The median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in the last 50 years. That's an understatement. It is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years.OK, you're saying, but what does this mean? Does it mean we must increase the duration of unemployment benefits to protect this new class of unemployed, or does it mean we need to stop subsidizing joblessness? Does it mean we need to expand federal retraining programs, or does it mean federal retraining programs aren't working? Does it mean we need more stimulus, more state aid, more infrastructure projects, more public works ... or does it mean it's time to stop everything, stand back and let business be business?
You're going to find smart people make a case for all six of the above public policy directions. (I tend to side with the first of each coupling.) It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong.
One of my first reactions to this graph was: Surely this is why we don't have to worry about inflation for a very, very long time. However, here's evidence that despite the historically inverse relationship between inflation and joblessness, "the long-term unemployed put less downward pressure on inflation." Ultimately, this is a graph that should humble policy makers more than it should scare them into confidently arguing they know exactly how to fix it.
The Point is Not about How many are Unemployed. It is about Quality of Life. To get the Economy Fixed: 1. Stop Printing Money 2. Stop the Military-Industrial Complex 3.Restart Manufacturing in USA. 4. Stop all Legal Men and Unnecessary Managers who fill empty jobs. 5.Let one out of the two parents stay at home to be a child raiser. There will be No Shortage in America. 6. Starbucks is Out. 7. Home made Coffee is in. The Economy can be restored in 1 year with Quality of Life.
ReplyDeleteLions and tigers and RIOTS, OH MY!!!
ReplyDeleteThey cannot fix it, because fixing it would require them to SHUT UP and admit they are clueless.
ReplyDeleteThey would rather us suffer than do that.
Justin
III
Hyperinflation has nothing to do with joblessness. While I agree, higher the unemployment is, lower the inflation goes.
ReplyDeleteBut, because US is trying to solve the problems with spending (borrowing) instead of targeting the roots of the problems, it causes higher debt.
Soon, in my views in the not to distant future, the world will realize US will not be capable of paying back it's debt. Nowdays yields are low, can be sustained for a while, but when US has to refinance those Treasurys in the future refinancing yields will be certainly higher resulting 1-2% or more jump on the WHOLE debt. That's hundres of billions yearly increase.
So when the world will realize US treasurys are the last place you want you money to be helded, there will be NO MORE bond buyers at all.
Hyperinflation has occured in history when the central bank was the only buyer. It can turn out very easily again, and is a real solution to the problem, since the Government will be able to fill all the holes.
Hyperinflation has NOTHING to do with unemployment. It will occur because the Government will not get more loan from foreigners, and while EU economies were capable of sudden and reasonable auterity, US will not since problems are far bigger there than in Europe.
As a conclusion, I think we have to worry about inflation, very very! If you look at past hyperinflation scenarios it has hit in 1-2 months, from nowhere, not years, or decades.
10:11, apparently you didn't read the article a few threads back about the AGI Manhattan Project. There is no going back to the mythical halcyon days of the 1950's. Manufacturing jobs won't be coming back to the USA. In fact, in 30 years, there will be no such thing as the USA.
ReplyDeleteAll good points - but in this current environment; you must prioritize and it is
ReplyDeleteblatantly clear that our manufacturing base
is of little or no importance to the Princeton, Harvard and Yale white shoes boys in washington.
They are going to find out to late that while they were busy filling their own coffers; the rest of the world was stealing our manufacturing
technology.
We are now to a point where we cannot get the jobs back because China makes 250 toothpicks for a quarter of what we can and the quality is just as good. True, they make a lot of junk; but just like Japan in the 70's - they are catching up across the board.
The only silver lining may come from rural americana as people with less and less money start shopping closer and closer to home and support local businesses and farms.
Until that reaches big enough proportions; we will of all things -- import beef from Argentina
I think it shows that they have let the Corporations ships all of our good jobs overseas in the outsourcing.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time they did nothing about illegal immigration to allow Corporations to have cheap labor here in USA.
Look at the bigger picture. We are in a downward spiral and these lost jobs are not coming back. So how will the unemployed live? If you stop giving them unemployment checks, they'll go on welfare and medicaid. Helping them gets shifted to the states and that means the states' budgets are even more strained (translation: your state taxes and fees keep going up).
ReplyDeleteSo I like 10:30's comment about "riots, oh my." Folks who favor cutting off the unemployment spigot forget the costs will just be shifted to them. Gee, we might all be rioting together.
Trickle up economics will kick in. Bush tax cuts expire. Obama will announce some job program in November, right before the elections.
ReplyDeleteHopefully there is a sudden and total crash, so we can end this continuous decay of morals, livelihood, and purpose. The loss of those three in the last 40 years was bad enough, but now we are being drained financially. I'm hoping a scenario like the dollar dying takes place and brings all out anarchy.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to give it about a year or two, if we're still rotting away like this and there's no collapse then I'm going to end my life. This world is becoming painfully pointless - it's a joke.
Remember the "Information Age" that was going to drive our new economy? Into the ground that is, you can't eat information. Economic growth and a healthy economy rely on the manufacturing of necessary goods, made from vital natural resources. This country can no longer compete against slave labor nations and their stolen resources. About the only thing left is the military industrial complex that knows no bounds of economics or limited budget.
