Tuesday, October 13, 2009
The Next Dip? A Great Depression
(snippet)
The US economy has hit a debt iceberg. The resulting gash threatens to flood the economy’s stabilising mechanisms, which the economist Hyman Minsky termed “thwarting institutions”.
Unemployment insurance is not up to the scale of the problem and is expiring for many workers. That promises to further reduce spending and aggravate the foreclosure problem.
States are bound by balanced budget requirements and they are cutting spending and jobs. Consequently, the public sector is joining the private sector in contraction.
The destruction of household wealth means many households have near-zero or even negative net worth. That increases pressure to save and blocks access to borrowing that might jump-start a recovery. Moreover, both the household and business sector face extensive bankruptcies that amplify the downward multiplier shock and also limit future economic activity by destroying credit histories and access to credit.
Lastly, the US continues to bleed through the triple haemorrhage of the trade deficit that drains spending via imports, off-shoring of jobs, and off-shoring of new investment. This haemorrhage was evident in the cash-for-clunkers program in which eight of the top ten vehicles sold had foreign brands. Consequently, even enormous fiscal stimulus will be of diminished effect.
The financial crisis created an adverse feedback loop in financial markets. Unparalleled deleveraging and the multiplier process have created an adverse feedback loop in the real economy. That is a loop which is far harder to reverse, which is why a second Great Depression remains a real possibility.
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Every boom time and every downturn or crash is engineered.
ReplyDeleteIf sheeple American could have figured out that a real Free Market Economy (we have never had one) was the answer, that killing the Fed was the answer, all of this would be water under the bridge already.
Instead, in 1913 we handed the country over to high level criminal trillionaires who have owned and manipulated us ever since.
These folks cloat themselves very well, but they have left their pride and joy right out in the open for all to see - the Fed. Unfortunately, apathetic and deluded Americans actually support the Fed as a whole. That is like walking your children into a rattlesnake den.
We are doomed. The crooks win. All you can do now is take care of yourself the best you can on a personal level.
It is nice to know WHO screwed you though.
WAIT! The actors/announcers on CNN said the recession is over! What the heck is this guy talking about?
ReplyDeleteGo Cowboys!
I think things are going to get way, way worse. Lately, I’ve been researching the level of corruption in the pharmaceutical arena, and the utter control big pharma has over the reporting of science and medecine, as well as its absolute sway over how doctors treat the plethora of “new” diseases that essentially turn entire populations into pill poppers. It’s every bit as bad as the financial markets. Maybe worse.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that absolute power and wealth enable one to control the safeguards that were put into place to protect populations. By co-opting politicians and capturing regulators, the bad man is allowed to come into the room and do whatever he wants, whenever he likes – and the captured media merely pretends that it can’t hear the cries for help or investigate the countless damaged lives. It’s as bad as Russia under the communists, or perhaps worse.
If that seems like an exaggeration, consider how poorly the dollar has done in the last year. The world is telling the US that it is finished supporting its bankrupt lifestyle and crooked economy. As an example, the dollar is down about 31% against the yen in a year. That’s a 31% decrease in real world buying power against the currency of a stagnating country in the grip of its own financial turmoil, going on 20 years now. Your dollar now buys 31% less of everything than if you’d just parked it in yen for the last 12 months.
You don’t read about that much, huh? That’s because it runs counter to the party line, and would cause any even semi-coherent human to calculate what return they’d need to see in the markets just to stay even. And we can’t have the unwashed rubes figuring out that they’d need to see 40% ROI per year just to keep up with currency devaluation and inflation (that’s where things like commodities cost way more today than a year ago, like gold or silver or copper or zinc or anything else of real worth). No, you can’t have the average Joe figuring out that he would have to outperform SAC Capital just to stay even with his wealth erosion, as then nobody would play in the crooked, rigged casino that are the US markets, and the criminal elite couldn’t continue to rob America blind while their regulators assist.
I think we are entering a period of the elimination of the American middle class as we know it. Just as in the 50's, where a gas station attendant could support a family, house and car on his salary, the current two-earner family struggling to remain prosperous (if living in a McMansion and being in hoc to the gills is prosperity) will be an anachronism within 10 years. It will be extinct, just as our gas station attendant's reality is extinct. In place will be a ridiculously indebted nation of working poor and uber rich, where the juice of the nation was sucked dry by those uber rich special interests, and where the working poor have little chance of ever attaining anything remotely like the American Dream.
