As crooked politicians, Federal Reserve hacks, and cheerleading media pundits inform you the recession is over, you probably have a sneaking suspicion they are lying.
The National Bureau of Economic Research is the arbiter of business cycle recessions. They define a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production.”
A depression is characterized by its length, and by abnormal increases in unemployment, a decline in the availability of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation, financial crisis, and bank failures are also common elements of a depression. Let’s assess where the U.S. economy stands at the moment:
Economic Factor Peak to Trough So Far
Real GDP Decrease 3.7% real decline from December 2007 until June 2009 totaling $500 billion
Personal Income Personal income declined by $339 billion from mid-2008 to the 1st Qtr of 2009
Investment Fixed investment has declined by $543 billion, or 24%, since December 2007
Unemployment There are 8.1 million less people employed today than in 2007
Industrial Production Has fallen 12% since 2007
Bankruptcies National bankruptcies have risen from 800,000 in 2007 to 1.4 million in 2009, a 75% increase
Trade Exports and imports declined by 22% and 31%, respectively, between July 2008 and June 2009
Currency The USD has fallen 17% in the last year versus a basket of world currencies
Bank Failures 140 banks failed in 2009, with 700 banks in danger of failing, according to the FDIC
A few economic indicators such as GDP and Personal Income have shown minor positive blips in the most recent quarter due to the unprecedented stimulus applied by the government and Federal Reserve. These effects will be short lived as the stimulus wears off and the economy resumes its downward spiral. At this point in the crisis, real GDP has only fallen 3.7%. By contrast, between 1929 and 1930, real GDP declined by 8.6%. And by the end of 1932, real GDP had collapsed by 26.7%.
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These government types just kill me.
ReplyDeleteNo shit - they do.
History proves over and over and over; no matter how hard you cook the books --------------------
The real recipe will either be followed or your prize winning cookies will BURN !
90% of my friends and family think we are in a recovery. Why? Cause the govt controlled media told them so. The dumbed down idiotic mind controlled TV addicted sheeple will believe anything their TV's tell them.
ReplyDeleteAfter years of research, and my continual daily reading of numerous blogs of REAL economist, not TV actors, there is absolutely positively no doubt we are in a depression and there is no end in sight.
One Example, Read Trends forecaster Gerald Celente, 97% accuracy, the depression has just begun, according to him and numerous other economist, including Ron Paul.
Time is short, better prepare for very hard times to come, and do it NOW!
I call individuals every night to solicit charitable contributions for a local charity. Unemployment is rampant. Many have fallen off the stats. Many are living with relatives or receiving financial support from them. Jobs? What jobs? We are, as the poster above states, just beginning this depression despite the "happy times" being promulgated on TV. Wait til they start laying off the "solid" jobs in education, government etc and raise the SS age to prevent insolvency. Oh vey!
ReplyDeleteI was led here by a poster at http://neithercorp.us ...
ReplyDeleteI must go thank him now. ...and thank you for this blog. Also, I thank all the excellent commentators on here.
We all are seeing the same thing.
I must say that this weekend's nice weather seemed to make things look better for a while. Lots of people eating out, buying "stuff". What was I doing? I was loading ammo and reorganizing my canned goods. Eating out just kills me! All that money I spend that could be used for canned goods. What really gets me is that a can of soup has gone up 10% but eating out? Thats gone up at least 50%. My income? (I have one of those "solid" jobs in education - IT Department.) Its been almost flat for the last 4 years. Nothing makes sense except to buy lots of soup! I hope all of you have been filling your own larders. Mine is bulging!
I don't think this is the time for the elite to take everything down..I really thought it would be over by now. Either they can't pull it off (infighting) or they're delaying it for some reason, we'll never know. Friends in sales say things are picking up (car sales, appliance, etc)Too many "experts" (Celente, Chapman, McIlvany,etc) thought everything would collapse and another year has passed. If things get back to normal, no one will read or listen to these guys ever again.
ReplyDelete