We have arrived at critical juncture in the ongoing financial crisis. Have the government actions of the last year successfully spurred the animal spirits of Americans, resulting in a self-sustaining recovery?
The Obama administration and most of the mainstream media would answer yes. GDP has been positive for the last four quarters. Consumer spending has increased in five consecutive months. Corporate profits have been relatively strong. The country has stopped losing jobs. The missing piece has been a housing recovery.
No need to worry. Famous or infamous (depending on your point of view) $15 billion man John Paulson has assured the world that house prices will rise 8% to 10% in 2011. His basis for this forecast is that California prices have rebounded 8% to 10% in the last year, and this recovery will spread to the rest of the nation.
Maybe Paulson has teamed up with his buddies at Goldman Sachs to develop a product that guarantees a housing recovery. I tend to not believe anything that comes out of the mouth of anyone associated with Wall Street, but let’s assess the facts and see if they point to an impressive housing recovery in 2011.
The man who has been right on housing for the last ten years has been Yale Professor Robert Shiller. His analysis of U.S. housing prices from 1890 until present, which he first published in 2005, unequivocally proved that we were in the midst of the greatest housing bubble in history. At the same time, David Lereah, the chief economist (shill) for the National Association of Realtors, was pronouncing it was the best time to buy. He published his masterpiece of market tops, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? at the 2005 housing peak. He called a bottom in January 2007, and the NAR has continued to tell Americans it is the best time to buy for the last five years as prices have dropped 36% nationally.
Dr. Shiller continues to be the voice of reason when it comes to the housing market. He is doubtful that the recent “recovery” will continue:
This article conjectures that the Dow will go to 14,000 shortly, and it's a pretty convincing case. Maybe I should sell my gold and cash out my substantial gains in the precious metal and ride this more than likely bull wave.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110206/dow-14000-in-2011-battered-bulls-feel-vindicated?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Dow 14,000 in 2011? Battered Bulls Feel Vindicated
Cabot concludes with a surprisingly strong (for such a judicious service) endorsement of the venerable "Presidential Election Cycle" theory. It writes: "From the market's low point in the year of the midterm elections (like 2010), to its high the following year (2011), the major averages have averaged a gain of nearly 50%. It's true!"
Based on past performance, it projects: "With a Dow low of 9,687, a rally into 2011 could carry the index well above 13,000 and even to 14,000. It might sound crazy, but history suggests it's not just possible, but likely!"
9:04 it could go to 50,000 but the dollar will go to ZERO. Look at the dollar chart. This is on course for Zimbabwe...The DOW will be worth NOTHING with the dollar at ZERO. Another mindless soul in the masses.
ReplyDelete904 another shill, the top 1 percent are driving it up themselves, when the time comes, they will crash it, the dollar will crash also, get out and stay out of the fixed, casino market!
ReplyDeleteHouses will go up because:
ReplyDeleteLots of people are unemployed
Wages are stagnant and declining
The cost of living is going up
It is going to cost more to to fund your retirement and health care
Energy costs and taxes on energy are going up and it is going to cost to alot more to heat and cool the McMansion
Local governments are cash strapped and they will be raising real estate taxes
More and more baby boomers will soon retire and want to sell
This guy is totally gullible to begin with.
ReplyDeleteThe country has not stopped losing jobs, consumer spending is also decreasing, experienced entrepreneurs are scared to death more than ever before. There was no recovery to begin with, not even the start of one! But this guy just believes a false statistic that headlined on CNN or NBC. What a dummy.
The connection between the DOW and REAL LIFE is NIL...As we all can admit it's a psychological security blanket.
ReplyDelete"Oh the DOW is up so everything is OK."
Nooooo...What's the price of fuel, food, medicical care etc...That's the reality of things.
Those who pump up the DOW maybe right about it going up...But as we all know the dollar is going down at the same time...If you have a million X's of nothing you still have nothing.
Get what you need and want and a few hedge items and sit this one out...Get a high MPG lil car, some guns, gold/silver, some easily cooked food stocks, a good house security system and prep...At worst you're prepped eating home grown salads and fruits...Possibly picked up some EMT classes...Got fit and picked up real life hobbies.
At worst you missed risking your money on a market that makes NO sense and that has broken waaaaay smarter men than you and I.
To the DOW cheerleaders you are right...However to overstay in the market even for 5 minutes can wipe you out...70% of most trades are computer generated...So if you don't dump quick enough you're at ZERO...Not worth the risk.
Better odds in Vegas...Seriously.
sell my gold buwahhahahahaahaahahah
ReplyDeletethat will be the day