Tuesday, May 29, 2012

What I’ve been waiting for: Confirmation the dollar is heading up!

Back on November 19 in my Money and Markets column, I listed nine reasons why I expected we were in the midst of a multi-year bull market in the dollar. Then on March 17, I repeated that forecast and said the dollar looks quite good relative to Europe and Japan.

This week that seems to be playing out as we’re getting some technical confirmation of another major leg up in the buck.

Today, I want to review the rationales as given in November, show you some current technical analysis on the buck, and share my long-term target for the euro.

My nine original reasons why the U.S. dollar may have bottomed (as they appeared back in November 2011):

  1. Credit crunch forces change — U.S. savings are going up; debt sentiment has changed.
  2. Flight from risk — Euro-zone crisis.
  3. Growth in U.S. — Not as bad as expected; it’s all relative. Much better in U.S. than Europe, U.K., and Japan.
  4. Carry trade history — The Fed hiked rates before the Bank of Japan and before the European Central Bank (ECB); and the ECB should be cutting rates soon. Read more.....

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