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Thursday, August 5, 2010

WIll It Go Down 90%? It's A LONG Worldwide Real Estate Crash

Once and for all, let us nail the lie that the global credit crisis was basically a US sub-prime property bubble that went wrong, and that Europe was merely an innocent bystander hit by shrapnel.
This is the property bubble chart on Page 12 of the IMF’s latest report (Article IV) on France. If you read the whole report – (click “Staff Report” here) – note the horrendous decline in French export share. But that is another story.
house-prices
As you can see, France had the most extreme price rises from 1997 to 2009, followed by Spain and Italy some way below.
The Anglo-Saxons were more moderate. The US bubble was tame by comparison (measured by price: inventory overhang is another matter) and has largely corrected. This the American way, a short sharp purge. The Club Med bubbles have not corrected, by a long shot.

7 comments:

  1. not in canada, nope. we have figured out how to keep real estate prices from falling but ignore the huge drop in sales and increase in listings part in the last few months, it just means a better buying opportunity right now.

    you see all those asians are coming to vancouver because they know we have figured it out and will buy up all the real estate.

    i hope canada's real estate bubble has the biggest pop in the world yep.

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  2. CANADA will be the biggest bubble in the world! Vancouver real estate is down 43% for the month of JULY. Yes, the Chinese love to get a bad deal. Its their favorite pastime. They buy high and sell low..Always. yep. Its different.

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  3. Man...I would LOVE to see some Canadian housing bubble charts. Where are they? We always seem to come unscaved in all this. The CMHC is the largest subprime lender in the world. The government has allowed them to take on $200 billion in loans from less "credit worthy" individuals. We got out ahead of the bubble and didn't let it pop like the rest of the world but we have only delayed the crash. Vancouver is a joke. Crack houses go for $1 million plus.

    EA if you can find a similar chart for Canada that would be the most impressive thing you ever put on here. It's the Lochness monster apparently.

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  4. Well,my fellow BCr`s...being from the BC interior, it seems as though Vancouver is the designated ``tar baby`` for the BC real estate market. As I have stated before, were it not for the HUGE Asian property purchases there, the bubble would not have gone through the roof so quickly. Now when the dust settles, you`ll be left with $1 million crack shacks and a $465 million roof over BC Place which nobody`s ever gonna be able to afford seats to attend anyway. The real estate in the interior is starting to take a bath accordingly, multi-dwelling apartment projects have been sitting unfinished for months, car lots filling up with used Beemers etc. (boo hoo) DUH! what`s wrong with this picture? The only short term salvation is for the banks to let loose of those mountains of cash they are sitting on and for Harper and his ivy league bean counters to get those presses rolling and shower us with more funny money-and bring back outhouses and Model T Fords-the world worked so much better then!

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  5. 6:51-Just tried that crackshackormansion site-hahahahaha!!! that`s hilarioos!! Boy, aint that the truth-sure does look like the Van. burbs! lol lol

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  6. Check out the Vancouver Real Estate Ride HERE..

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  7. YEA,that`s a good one! I haven`t heard much from that old 100+ yr old wooden PNE coaster lately-bet the Chinese have bought up all the land there too! That`s why they call us *Bring Cash!* lol

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