Think I'm exaggerating? Consider Britain from the 50's to the 70's, and how the middle class there virtually evaporated. The most powerful empire in the world at its time was reduced to an also-ran within a generation or so, the butt of bad dental hygiene jokes and not much else.
We are there. We don't manufacture anything anymore. We don't even design much anymore. That's all been outsourced. What we do is borrow money from China and the Middle East, and then launch wars with that borrowed money right in their back yards - and it's getting more and more expensive to do so every month, and they are undoubtably getting tired of it. We borrow money to buy things we can't afford and we don't need, all the while as the mantra that we are still "The Best Country In The World" is repeated by a press hell bent on whitewashing the huge spots of metastizing rot that now characterize our systems.
I don't see how this ends well.
With the tens of millions of right wing evangelicals working and praying for the end of times, I do not see this ending well either. Governments ( U.S. and Canada) are heavily embedded by right wing evangelicals whom actively seek policies to help facilitate an end of time scenario.
ReplyDeleteNo spiritual Christian is praying for the end times to come as that means tons of death, destruction and massive amounts of suffering. No true spiritual Christians wants any of those things to come upon anyone.
ReplyDeleteThe actions of the masses(conformity, selling out) determine whether the end comes or not. Unfortunately, the levels of conformity have reached the point of no return so America will be destroyed just as every other civilization has been wiped out once a certain level of conformity has been met.
Please don't blame this on Christians, as the true Christians would not wish ill on anyone and want a prosperous and peaceful world like many other folks wish for. This is the result of nothing more than pure evil and Satan himself working thru and amongst all the shills that would bid to do his work. Sad part is, in the end he loses, it's the stuff in between that scares the crap out of many folks
ReplyDeleteWho cares what crooks run the country
ReplyDeletewhen I'm getting better at printing money!
True That.
ReplyDeleteThe bible says 'woe unto them that seek the day of the lord'
meaning that those that ask for the apocolypse are seeking vengeance, which is reserved for the Lord alone.
Yet, in the book of revelations, it says that the souls of them that where slain for a witness unto God stand beneath His throne and constantly implore the Lord 'How long will you wait to avenge our deaths?'
So you see there is this contrarian view about the issue of Christian vengeance even in the bible itself.
But thanks for your attempt at rendering judgement upon mankind.
Oh barf here we go again with the Sun of God crapola.
ReplyDeleteJesus is a myth. Watch the Zeitgeist movie and wake up. I was suckered into that cult myself for 20 years so I can relate, but comeon, the truth has been out for a long time now.
It is SUN/SON worship. The Bible is simply the story of the Zodiac personified. Your first character is John the Baptist on the trek through the Zodiac (Aquarius) and then on and on. That is why Jesus was preceded by 16 other saviors with the same stories exactly.
The early Eqyptians worshipped HORUS who was Jesus's carbon copy of his time. It has all been done before. In 5000 years since then, tech has skyrocketed by this nonsense is still with us. The Elite use this myth to their advantage to manipulate the dumbed down masses.
There will be no Jesus coming in the clouds. He will not be a lamp at your feet. He is not the everlasting light. Wait, yes he is! He is the SUN - DUH! He will rise again! Oh course he will - tomorrow morning.
End 2000 years of ignorance please. Or just better yet, take it to a Mythology/Religion forum.
Instead of watching American Idol or some nonsense why not spend one hour and learn some truth. The kind of truth your owners do not want you to know:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8880541733742777749#
Lets all sit around and sing Kumbaya. I'll start.
ReplyDeleteBecause Zeitgeist is such an amazingly accurate source right???
ReplyDeleteThe Bible does not have a contrarian view in regards to praying for the end of days to come. Those saints still on earth are not to pray for the end of days to come because it is wrong to do so. Christians want love, joy, peace and compassion for all mankind.
Those Christians who have been slain for having the witness of Jesus Christ and are now in heaven can ask the Lord God how long He will wait for judgment. Clearly it is apples to oranges.
As for the zeitgeist guy. If you had 'fallen' into religion for 20 years you would've learned a few things.
Satan is willing to do ANYTHING to deceieve people and lead them away from Jesus Christ who is the SOLE answer to every single problem the world faces today. Read the book "Pagan Christianity" to see how Christianity has slowly been turned into something it was never suppose to be.
