Monday, April 26, 2010

The Imminent Crash Of The Oil Supply

Look at this graph and be afraid.  It does not come from Earth First.  It does not come from the Sierra Club.  It was not drawn by Socialists or Nazis or Osama Bin Laden or anyone from Goldman-Sachs. If you are a Republican Tea-Partier, rest assured it does not come from a progressive Democrat.  And vice versa. It was drawn by the United States Department of Energy, and the United States military's Joint Forces Command concurs with the overall picture.


What does it imply? The supply of the world's most essential energy source is going off a cliff.  Not in the distant future, but in a year and a half.  Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today.  And the difference needs to be made up with "unidentified projects," which one of the world's leading petroleum geologists says is just a "euphemism for rank shortage," and the world's foremost oil industry banker says is "faith based."
This graph was prepared for a DOE meeting in spring, 2009. Take a good look at what it says, assuming it to be correct:
    1`. Conventional oil will be almost all gone in 20 years, and there is nothing known to replace it.
    2.. Production of petroleum from existing conventional sources has been dropping at a rate slightly over 4% per year for at least a year and will continue to do so for the indefinite future. 
    3. The graph implies that we are past the peak of production and that there are750 billion barrels of conventional oil left (the areas under the "conventional" portion of the graph, extrapolated to the right as an exponent ional).  Assuming that the remaining reserves  were 900 billion or more at the halfway point, then we are at least 150 billion barrels, or 5 years, past the midpoint.
    4. Total petroleum production from all presently known sources, conventional and unconventional, will remain "flat" at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then will proceed to drop for the foreseeable future, at first slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.
    5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.  The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these specific findings. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf , at 31.  10 million bpd is equivalent to half the United States' entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world would have to find another Saudi Arabia and get it into full production in five years, an impossibility. See The Oil Drum, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5154

36 comments:

  1. Okay - I need everybody attention. If you are driving around in some gas guzzler SUV and thumbing your nose at the tiny car, you are one dumb ass fool. Oh yeah, your ass is looking good, but your ass will be broke in five years. Now that I got everyone attention, please listen up and get ready. Ray Charles can see that we will be shit out of luck starting this year for the rest of our lives. PLEASE PLEASE ACT NOW. MOST OF AIM, BUT NEVER PULL THE TRIGGER. This shit is real. Pull the trigger now.

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  2. Oh yeah, this is me again, pull the trigger

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  3. pull my finger

    fdr

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  4. This is a precursor to raise the price at the pumps…we have oil off our coasts (which is being leased to China) we have oil in the Dakota’s to rival the Middle East, we have oil in Iowa and Kansas, oil is showing up in once thought dry wells in Ohio and Indiana, we have oil shale in Colorado and Wyoming, we can liquefy coal to oil…if you got the Politicians and Monopolistic Oil Companies out of the way we would be awash with oil!

    Don’t give me the BS we’re running out of it! Keep drinking the Kool-Aid!

    Dan

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  5. Well damn the guy on Coast to Coast (old art bell show) said oil was made by by the earth, smirks!

    and it will always renew the level , smirks again!

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  6. I wish Nikola Tesla could be cloned and/or resurrected!

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  7. 8:32,

    You're absolutely right. Unfortunately, though, most of us do not control the flow oil, so if the Syndicate decides that there will be a prolonged oil shortfall, then that's what will occur, period.

    The only hope for most people with some spare dollars is to switch to an electric hybrid vehicle, such as a Prius, or to convert a used vehicle to electric mode. For most, an all-electric vehicle is the solution, because most Americans, and I might add Canadians, drive less than 40 miles a day.

    It's not difficult to obtain a 40 mile range in a gasoline vehicle converted to all-electric mode. There are plenty of kits available and plenty of repossessions these days.

    As for the Toyota Prius, there's a book you can obtain that will show you how to add an additional battery pack, which you can get on eBay for as low as $1,200, plus a plug and charger unit that, together, will essentially turn the vehicle into all-electric mode with a range exceeding 40 miles. At night time, you simply plug the car into the electricity grid to recharge the batteries. Energy cost per mile? Try 3 cents. The book is called "Build Your Own Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle" by Seth Leitman. You can get a copy from Amazon.com.

    And yeah, it's like that.

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  8. So then why don't they give us the clean energy now instead of yell at "Republican Tea Partiers" which keep in mind just shows the ignorance of the author who wouldn't bother to learn that there are just as many democrats that are in the Tea Party.

    Shady research...

