Monday, June 21, 2010

How Awful Will This Oilcano Be?


(snippet)
Forecasts for how long it will take before the leak is finally plugged continue pluming toward August—maybe even December. In addition to the oil itself, BP has (in this case deliberately) spilled a million gallons of toxic Corexit dispersant, banned in the UK. Biologists’ accounts of the devastation being wreaked on fish, birds, amphibians, turtles, coral reefs, and marshes grow more apocalyptic by the day—especially in view of the fact that the vast majority of animal victims die alone and uncounted. Warnings are now being raised that the natural gas being vented along with the oil will significantly extend the giant dead zones in the Gulf. And guesses as to the ultimate economic toll of this still-unfolding tragedy—on everything from the tourism and fishing industries of at least five coastal states to the pensioners in Britain whose futures are at risk if BP files for bankruptcy or is taken over by a Chinese oil company—surge every time an analyst steps back to consider the situation from another angle.
We all want the least-bad outcome here. But what if events continue on the current trajectory—that is, what if the situation keeps deteriorating? Just how awful could this get?
For weeks various petroleum engineers and geologists working on the sidelines have speculated that the problems with the Deepwater Horizon may go deep—that the steel well casing, and the cement that seals and supports that casing against the surrounding rock, may have been seriously breached far beneath the seabed. If that is true, then escaping oil mixed with sand could be eroding what’s left of the well casing and cement, pushing out through the cracks and destabilizing the ground around the casing. According to Lisa Margonelli in The Atlantic:
There is the possibility that as the ground and the casing shift, the whole thing collapses inward, the giant Blow Out Preventer falls over, the drill pipe shoots out of the remains of the well, or any number of other scenarios,” that could making it virtually impossible ever to cap the well or even to plug it at depth via relief wells.
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Oil Reported Just Offshore Cuba
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15 comments:

  1. It has been two months; there is no solution but for the oil to "run out" could be 30 years. The gulf is trashed for at least 50 years. No future there, property values are nil, who wants to go to a toxic soup environment?? massive unemployment to follow. This will go into Cuba, down the Fla coast up the E coast with no resolve. No one has yet evacuated from what I hear.

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  2. The latest news from the Coast Guard's Thad Allen is that the relief well is ahead of schedule. This will soon be over and we can get it behind us once and for all.

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  3. 11:05 thats quite hilarious! Relief well takes MONTHS to drill and even if it hits the bottom the entire floor could collapse. The many leaks that have been created make this an impossible task. Coast guard know jack shit.

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  4. The ocean floor won't collapse. Oil is found in spongy, sandy soil, not giant caverns. No oil field in history has collapsed.

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  5. 12:43 never in history has anyone tried to contain an oil gusher located 1 mile under the sea. The only way to stop it is to blow it up. Ever seen a blown up well one mile under the sea? Nobody has.

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  6. 11:11am I can't believe youre so stupid as to believe any relief wells will ever work to stop gushing. It could be 30 years at the most for the oil to stop gushing. Experts I've heard on talk shows say relief wells may help the oil get into the tankers, but not stop the gusher. There are cracks in the ocean floor gushing out oil too, These extra wells are only to siphon off some oil. Check out Bill Deagle, AC Griffiths, Matt Simmons, etc. video interviews. This whole thing is utterly hopeless; don't trust gov. or BP liar scum.

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  7. Words straight out of Obama's mouth last year:

    (Courtesy foxnews.com; http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/08/07/obama-tells-economic-critics-way/)

    "We've got some work to do. I don't mind, by the way, being responsible. I expect to be held responsible for these issues because I'm the president," Obama said. "But I don't want the folks that created the mess -- I don't want the folks who created the mess to do a lot of talking. I want them just to get out of the way so we can clean up the mess.

    "I don't mind cleaning up after them, but don't do a lot of talking," Obama said.

    IMHO, it looks like doing a lot of "talking and getting out of the way" is the modus operandi of all parties involved in this mess.

    Sad part is, as this circus carries on, the people in the Gulf are getting cheated out of valuable time to GTF outta Dodge...

    Beware of the Corporate State, as it does not care about the "Small People".

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  8. so you see....many people are like comment #1. they're just very trusting. that's why companies like BP gets away with murder! there isn't going to be a miraculous cure or answer to this, as much as you want to believe in it.

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  9. BrianWilliamDotyIIIJune 21, 2010 at 6:34 PM

    Whether the relief well works
    Or no
    They will declare victory
    Shut off the SKANDI CAM
    And get back to
    RECOVERY SUMMER

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  10. 3:34;

    More like...get back to the Discovery it's a Bummer! Or is that Obummer, er...well you know what I mean.

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  11. 4:10,

    The gushers are spewing both natural and methane gases in addition to oil, benzene and other nasty stuff. Perhaps the flammable point is too high to use a nuke. I'm sure BP would have employed this option if it were viable.

    A fractured ocean floor doesn't sound like something that would hold together in a big blast. Don't know, just saying.

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  12. maybe they already secretly tried the mini nuke solution and that is where the fractures came from?

    This blowout/leak was first reported to government in febuary and did not just start on april 20th.

    Were BP and the government sitting on their hands from feb to april 2oth , before the panicked, desperate rushed quick shutdown attenpt in april to close the well set off the fire and with the deaths and rig sinking creating a clearly out of control situation that no longer could be hidden from public view.

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  13. "The ocean floor won't collapse. Oil is found in spongy, sandy soil, not giant caverns. No oil field in history has collapsed."

    Or ,
    no oil field has collapsed in recorded history in the last few thousand years?

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  14. 6:51,

    Interesting points. However, why then the fractured ocean floor? It doesn't sound like something's holding together, if you know what I mean. It seems to me that they're screwed no matter what they do.

    Perhaps 6:45 is on to something, namely that they have already tried using a small nuke secretly and it lead to the damage we see today.

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  15. FYI. All oil fields sit underneath an impermeable layer of rock called the 'caprock'. The oil and gas forms a reservoir beneath it over thousands of years. This is what they drill through. The Macondo well is not only gushing from the well-head,and fissure around it but also from the riser pipes that drew the oil to the surface. There are also ruptures in the seabed (cracks in the caprock?) up to seven miles away from the sunken rig. Be mindful of the fact that the Midwestern grain belt, which uses the Mississipi for its global export of wheat etc. will be affected, as ships passing up river need to have their hulls cleaned so as to prevent contamination. Trade will slow down. Needless to say this will cause a global increase in the price of grain-based food stuffs. Your dying empire exports most of its wheat etc. to Africa, Mexico and the Phillipines... If the reports are true, crops are already being affected by contaminated rain in Louisiana (oil and Corexit). When I see Americans over here in the UK, it is striking that they seem to have lost the ability to walk like other humans, your nation (and the rest of the west, but mainly the US) has become so dependent on the oil-car that you seem to be physically mutating...Well, the oil has peaked so your children and grandchildren will have to reacquaint themselves with the horse. If you survive your forthcoming civil war that is...Good luck colonial cousins!

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