Thursday, March 5, 2009
Consider this: EVERYTHING IS DONE!
Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)
All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
Government debt costs will ramp. This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.
The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.
The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.
It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.
Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.
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Things have been "imminent" for several months now. Isn't emminent moments or perhaps day away. You lose credibility when you time and time again give hard predictions and months go by and nothing. Not saying things aren't bleak. But let's choose our words more carefully.
ReplyDeleteimminent means for sure , a definate , going to happen , its not a timeline definition
ReplyDeleteIf it was years that would be a different story, this will make it imminent: THIS IS SCARY
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090305/pl_afp/financeeconomyusbankinggovernment
This short story is an echo of what many forecasters have already said recently, in fact, since as early as the summer of 2007. Yes, we are headed for chaos in the streets and the financial collapse is imminate. But, remember this is also an unpredictable time that know one has ever experienced before. Therefore, no one really knows for sure the exact way the above scenarios will be played out. Think outside the realm of the ordinary expect something highly unusual to happen and then use reason without emotion, and you will clearly see that a New world Order is staring right at you!! So, watch for events that are highly unusual and leading all of us the wrong direction. Jesus is Lord and the answer, not these Bozos who run the system.
ReplyDeleteWOW...Welcome to California USA....
ReplyDeleteThis is the final curtain call for our government...
Remember people, we will survive this. Things will be different, perhaps more different than we ever expected or imagined, but this won't break our spirits.
ReplyDeleteThis is all going to crash with the policies as they are, or with policies changed.
ReplyDeleteIt's just going to crash. No Republican or Democrat can stop it. I see it in terms of just picking my poison... I'm not deluded into thinking that there is anything or anyone out there who can stop it.
I appreciate what Obama is trying to do. It amounts to having a little pillow for my head while I'm dying (stimulus) or not, I'll take a little pillow while we're all going done.
Why don't you credit this to Karl Denniger, where it came from?
ReplyDeleteNever mind, I missed the link. (Insert embarrassed smiley)
ReplyDeletebrother can you spare a dime and magnum.
ReplyDeletesomeone tell me how this catastorphic scenario going to play out in Canada.Up to this point things arent to bad.Hard to imagine the situation is as dire as protrayed
ReplyDeleteanonymous said:
ReplyDeleteI appreciate what Obama is trying to do. It amounts to having a little pillow for my head while I'm dying (stimulus) or not, I'll take a little pillow while we're all going done.
March 6, 2009 6:06 AM
The only problem is that you now have my pillow:-)
you appreciate that OBAMA is trying to end your world? Good one. Hallelujah to the KING
ReplyDeleteEverything's under control. no need to panic I heard a government official say a couple of days ago.So why all this doom and gloom?.Our paternalistic leader will see no harm comes to us.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeletesomeone tell me how this catastorphic scenario going to play out in Canada.Up to this point things arent to bad.Hard to imagine the situation is as dire as protrayed
Relatively speaking our January unemployment was twice as bad as the U.S since ours was 129,000 and the States was 650,000 and they are 10 times the size of us so its really 65,000 in relative terms. Remember we are tracking 12 months behind the U.S. So by the fall the crap will hit the fan here.
Here's a bright spot. If/When/or ever, the economy gets running like boom again, and your boss who laid you off tries to call you back to work, you can tell him you have decided to lay him off, and he can kiss your everlovin anus.
ReplyDeleteHi hi up
ReplyDeleteBlanks boa
ReplyDeleteWhile it's easy to let the doom and gloom scare us, what most of the articles of this ilk DO NOT provide are good advice as to how to protect ourselves, our savings...I've read here to "buy gold" (done that, have seen the value get stuck below $1,000/ounce), and "diversify into the strongest currencies". STOP RIGHT THERE. WHAT is the "strongest" currency? I have been preparing for this "crisis" for five years, and have bought Canadian, Swiss, Australian, Euro, Chinese, Japanese and Norwegian currencies. Guess what? With some short periods of exceptions (particularly as regards to Japanese Yen's run over the last 4 months or so), ALL of these currencies have LOST significant value to...drum roll please...THE US DOLLAR. So when the authors recommend diversifying into the "strongest" currencies, if they know what they're talking about, they must mean the US Dollar. Keep in mind, I bought into this idea thinking that the US Dollar would fail - and the reality is I've LOST alot of money by investing in the so-called 'strongest' alternative currencies.