ReplyDeleteGiving each other haircuts and clerking at Walmart do not fuel a nation. There will be a reset and it will be ugly. Riots maybe, more crime defiantly, soup lines, a given. Global war? Worked last time.
Life in the Balance . . .
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to let you know I hear you. All of this noise is making us all uneasy. But just remember that money is not the only thing that defines the greatness of a nation. China is sucking in a lot of money but their environment is turning into a toilet bowl. They are poisoning their air and water and land. Their government is sitting on them hard. All the talk about oppression in our country is just talk. Just look around. We have real freedom here, even if it is limited by circumstances. Yes, people are losing jobs and times are changing but the human heart does not change. We still hope for the best and somewhere there is someone that will help you find it. Let your purpose be to serve as a source of hope and don't let the despair beat you. Something tells me you are a strong person with a lot of will power and I'd be willing to bet my bottom dollar the world is a better off place because of you.
The company my wife works for laid off its IT support. Now if she has a problem with her computer, she has to call India tech support. They got outsourced. Paypal is the same way, plus almost every company that supposed to be "American".
ReplyDelete11:50 so well put. I guess in this hell of a mess we have to look at what is good , I"m not talking about what is good day in and out, but if we don't take a minute to stop feeling down then we are even doomed, moreso. Things suck and I talk about it every day, my kids must hate it, I am one of the lucky ones who have not lost too much and I help others, however you can't dance the dance alone, those who are doing ok can't be happy with all the suffering. I am almost in tears in what I see. As I said, I help others from time to time and often hold back tears. How can a country that was so happy go down so fast.........
ReplyDeleteThe housing market, now obama, we are in serious trouble, the mental health of people is the next serious issue. Find joy in small things or this mess will eat you alive.
Cheryl in California
Where does the idea come from that china is stealing "our" technology and jobs come from ?
ReplyDeleteChina stole nothing from the american people .
Every thing it gets is paid for in exploited
cheap labor profits.
Mostly by american multinationals
The real owners of the jobs ,technology and industry simply moved to where the american capitalists could operate their manufacturing factories to make a profit from cheap labor as is their right and responsibility to their shareholders .Often workers US pension funds.
Thats capitalism and free trade and the american way.
If americans were happy to profit from that in the good times ,happy to send their armies to seize natural resources on the cheap and to prop up tin pot dictators everywhere, such as the "democracy loving" saudi kings ,Haiti dictators of cheap labor supply etc. why are they whining now?
America sold its industry and jobs to live on creit , They ate ther cake and now they have the debts to pay for living on foreign credit in a ponzi economy backed by militarism .
Deficit financing for wars has its eventual cost in order to pay for it.
Houses are being foreclosed on as mortgage
debts are not being paid for.
Thats usury capitalism.
So far .. america as a whole has not been foreclosed on yet..but all that national and private debt and its interest has to be repaid.
free rides an free lunches have all come to an end.
The great Ponzi collapsed when americans couldnt make its interest payments on sub prime housing loans and freddie and fannie mortgages loans . Thats capitalism and the american way.
Once the foreigners woke up it was all ponzi dud bomns AAA rated by american fraudsters, the world stopped giving credit to americans to live on, this is very unerstandable when dud loans being exported by the banksters in a property bubble, were based on loan and property values denominated in a fast devalueing fiat paper dollar .
Gold and even the chinese paper Yuan are looking stronger that the sick overprinted dollar of a bankrupt america .
The chinese Yuan may even become the worlds next reserve currency.
America doesnt have much usefull real industrial
product to sell in exchange with the rest of the world to pay off its debts
exept micky mouse culture copyright licences.
And a bit of corn grain .
So no wonder jobs and credit are in short supply .Banks are not stupid they do not want to loan their capital into a dud economy where profits cannot be made in a non existant industrial sector, or when even "safe as houses" investments are worthless.
The only internal source of profit for capital left is looting the assets of the middle class.
But ,the rich are doing very well out of that right now ,while the good times of plunder last ...for a while.
AH, life is good with hope & change. Ask yourself, are you better off then 10 years ago? I lost my job in January and still looking for work, but we just got a great purchase offer on our home. Somehow during those terrible Bush years we paid it off so we are looking at early retirement. Will rent a shithole short term, then we can buy a McMansion for pennies on the dollar is 12 - 18 months..
ReplyDeleteUm Um Um, thanks Barack Husein Obama.
I think war is immanent you can see a lot of analogies with WOII era sadly enough.
ReplyDeleteLike my dad used to say sometimes you need to destroy in order to create.
I think that generation Y (spoiled) will have themselves a nasty surprise.
That is a scary chart! Interesting it all seems to happen AFTER the chosen one was elected. hmmmmm!
ReplyDelete"Mostly by American multinationals."
ReplyDeleteNow, you repeat that sentence 10 times
Think about it for 10 minutes
And you will see the humor in all of this.
Oh, they stole it alright; right out from underneath our greedy little noses they stole it.
Multinational ! WTF