is" at the present to "what could be" in the future. Again, look at ideas of a common financial system, healthcare systems, common currencies, common markets on a worldwide basis.

    The fourth stage is to "envision a preferred future." Members examine the themes and challenge the status quo. The members develop a list of "propositions" which should represent a possible picture of the future. Based upon these possibilities, members identify relevant stakeholders (which we are not)and critical organizational processes that must be aligned with each other in order to support the emergence of an envisoned future which we know today at "The New World Order."

    The fifth and final stage involves the design and delivery of ways to create the future of this "New World Order." In this stage, a description of activities and plans necessary to bring about this change are devised. Members make changes and assess the results, make necessary alterations as they proceed ever closer to their dream of "World Government."

    In conclusion, if we look back at George Bush Senior's "New World Order" speech in 1991 he mentioned that is was a big idea. He also mentioned that the "Rule of Law not the law of the jungle" would govern the conduct of nations. Obviously, this is a global conspiracy of the power elite to try and control the masses by whatever means necessary to in order to achieve their goal of "World Government." This notion of what is called "equifanility" suggests that the people in charge may achieve similar results with different initial conditions and in many different ways.

    Terrence Deagle

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  16. Back to Gerald Celente

    "Whether or not you agree with the prognosis, does not alter its outcome; it simply is what it is" - Gerald Celente

    Keep yourself ahead of the curve - seriously consider subscribing to Mr. Celente's publication, The Trends Journal.
    www.TheTrendsJournal.com

    I subscribed earlier this year and wish I would have years ago. Well Worth the investment. (The site provides sample articles too)

    Mr. Celente = a clear voice in a confused world.

    His track record = incredibly accurate for three decades.

    Many people disagree with Mr. Celente's style & comment about his information being sooooo negative, but look around, the man studies society for a living for goodness sake, and if society's trends are not positive trends how would you expect an accurate report? A constant positive about Gerald & his information are the proactive strategies he provides in reference to the information being reported.

    "Think for yourself" - Gerald Celente's motto.

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  17. HAVE LAIED OFF MANY IN THE LAST 3-YEARS THE COMPANYS HAVE ADAPTED WITHOUT THOSE WORKERS SO THEY WONT HIRE ANYWAY THE ONLY JOBS ARE PART TIME OR GOV. WITH OUR MONEY OUR LAST HOPE IS A STEMPLOYMENT IS NOT GOING TO IMPROVE COMPANYS IMULUS TO SMALL BUSSNESS

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