Apr 08, 2009 16:59 ET
New Data Reveals Largest US Banks at Risk of Failure According to Weiss Research: JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo, HSBC USA, Goldman Sachs, SunTrust, Compass, Fifth Third, and Huntington
Derivatives Losses Spreading
JUPITER, FL--(Marketwire - April 8, 2009) - In a press conference held yesterday to review fourth quarter call report data and TheStreet.com bank ratings, Martin D. Weiss of Weiss Research, Inc. concluded that:
-- Three out of four of the nation's largest banks are at risk of failure --
JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo.
-- Also at risk are HSBC USA, Goldman Sachs and large regional banks,
including SunTrust Bank, Compass Bank (Alabama), Fifth Third Bank
(Michigan), Huntington Bank (Ohio) and Etrade Bank (Virginia).
-- The total number of at-risk banks and thrifts rose to 1,816 in the
fourth quarter, from 1,568 banks in the prior quarter, an increase of 16
percent.
Also in the conference, Weiss provided updated commentary on his white paper issued on March 19. Titled "Dangerous Unintended Consequences," the white paper names U.S. banks and thrifts believed to be at risk of failure, using that data to demonstrate that the U.S. government greatly underestimates the scope of the debt crisis, while overestimating its ability to effectively save troubled institutions without severe adverse consequences.
"Especially alarming," writes Dr. Weiss, "is the fourth quarter OCC data demonstrating that record bank losses are spreading to interest-rate derivatives. Until now, bank derivatives losses have been limited almost exclusively to credit defaults swaps (CDS), which represent only 7.8 percent of the notional value U.S. derivatives held by all U.S. banks. In the fourth quarter, although the CDS losses continued at a near-record pace, we also witnessed record losses in the interest-rate sector, which represents 82 percent of the derivatives market: The nation's banks lost $3.4 billion in interest-rate derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in this category."
Separately, total global losses from the debt crisis to date are estimated at close to $4 trillion, with only about one third written down so far.
"In the face of such enormous risks and losses," Dr. Weiss continues, "it's entirely unreasonable to expect the U.S. Government to rescue failing U.S. financial institutions without unacceptable damage to its own credit, credibility and borrowing power."
In his phone conference with the press yesterday, Dr. Weiss discussed the serious implications of his findings. (To listen to the audio recording, go to Here
He then followed up with recommendations for 54,000 investors and consumers that had registered for a Weiss online webinar. (To view the video recording, go to http://weiss.streamlogics.com/April7-09.)
Link
Anyone who leaves any money in bank (except for day to day or business transactions) is a fool. The interest you get is near zero and the risk is sky high. The criminals have already pre-warned people that there may be 'bank holidays' and the like coming. Just how many times do people need to get bent over before they stop trusting the crooks - and YES that includes the banks.
ReplyDeleteCanadians think otherwise, that is how gullible and naive they are.
ReplyDelete"Canadians think otherwise, that is how gullible and naive they are."
ReplyDeleteI didn't see any Canadian bank references. I'm aware our banks have derivative exposure but where is some hard evidence of failure? Instead, you just throw out your random musings.
Try to do some actually research and get back to me.
We have decided not to keep more than our amount we need per month to pay bills in the bank. Everything else is taken out and kept in cash. For us that is not a large amount, but we have accumulated enough to buy food (although we have over a three month storage of food at this point in our pantry), gas, etc. for at least a short amount of time should there be a bank holiday.
ReplyDeleteNot only does this give us a small amount of security (and I realize at this point the amount is still not enough) but also helps curtail reckless spending. It's much harder to part with cash than it is to hand over a piece of plastic.
Keeping some cash on hand is wise even if there is no banking holiday and we come through this economic mess in one piece.
#3 #2 ---THERE IS A typical Canadian who has NO clue as to what he is saying ( AGAIN). HSBC for instance, is a global company with exposure in Canada. If they end, that ends HSBC in CANADA. If GM and CHRYSLER end, that ends the Canadian franchises. A derivative has to close its exposures at some time. When the derivatives unwinds so goes the banks. You never knew the banks had such exposure, did you? Insurance co. , commercial real estate, credit card companies all attached to the US all go down or gets "bailed out". ( To add to more toxic loans) What world are you living in, MAKE BELIEVE? GO DO SOME RESEARCH and Get back to me..
ReplyDeleteWells Fargo posting record profits?
ReplyDeletehmmm. well are they solvent or not?
If Canadians think that commodities are going to save them? Paul Martin in 1994 relinquished ALL CANADIAN Rights to the USA. If the electrical goes out in the US, they just walk over and take it. Canadians will be freezing to death..
ReplyDeleteSame here. I took my check off direct deposit and I'm only depositing what will come out within a day or two in the course of being used to pay bills online. The rest will be handled via cash -- gasoline, groceries, etc.
