Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Harry Dents Forecast: Depression 2010-2011

Stock Market will retrace 50%. Sell your Real Estate NOW! New wave of collapse will come in the fall. Interest rates will go up. No Recovery. Prepare for a depression.




109 comments:

  1. Conflicting courses of action. Either he should be telling people to save $$ or dump it for commodities such as gold and silver. Not both.

    I see it as cash being strong short term as prices drop on everything, then commodities/gold/silver as inflation and the dollar collapse kicks in into next year. This Xmas season prices/sales are going to be in the toilet.

    I believe he is correct about real estate prices crumbling. They are still propped up by the government via the low interest rates. No one can sell their home now; wait until 15-25%+ interest rates due to the printing presses finally doing their damage.

    So if you own a home outright, sell it if practical and rent. The cash or silver/gold you have from it will buy a 2x-6x better house in two years, or whatever you like. In two years a $450k home will be $100k. No joke. It will be an over-correction. No sales except giveaways to those who have cash or assets. Calculate the payment on a $450k house at a 25% mortgage, you'll get the picture.

    25% of savings should be in physical precious metals because the dollar/banks could go down the tubes tomorrow. Another 25% should be in things people need like food, water, etc.

    The $$ has to fail 100% at some point. The trick is to not be in it when it implodes and everyone freaks out and is standing in line at the bank staring at a 'closed for holiday' sign.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Pfffft.

    Everyone is jumping on the depression bandwagon now that even a 2 year old could see how this is going to end.

    I called this shit in 2005.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I called this shit in the 90s.

    ReplyDelete
  4. When we have an obvious criminal government controlled by banks and corps what do we expect? Great times forever?

    ReplyDelete
  5. War is peace? Slavery is freedom? Flouride is candy? lol

    ReplyDelete
  6. I remember saying in around 1993 when the media was posting how families are 95 % in debt, and how I felt that cannot continue, now look at it.

    ReplyDelete
  7. True, it doesn't look good, but only on this site. Go to CNBC and it's a wonderful buying opportunity, and hey, who has more viewers.

    My point is, there's what SHOULD happen, and there's what DOES happen.

    It's not over till its over.
    (at least this keeps web sites in business)

    ReplyDelete
  8. You can talk your way into a depresion!
    Reinvestment, Innovation and Business are the answer "RIB". Chinesee reinvest in AMERICA NOT JUST STRATEGIC ASSESTS,everyone finds stable dollar with stable US debt.Invest in America while it's cheap, Innovation leads us out and allow business to function with out taxes.
    up up we grow, or down you go D.S.

    ReplyDelete
  9. how can US keep paying its mountain of debt off with rising unemployment lines, rising unrest with the once safe US$, falling tax receipts and a govt laden with toxic assets on its balance sheet - France was usurped by England then in turn it by America now China is emerging as the next economic leader

    ReplyDelete
  10. Wow> Looks bad from the American's viewpoint.

    Must say I followed Harry S Dents forecast in the 90's and he was right!! depression. Help. here in Australia everybody is spending loke there is no tomorrow and the sun will just keep on shinning!! Lets hope Harry's wrong this time? Time to buy a farm outback? and grow veg and raise chickens!

    Gavin in sunny Sydney Australia

    ReplyDelete
  11. http://phishna2009predictions.blogspot.com/

    I totally agree! I wrote 20 predictions:

    #1 Deflation Takes Hold, the fear of hyperinflation dissipates as credit implodes, metal prices plummet, bank stocks plummet, over 10 large banks are taken over by the Feds, Goldman Sachs share price declines to less than $10 a share and a second bailout of the banks is refused, share prices are destroyed in 2010, interest rates go negative, people are paid to borrow

    #2 US Government is Forced to Cut Spending, the Treasury defaults on T-Bonds, the new health care system is a total disaster and rogue doctor offices spring up everywhere, medical care goes underground, people trade marijuana for medicine, Nancy Pelosi gets a facelift and buys new shoes, Michelle Obama goes on a shopping vacation in China

    #3 States Forced to Cut Spending, California leads the way and raises taxes and cuts welfare spending which causes riots, California and Arizona forcibly repatriate illegals in order to save money, public schools become food distribution centers, school buses are used as public transportation year round in rural counties

    #4 Credit Card Defaults Skyrocket, Fannie and Freddie finish their bankruptcy - shares are NOT traded, Sallie Mae stock plummets to less than $1 a share, the bank stock index (BKX) declines to less than $10,

    #5 Public Recognizes that we are in another Great Depression, the 2nd Great Depression forces economists and other intellectuals to call for ending the Federal Reserve, John Maynard Keynes is declared to be the devil

    #6 Pot Growing Skyrockets, pot becomes a parallel currency to dollars in hard hit rural communities, pot saves the day, former rightwing antidrug Christians start smoking and growing pot, some preachers claim that the Bible says Jesus smoked pot, pot is smoked in the open in major cities, hippie chicks grace the covers of women's magazines, hippie pagan cults worship the cannabis goddess, rainbow gatherings in forests become year round, people garden on public lands