I will say that modern Christianity today is highly occultic and totally devoid of the Holy Ghost. This is a huge reason why so many people rail against Christianity....the people in churches today and not Christ-like and usually they are worse than any atheist out there.
True spiritual Christianity is represented in the New Testament book of Acts. If any What we read in the book of Acts is what Christianity is supposed to be and yes, some of us actually follow the Bible and are very much like the saints of the New Testament.
I watched zeitgeist and I did think the movie had a lot of valid information in it. As Satan does, he mixes lots of truth with a little lie. Jesus Christ is the Son of God. Jesus Christ did die for our sins and Jesus Christ did rise on the third day.
I know all of this for a FACT!
I have had and continually have, personal, life-changing encounters with Jesus Christ. No movie, no book, nothing can ever change or challenge my personal experiences with the Son of God.
That is what pure, spiritual Christianity does. It gives you personal, loving and powerful encounters with God, our Maker. Nothing else can offer this. Only spiritual Christianity puts you in the arms of God Himself. Anyone who has experienced this will forever believe the truth and they will love, adore, admire and worship the way, the truth and the life.
Forever!
Oh God get rid of Religion from this board it has NOTHING to do with financial crahes. Digital you are dilusional. You probably had a stroke. You are a believer becuase you hit bottom and had nothing else to believe in. All bottome dwellers are religious
ReplyDeleteAmen-RA! My dog will save me before a fictional Jesus man in the sky ever will. Fairy tales have no place on this board. Let's share thoughts on how to cook up a rat and live in a box instead.
ReplyDelete...that at the name of Jesus every knee should bow (whether you want to or not), in heaven and on earth and under the earth, and every tongue confess that Jesus Christ is LORD, to the glory of God the Father.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThere are a bunch of *loving* superstitions that all the Abrahamic religions share (Christianity, Judaism, Islam and etc)
ReplyDeleteIt can be summarized thus:
"For I so loved the world that I sacrificed Myself to Myself to appease My own anger at My own creation."
-- God
Perhaps, YOU actually worship evil? And have been greatly deceived?! Or maybe, simply it was a pre-birth lobotomy. Hard to tell.
Stop fighting people the fact is the risk of a depression has faded and we are in recovery mode. Look at the good economic news we are getting and proves beyond doubt that we are in a recovery. China's export slump is easing, intel and countless other companies have announced record profits, Consumer confidence is rising, Rio has announed an incease of 12% in production as wrold demand picks up, The recession is officially over, Unemployment in many countries are falling, house prices are going up, Defaults and foreclosure is falling, Bank closure has stopped, etc, etc, etc......you must be realy an idot fool to thinck we will have a depression.
ReplyDeleteAnother fantastic analysis by the RESIDENT RETARD. Here is his description of the recovery: Things are good. Jobs are here. Consumers buy now. China has no slump. My house went up. etc. etc. etc. I have no other info but its true you have to believe me, because I said so..Signed, The Retard
ReplyDeleteThe retard is not sincere, nor does he really believe the crap he is spewing. Just a lonely basher who wants attention very badly.
ReplyDelete12:57 is just a cut and paste job
ReplyDeletefrom the prisonplanet site..
what a loser...
You see how intelligent people are?
ReplyDeleteClearly lacking a known indicator, they quickly resort to using the only unique identifier available, a date/time stamp to address singly posters for conversation and debasement/abuse.
The cunningness of humans is admirable.
But then again birds manage pretty damn well to function and they don't even have cerebrums so perhaps I'm completely wrong here and in fact, given the vast amounts of grey matter humans have we're actually profoundly inefficient at this whole 'intellect' thing.
At any rate it doesn't matter. A worldwide financial calamity of epic proportions is gaurenteed.
Say 'gay-RON-teed' like they do in that Texas BBQ sauce commercial.
Despite the fact that everyone around here is speaking in tongues to me, this board does manage to fly like acrobatic birds dancing to music. Too bad the song is Kenny G and it never wants to change to something new and interesting, but instead remains the same old mediocre ballad sung by a long curly haired sax player. It really mine as well be one note centered upon one thought, and one thought only: banksters and sheeple. But oh God, if I could master that note how I would be a musical genius in the making.
ReplyDelete