ReplyDelete"If Canadians think that commodities are going to save them? Paul Martin in 1994 relinquished ALL CANADIAN Rights to the USA. If the electrical goes out in the US, they just walk over and take it. Canadians will be freezing to death.."
ReplyDeleteUh huh...Point me in the direction of that research. Not saying it is true or false but where'd you get that from?
"#3 #2 ---THERE IS A typical Canadian who has NO clue as to what he is saying ( AGAIN)..."
Look here numbnuts, I know full well what is going on. Did YOU know that BMO got $1 billion from the AIG bailout for counterparty risk to deratives? Do you know that CDS only account for 7-8 of nominal deravitive exposure. Interest rates actually acoount for 75-80% which is why governments are trying like hell to keep them low. I know the deratives are on the 5 major Canadian banks books. But where is the evidence of an "emminent" bankruptcy. This is all of balance sheet stuff that only blows up in there face if banks in the States holding the counterparty risk go belly up. If that happens we are all screwed American or Canadian. My question is if you remove for the sake of argument what American banks are suffering from, what Canadian banks are on the verge of bankrupty RIGHT now.
Last anon: Here's the deal since, we don't have a Ralph Nader and NOBODY ever regulates ANY Canadian stock market, you honestly believe the cooked books of these banks? HELLO? No regulations, no complaints, you'll just wake up and your bank will be shut, end of story. I have a few insiders that are in the "know", regardless of what you or the media OR the Government states.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Canadian Commodity Rights" it was a 2 page spread in the Toronto Star years ago. You may want to call the Star and ask them to rerun that article. They may. "Dumbnuts".
For Canadians ( So as not to confuse this issue of derivative exposure):
ReplyDeleteRoyal Bank ($624 billion assets) ; $4.8 trillion total derivatives ; $4.3 trillion OTC derivatives
TD ($432 billion assets) ; $2.4 trillion total derivatives ; $2.1 trillion OTC derivatives
BMO ($387 billion assets) ; $2.7 trillion total derivatives ; $2.0 trillion OTC derivatives
Scotiabank ($429 billion assets) ; $1.3 trillion total derivatives ; $1.2 trillion OTC derivatives
CIBC ($344 billion assets) ; $1.2 trillion total derivatives ; $1.1 trillion OTC derivatives
for economic analyst
ReplyDeleteSo are you saying all these Canadian banks are bankrupt.If thats the case whats holding up these pillars of the community and why is are the Canadian Banks considered the best regulation and most solvent in the world.Somethings screwy here.Help me out please.
You tell me..why is wells fargo able to hide their losses from the public and create a fake balance sheet? Canadian Banks are considered the pillars of the community because your GOVERNMENT TOLD YOU SO. Look at their derivative holdings, its all over the internet but they will not publish this in the GLOBE AND MAIL
ReplyDelete"Last anon: Here's the deal since, we don't have a Ralph Nader and NOBODY ever regulates ANY Canadian stock market, you honestly believe the cooked books of these banks? HELLO? No regulations, no complaints, you'll just wake up and your bank will be shut, end of story. I have a few insiders that are in the "know", regardless of what you or the media OR the Government states.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Canadian Commodity Rights" it was a 2 page spread in the Toronto Star years ago. You may want to call the Star and ask them to rerun that article. They may. "Dumbnuts"."
Ummm...If you want to go there then this entire economy is a giant ponzi-scheme. Anyone with half a brain realizes taht since it is a debt based system that displaces and mismanages resources and commodities. So yes, every bank issues this debt and that debt has far outstripped the supply of real goods in the society as well as real income growth.
Anyway, I think we are arguing about things we actually agree on. Canadian banks are hyped...yes...But there imminent demise because of what they are doing specifically that is different from this whole phoney Keynesian global system is false. On a macro level the global economy is screwed and Canadian banks as well as everything else will be swept away because of tide.
For Canadians ( So as not to confuse this issue of derivative exposure):
ReplyDeleteRoyal Bank ($624 billion assets) ; $4.8 trillion total derivatives ; $4.3 trillion OTC derivatives
TD ($432 billion assets) ; $2.4 trillion total derivatives ; $2.1 trillion OTC derivatives
BMO ($387 billion assets) ; $2.7 trillion total derivatives ; $2.0 trillion OTC derivatives
Scotiabank ($429 billion assets) ; $1.3 trillion total derivatives ; $1.2 trillion OTC derivatives
CIBC ($344 billion assets) ; $1.2 trillion total derivatives ; $1.1 trillion OTC derivatives
I've read that as well. If they are off balance sheet how did your source gain access to them, the bank of the international settlements?
I think this is among the most significant
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