    I'd love to live like a Native American, honestly, but the people running this Green shit movement are fucking evil white men just like the ones they slander that caused Mother Earth to be destroyed.

    When Mother rises up I hope their peaceful intentions and demands are truly sincere... and not just about the other kind of green.

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  9. 11:50 why so glum sugar plum?

    If you think EA is full of shit don't prep...Fine by me.

    I in the meantime have some quasi-religious social conspiracy theories and appreciate the good days before it gets dark.

    True there is oil in South Dakota/Off the coast of Cuba/canadian shale BUT are you going with your shovel and bucket to bring it back?

    What about Mexico/Bahrian/Kuwait/North Sea (British) and most likely Saudi Arabia being out of oil?...Won't it be trading one for another?

    EA gives you the info...I agree with it 80% of the time...I am not super religious but there's a quote that reads:

    "After this I saw four angels standing at the four corners of the earth, holding back the four winds of the earth..."

    I think we're at that point of the collapse...Just hanging on but no real reason why we don't have full on economic collapse which will then cause war, famine and pestilence.

    I mean even if you're not religious just the thought of there being a real oil shortage is enough to cause economic strife which then causes the rest to fall like dominoes.

    So in retrospect...Yay for EA and as for you lay off the regular and try Sanka decaf.

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  10. Holy crap...

    You mean to tell me that Michael Ruppert isn't completely insane?!?!?

    For those who haven't seen it, check out his movie "Collapse." Even if he is dead wrong about everything, it's a very well-made and entertaining movie...

    Well, I guess that depends on your definition of "entertaining."

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  11. The elite families can't give us clean, free energy because that would set up free from our dependence on them.

    JP Morgan stealing/robbing Nicola Tesla's discoveries on energy has kept up in the gas/oil stone ages. (For those who don't know Telsa, he gave you AC/electricity and made Einstein look average in intelligence).

    Instead of demanding freedom from our owners, we putt around in our internal combustion cars, forever slaves to their oil.

    Free energy tech is very real and has been around for decades, we just can't have it.

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  12. The Oligarch bankers that run the United States are not ready for a complete collapse yet. I believe they still have a couple uses for their billy club. Attack on Iran, genocide, more good times for the Empire.

    The Banker media, as long as it is spewing forth tripe about a recovery, is the barometer to watch. The MSM is reality to the sheeple and if the bankers want people to believe everything is ok, they will - not indefinitely though - it can only be taken so far.

    As long as you see drivel like this on USAliesToday, you can know that the banker media wants the fake economy going forward just a while longer; they are not done sucking out their wealth and use for us yet:

    "By almost any measure, the economic recovery is in full swing. More factories are humming again. The stock market is roaring. Even consumers are loosening viselike grips on their wallets."

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  13. When the banker media actually comes out and reveals the truth, by the instruction of the Oligarchs, THEN you know you are days away from SHTF.

    When they are ready, when they have all their ducks in a row just like pre-crash '29, they will then pull the plug and profit from the collapse just as they did from the climb.

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  14. The economy of the USA and the country itself will cease to exist when the Oligarchs decide. In fact, the date has already been selected by them. There are no coincidences or mistakes.

    When the decide to flush us, we will be on the level of a Zimbabwe or worse. They will no middle class. Only super-elite rich and super-poor groveling, starving slaves.

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  15. There will be no comfort, the elite will see to that; no TV, no radio, except government dictates.

    The air will be filled with the stench of dying bodies, your neighbors.

    Even if you have food, water, gold or whatever it will be no picnic at all. Total collapse.

    A lot of people comment here and say bring it on, etc. They are fools. No one in their right mind will want to live under the conditions that are coming.

    I say keep the fake economy and all the bullshit going as long as it possibly can. The Matrix is still better than the real world that is coming.

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  16. When I start to think about what's coming and I start to panic I sing this song over and over:

    Row, row, row your boat,
    Gently down the stream.
    Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
    Life is but a dream.

    It really works. Try it.

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  17. Is the Earth really running out of oil, OR, are those in control refusing to drill for it? Oil fields are discovered yearly, yet off-limits. Refineries could be built, but no one can get past the five year period it takes to build one. They've been whining about time for 20 years now! If they had started then, several could have been functioning by now.

    Gee, imagine how many jobs would be required to build such a thing? Nah, makes sense, therefore, it won't be done...

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  18. Nice explanation of peak oil:
    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil

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  19. Another scare tactic to justify the already overpriced oil. There are proven reserves worldwide, and in the US. No mention of natural gas, which is also plentiful worldwide.