ReplyDeleteThe response will be - just give it a little time, and the US Dollar will crash. Forgive me, but I've been hearing that for 3 years. Give me a time frame, PLEASE. And if you can't, then I suspect the authors really have no idea what they are talking about. Keep in mind, readers, that this economic crisis is a WORLD-WIDE event, so ALL currencies are suffering the pain - the US Dollar is suffering the least, because the rest of the world sees it as the 'safest haven' to park their cash. I do not see this changing any time soon - as things get worse around the world, the US dollar only gets stronger...With the HUGE amounts of foreign dollars that I have bought, I HOPE this changes, but take it from someone who has already done the currency exchanges - for the time being - the US Dollar IS the "strongest" currency on the field...
THE DEATH OF THE AMERICAN DREAM
ReplyDeleteI believe that rather than blaming greedy bankers and lenders for causing this "crisis" the truth is that we - members of the 'society of plenty', are simply the victims
of our own greed. Bankers and lenders were simply enablers, the way I see it.
Making money is, alas, "the American way", is it not?
And although it leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of decent folk (read: middle class
people NOT profiting from this crisis), how can you slam someone for making money
in a capitalist system? It's the same attitude we have towards those who 'short' the
market, as if they don't play by the same rules as the rest of us. But the truth is they
DO play be the same rules. Let's face it - they are savvy business people in a business
in which having a conscience is not a prerequisite. They have the same mindset as a
pimp or a drug cartel member, except the real estate business is legal, as it turns out.
Like a drug dealer who peddles escape from pain through chemicals, and the pimp
who sells sexual pleasure, the real estate man (or woman) sits on top of a product with
at least as much as, if not more, psychological appeal.
The "American Dream" is one that has been ingrained in our society
as the ultimate "accomplishment", the 'prize' at the end of the long struggle, the status
symbol which distinguishes those who have 'made it', from those who haven't. It's as
if a mass-hypnosis was cast over the society, and the large home with a white
picket fence, 2-car garage and patio (with a Weber) was the prize. Get it at all costs.
Lie on your loan application, cheat to get that approval, steal other's check stubs and
alter them to appear as your own...just a few of the basic scams used in pursuit of
the dream. Lie, cheat, steal. Do whatever it takes. Get that loan. Get that home.
And millions upon millions did just that. The scope of the current disaster is proof.
The banking/mortgage industry catered to this dream, bending and breaking it's own
rules to profit from the insane pursuit of this prize. When the housing market buckled
under it's own excess, the results have been and are, absolutely catastrophic.
So many industries in this country relied on that dream: Realtors, home builders, material
providers for builders (wood, metals, concrete, glass, etc..), in short the economic components
of the structure. Then there is the interior and decoraters: furniture makers, appliance makers,
plumbing and ventilation, air conditioners, wallpaper, tiles, counter-tops and cabinets, carpet
makers, wide-screen manufacturers....well, you get the picture. In a nutshell, the vast majority
of companies in this nation relied on the ever-expanding home-ownership dream to stay in business.
Their industries were geared to provide all the components of "the dream".
Take away that dream, or the ability of Americans to buy the dream - and the pillars of the economy literally crumble into dust. This is exactly what has happened, and as home buying dies, so dies the American
economy. The consumer has been plucked dry. He has no more cash to buy the next big home, or
to fill it with all the goodies which are part and parcel of such a home. So much of this economy
relied on housing, that it literally cannot function without it! Even though the auto industry takes
a backseat to housing, the same maniacal obsession with automobiles as status symbols and badges
of success, sucked consumers even dryer - and now that the well has run dry, we see the results: The 'big three' automakers are all on the verge of bankruptcy. The only thing that keeps both the zombie banks,
homebuilders and automakers barely alive, is a major injections of taxpayer cash. The printing presses
at the Federal Reserve are working overtime, day and night and weekends, printing fiat currency paper
money, which in the end, will undoubtedly be rendered almost worthless. It will be worth less than
Monopoly money - but that's a whole other story.
We destroyed America for Granite and Stainless Steel, Sodded Lawns and wide screen plasma TV.
ReplyDeleteI guess we took it all for granite - lol - I was going to start a lawn care business a couple of years ago but was too lazy to do it then by luck - My God this is gonna be a long 26 years ahead - Good luck everybody
ReplyDelete