Economic theory has it that prices tend to rise when demand exceeds supply. But when the potential inventory of homes for sale by banks -- which is aside from the properties that homeowners and builders might also be looking to unload -- is equivalent to nine years' worth of demand, as detailed by Real Time Economics in "Number of the Week: 103 Months to Clear Housing Inventory," that suggests those who see signs of a recovery in the residential real estate market should probably be thinking about checking into rehab:
103: The number of months it would take to sell off all the foreclosed homes in banks’ possession, plus all the homes likely to end up there over the next couple years, at the current rate of sales.How much should we worry about a new leg down in the housing market? If the number of foreclosed homes piling up at banks is any indication, there’s ample reason for concern.As of March, banks had an inventory of about 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20% from a year earlier, according to estimates from LPS Applied Analytics. Another 4.8 million mortgage holders were at least 60 days behind on their payments or in the foreclosure process, meaning their homes were well on their way to the inventory pile. That “shadow inventory” was up 30% from a year earlier.Based on the rate at which banks have been selling those foreclosed homes over the past few months, all that inventory, real and shadow, would take 103 months to unload. That’s nearly nine years. Of course, banks could pick up the pace of sales, but the added supply of distressed homes would weigh heavily on prices — and thus boost their losses.
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So monthly job loses are nearly a million workers per month, or about 10 million people this year will lose their jobs.
ReplyDeleteWe have 9 years worth of available homes in the nation's inventory.
Who is going to buy these homes?
Thanks for that Hope and Change Barry.
For the informed, just use this knowledge. Sell while you can, lease. Two or three years from now cash in some PMs and re-enter very frugally.
ReplyDeleteForget the 'home' BS, a house is a house. Think of it as a commodity. All these poor bastards asking too much for their homes are open to fair lease pricing.
OT -
ReplyDeleteWe are at it again - like they would poison their own; of course it is us, as in al-CIA-duh; the vicious Clandestine Empire marches on --
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2010-04-25-schoolgirls-sickness_N.htm
This recovery gets better everyday. These figures do not take into consideration job losses over the next 9 years. How many people will have the $$ to purchase a home or can or will qualify? Ahh, i dunno.
ReplyDeleteThis is by design, figured it out yet?
Now go back to watching your basketball game and SHUT-UP!
I like to go to Zillow for laughs and see how proud some people are of their homes. They still think they can get 2005-2006 sale pricing for their McMansions. Entertaining. Granite countertop!
ReplyDeletei thought we only have like 2 years or less before the world comes to an end.... based on many articles on this webpage... So why worry about something 10 years down the road. i have an idea. its not going to be that bad. There is a middle road thats is not so extreme. While it may be fact it will take a decade to sell all these homes... it will happen, and realestate will rebound.. The world is what u make it. I do think u should be preparing for the worst, but most of what i know, the worst was when the markets collapesed in 2007-2009. Everyone likes to bitch.
ReplyDeleteThere is a middle road thats is not so extreme.
ReplyDeleteIs this the middle road you speak of??
The Tragedy of Detroit: Coming to a City Near You!
For 15 years, from the mid 1970s to 1990, I worked in Detroit, Michigan. I watched it descend into the abyss of crime, debauchery, gun play, drugs, school truancy, car-jacking, gangs and human depravity. I watched entire city blocks burned out. I watched graffiti explode on buildings, cars, trucks, buses and school yards. Trash everywhere! Detroiters walked through it, tossed more into it and ignored it.
...
As a United Van Lines truck driver for my summer job from teaching math and science, I loaded hundreds of American families into my van for a new life in another city or state. Detroit plummeted from 1.8 million citizens to 912,000 today. At the same time, legal and illegal immigrants converged on the city, so much so, that Muslims number over 300,000. Mexicans number 400,000 throughout Michigan, but most work in Detroit.
As the whites moved out, the Muslims moved in. As the crimes became more violent, the whites fled. Finally, unlawful Mexicans moved in at a torrid pace. Detroit suffers so much shoplifting that grocery stores no longer operate in many inner city locations.You could cut the racial tension in the air with a knife! Detroit may be one our best examples of multiculturalism: pure dislike and total separation from America.
...(more)
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ReplyDeleteso goes gm so goes the country
ha ha ha
middle of the road the worst is behing us
delusions built on lies
hovering over clouds of dreams
by by america pie drove my chevy to the levie
but the levie was dry
the good ol boys were drinking whisky and rye
this is america today
hahahaah
you notice no jobs
2007-2009 was just the beginning of the slide into hell my friend. Just hang on for the ride. Don't judge the way things really are by the fake Dow.
ReplyDelete1156.. there is a whole another culture that does exist. im in nor cal and there are blacks, muslims, arabs, europreans, russians, thai, chinese, korean, and white ppl. we all get along. its all what u make of it.. Detroit has been plagued with problems for a while.. and ya, while thats all true, get the
ReplyDeletef out of detroit and ur fine. let the city collapes. its brought up by ford and GM but they made some bad choices now move on, things change. things come and go. entire citys dissapeer and only the lowest stay because humans are to stubborn to hike away if need be. in ability to learn on there.. ignorance make times like these a lot worse than they really are. go for a hike in the woods.. if this a depression, why are the deer or the bunnies depressed. are the trees that arent cut down depressed.. they might be, but thetres is no way of knowing for sure. just be in control of what ur capable of controlling and let the rest go.
jobs will be returning to the market steadily over the next 5 years and spending iwll increase and so will hiring.
ReplyDeleteYes, 1:22 at least has a little bit of common sense unlike all the other fear mongering panzies that post all their drivel here.
ReplyDeleteBUY SILVER COINS or STORE A YEARS WORTH OF CANNED CARROTS or here is a good one HOARD SALT AND SPICEs
LMAO at all this prophetic dooms day crap,HAHA
I come here merely for the entertainment value when I need a good chuckle
2:12 whoops look what just hit me in the head! Shit it all came true and here I was knocking it, as I look out from under my cardboard box in the rain..listening to my stomach grumble daily.
ReplyDelete122 and 212 are both tv addicted sheeple, Jobs are gone and more are going everyday, they ARE NOT COMING BACK EVER! This economy is over by design and it is not coming back either, sell what you can now and prepare, or not, if not you will die with the masses.
ReplyDelete212 Also when Codex Alimentarius gets inplemented, like it is now in the UK, salt will be an excellent barter item, aspirin and all vitamins will be controlled by big pharma and you will pay out the ass for them, 5x what you pay now maybe more, check out codex and see if I am lying.
ReplyDeleteComplete control of food and vitamins, how nice.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure to the troll on here saying the "world is what you make it"... if that were true then this economy wouldn't need to effect people would it? Only a very fearful person needs to insult people as being fearmongerers.
ReplyDeleteif u make ur world that of a farmer and u grow vegies and raise cattle.. the idea of total economic collapes shouldnt fear u. but if ur a takeout junky living in in the top floor of a high rise,and u lose ur jobs and the supply line crumble,life is a bitch aint it.. now if the economy grind on and ur employed and supply lines increase things arent that bad... its all relative. the world is what u make it. dont like the economy stop participating. are the alternatives to difficult for u, the kill ur self.. if its not worth kiling ur self then its worth it.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many vacant apartments there are in the USA?
ReplyDelete