    Just more govt propaganda to scare the sheeple.

    Better check, your next neighbor may be an Al CIAda agent with explosive underwear.

    Scared yet?

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  20. Contrast the graph with a future population graph (an accurate one) you will see there is an abundance of oil in relative terms.

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  21. Economic Analyst,

    I have thought for many months that most of what we are experiencing with the exception of food shortages has been a careful manipulation by our Federal government to gain control of all companies and entities that could be a threat to the nations security in some type of crisis. I did not know necessarily what the crisis may be, but I felt strongly that Greenspan set all of this up under direction and then retired as the plan unfolded. Al Gore and his Climate Change work was designed to fool the public into thinking that we would all be dead in just a few years and now it seems it may have been under the direction of national security to push into conservation and the development of alternative resources much quicker.

    We now have control over all money and the finance. Most auto makers are bending to the will of the Feds. Our homes are under the control of the Feds. Health Care is under their control. Obama just approved drilling in places that made Democrats and Environmentalist choke.

    I think that the Feds knew we would collapse due to the oil shortage and then orchestrated all of what we are witnessing right now to better control or manipulate the crash. Nothing changes for us little people, we would have suffered either way. If I am correct, when we vote out all the Dems in the coming months we will find a pattern of a continued pace to gain control of everything to limit the loss of life and power through this imminent tragedy we face shortly.

    What do you think of my assessment?

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  22. Many say the world will end in 2012, just as the Myan calendar ends. 2012 the movie is NOT what I expect.

    Assuming the graph is true, we will be forced to seriously consider solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal. We have an endless supply of hydrogen. I have personally filled a jar with water and dropped in, a positive and negative 12 volt wire (keeping it simple here folks) and watched the bubbles form. The gas that rises to the surface of the water is pure hydrogen and pure oxygen and yes (been there, done that) if you add a spark just above the water level, you'll find out fast you have an explosive gas. All we have to do is store this gas in a pressurized tank and you have a hydrogen powered car.

    Nanosolar www.nanosolar.com makes a "solar panel" that looks like foil. Very flexible. Nice idea.

    I believe that 2012 will bring us huge opportunities to reconsider how we live our lives. The transition will be painful as the banksters, lairs and thieves in Washington cry foul and try to stop it.

    We can fight back. Drive a little as possible, walk or ride a bike. Buy an electric scooter for you quick run to the market. Gas may soon be $9.00 a gallon. When I see red bell peppers in the market for $4.99 a pound I pass them up and let them rot, when they are $1.50 a pound I buy them. I'll buy a bottle of Pepsi when it's $.99 and I wont buy it when it's $1.49. When people refuse to buy gas (or buy a little as possible) at $9.00 a gallon, the oil companies will find themselves drowning in oil and they will be forced to lower the price.

    I took a 4 stroke engine from a weed whacker and I plan to mount it to my bike. I'll have a high MPG bike for my in town travels. Check out the gas powered bikes link on this web page. They really do work. My only complaint is the Stride Rides are 2 stroke engines and that means mixing oil with the gas. Not good.

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  23. Google Plum Island.

    Also, Massive reserve just found off the coast of Haiti, which conveniently suffered a massive earthquake and takeover by US Military a month ago.

    However, I'm not a big fan of oil.
    We could all be driving cars that burn peanut or hemp oil and not be making a problem for the earth by liberating all that sequestered CO2 that the earth hid away as Oil and Coal.

    The very first internal combustion engine demonstated at the worlds fair in London burned straight up Peanut oil. Ford had originally planned to introduce the Model A as an Ethanol burner but the fledgling Oil Industry (JP Morgan, Rockefellor) wanted it to burn Gasoline.

    Ethanol is so bad, people get drunk and do irreligious things , immoral things because of Ethanol. HEHEhehehEH. IMMORAL THINGS! Oh I crack myself up.

    Baby gets what baby wants.

    Ford was making a nice little electric car in the early 1900's, as where a few other manufacturers. These early electric car could go 20 miles a charge at about 35 mph. Nice little cars for running about midtown manhattan where many of them where found, owned by wealthy society wives.

    Ford invented the Nickel - Iron battery for these cars. Potassium hydroxide for electrolyte, environmentally safe, batteries last for 100 years.

    Yah the economic collapse is just a pretext for government takeover of everything. COming to a bailed out state near you soon.

    Btw, my TV lied to me yesterday when it said Marijuana is illegal under the law.
    I'm sorry but what part of the people voted to legalize pot in California did this person not understand.

    "Sometimes common sense must overide democracy"
    - Nelson Rockefellor

    "This would be much easier if this was a dictatorship" - George WTF "The Texecutioner" Bush Jr


    All lies all the time!

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  24. "This graph (based on data from the UN Long-Range World Population Projections, 1991) gives 5 estimates of the growth of the world population from now until 2150, assuming that TFRs decline from the 1991 value of 3.4 to the values shown.

    A value of 2.06 will produce a stable population of about 11.5 billion.
    A value 5% below that (1.96) will cause the population to drop back to close to its present value (6.1 billion) while
    a value of only 5% above (2.17) would produce a population of over 20 billion and still rising.
    A consensus?

    The several agencies that try to predict future population seem to be moving closer to a consensus that:
    the world population will continue to grow until after the middle of this century
    reaching a peak of some 9 billion (up from today's 6.6 billion) and then
    perhaps declining in the waning years of this century."

    see; http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/P/Populations.html

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  25. i think its wise to prepare.. we dont know all the facts. What i do know is if the fed didnt bail out companys like AIG, big banks, Chrysler, with large loans, it would have destroyed the economy. Potrugul and Greece worries are roiling the mrkts right now. but i thought the US bailed out europe according to this website and all its graphs and pictures.

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  26. The statement 'It would have destroyed the economy" is highly ironic to anyone reading this website that lost their job and their livelihood.

    The economy is some gigantic thing independent of the rest of us apparently.

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  27. http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/16709109?sec=topStories&pos=10&asset=&ccode=

    GS executives getting grilled!! Quite entertaining.

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  28. "GS executives getting grilled!! Quite entertaining"

    Yes, but the real entertainment is the knowledge that this is totally scripted and staged, to give the sheeple the impression that the Government is serious about reform and getting tough with Wall Street.

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  29. The bailouts/printing already did destroy the economy. The tsunami just hasn't hit yet. Those companies should have been left for DEAD if we even want to pretend we live in a free market. New, better companies would have replaced them. Instead, we prop up and reward losers.

    Please try to comprehend that more money has been printed in the US since 2006 then the entire history of the USA up to that point. We are so screwed. Once the banksters open the flood gates of printed money it is over.

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  30. We were supposed to be out of oil 30 years ago. Same old story....

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  31. In 2005 your precious mainstream media decided to blacklist the Hirsch Report that would have provided some warning about the effects of Peak Oil and the need for mitigating strategies. See http://www.energybulletin.net/node/4789
    The DOE paid for the report, which was conducted by Robert Hirsch of SAIC. The rest is yours to investigate, or ignore.

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  32. please google "abiotic oil".

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  33. We have more oil in shale deposits in and around North Dakota and Colorado than has been burned since Col. Drake first struck oil in 1859. There has been a concerted effort to hamper its production - for what reason?

    There has been a concerted effort to ban or slow the production of liquid fuels from coal (first done by the Germans on a large scale during WW2) - for what reason?

    Not one nuke plant has been built in this nation since the late 1970's - for what reason?

    Offshore drilling has been severely curtailed for several decades, yet there are tens of billions of barrels out there, waiting to be sucked out of the ground - for what reason?

    No drilling in ANWR, despite proven reserves of at least 10 billion barrels at over $60/bbl (and more at higher prices) - for what reason?

    None of this even addresses abiotic oil, the existence of which is a proven fact.

    We are being taken to the cleaners, folks. The same asshole SOBs that are set to make a fortune in "carbon credits" are set to make a fortune in the slow and manufactured "decline" of oil.

    Never forget the golden rule: HE WHO HAS THE GOLD, MAKES THE RULES. Those with the gold and the power are making it so that their domination of society is complete and as near to forever as it is possible to engineer.

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  34. Would love to hookup SOLAR to my house and live off the grid, but it costs at least 25 thousand. A wind generator, at least 8. Lower the price of the alternative engery, & I'll run to it.

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  35. Most of you guys are pretty clueless about oil, and in fact a lot of shit, period. Once the price of gasoline gets over 3 dollars a gallon it MUST BE A CONSPIRACY to keep the American from his god given right - driven around in pickups and suburbans and picking their asses at the drive thru! LOL.

    I'm glad I had the last say on this.

    Peak oil? It's already here.

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  36. peak oil is a myth, anytime the oil gangsters need a new house or boat, we are almost out of oil, then walla they get their loot and the price comes down again, just when the public is almost broke. then that cycle just repeats as the greedy get greedy again

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