    #7 Pension Funds Implode, over 10 state pension funds go into default, 401k's decline another 80%, car sales plummet, small economy and electric cars become popular, old people eat dog food, young people eat dogs

    #8 Mortgage Defaults Double, recreational real estate declines 90%, struggling mortgage payers throw in the towel when nationwide real estate declines another 40% in 2010, in some areas real estate is off 98% and still no buyers, some homes in Detroit decline to $1

    #9 Start of the End of the "financial times" the era of manipulated debt based currencies begins to end, magazines like The Economist are despised, everyone starts to see the scam that fiat currencies are a fraud of Jew banksters, the public demands a hard gold back currency, Fed is audited and nationalized, Ron Paul is the new hero and makes the covers of major financial magazines

    #10 Obama the Fraud is despised, calls of impeachment or assassination are common on talk radio, the more radical the talk show host the more popular the ratings, right wing Christians openly protest Obama is the Antichrist



    full text and graphics click on link:
    http://phishna2009predictions.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  12. My fear about the future began in 2006 and has been escalating ever since.

    In January 2006 - I was talking to a seasoned investor friend of mine in California and asked him "where he thought Real Estate was headed and what would he do?"

    He said California was getting killed and it was getting very bad. He told me what was happening in California was headed east and would hit Florida. His advice was to SELL ALL MY REAL ESTATE ASAP. I remember getting off that phone call as white as a ghost as I was sitting on 9 residential properties with a $30k combined monthly debt service. My absolute terror drove to me dump everything and I had everything sold by May of 2006. At the time - I became very negative about the future of real estate and started telling everyone I knew that a major crash is coming. I remember my investor friends of mine thought I was crazy. They would say things like "yes but this is FLORIDA". "People love florida. We may see some slowing down but real estate will always be hot here." Looking back on that - these people drank the kool aid. They were in a delusional fog about what was coming. They did not take action. They did NOT PREPARE. I remember one guy had 27 investment properties that he sucked all the equity out of - leveraged to the gills - he was now trying to sell or rent. Needless to say these guys are all gone now. They got creamed. All the homes lost to foreclosure. All left real estate. Many moved out of Florida because they lost everything.

    For the last several months I've had this gnawing voice in the back of my mind telling me to get out and move into the country and get a farm. The thoughts were strange to me because I live in a nice house and never dreamed of leaving it. But the thoughts would not go away. Then a few months ago I was talking to a financial planner friend who was telling me many affluent clients are getting out of the market and buying farm land in the country because they think the US is headed for very bad times. I remember at the time feeling some validation that the thoughts I was having were not crazy. Other people were thinking what I was thinking.

    So after this - I put my real estate hunter hat back on and started looking for land in the country. It was kind of just for shits and giggles. I just wanted to see what was out there.

    The final "validation" straw was last month. I was having a donut and coffee after Sunday Mass with an old man who was a young boy during the Great Depression. We started talking about the economy and he said believed the USA was headed into some very "dark days" ahead.

    When I asked him WHERE HE THOUGHT IT WAS HEADED AND WHAT HE WOULD DO - his answer sent chills up my spine . The old man said this:

    If I were young with a big family like you - I would move out to the country and buy a farm with lots of land where you can plant crops, have chickens and maybe cattle. This way you will have fruit, vegetables and meat. If you get 1 dairy cow - you will have more than enough milk. You can also make butter, cheese etc. A farm will provide you everything you will need. He told me when he was a young boy they lived on a farm and life was quite good for them. But he remembered people in the city had an awful time. Just terrible.

    After that talk - I looked at my wife and said we are moving to the country. Somehow I just know it will prove to be the best decision I ever made.

    Last week we found an existing 40 acre farm that is in the middle of nowhere - very secure and just absolutely perfect.

    And the EASE and the SPEED in which I found this place is scary. It is almost as if the place found me.

    here ends the story. Over the years - I have received some great advice from friends that allowed me to save my ass.

    I just wanted to pass this story along. Maybe it can help someone out there make the right move now and start to prepare.

    ReplyDelete
  13. USA debt is denominated in US Dollars, so they can print a few ship loads and send it to their creditors. That would crash confidence worldwide though--- but Bernanke has no choice but to print. Australian houses are the most unaffordable in the world compared to disposable income. Immigration underpins our prices at the moment, but soon there will be a backlash towards immigration--- you better be out of the market when that happens. Household debt to GDP in Australia is about 170%. Yikes get debt free soon and wait till you see blood in the streets then make offers CASH ONLY. See steve keens site too

    ReplyDelete
  14. Demographics determine destiny...What is over looked but easily checked out is the rapidly shifting bad demographic new in USA. Go to the pewHispanic center for details and the National literacy assesment pages. In short: 7% white, 14% Asian, 24% black, 44% Hispanic in the USA are "below basic" in literacy, or illiterate. The problem is the Hispanic population is growing rapidly and at the same time is becomming more illiterate. Don't take my word for it...look it up and then try and figure the solution...I cann't, only that it is a train comming at us along with many others...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous,

    Whenever I see a posting complaining about illiteracy that is itself littered with spelling errors, I'm not sure what to think. Do the errors in spelling and grammar mean that the writes is an uneducated fool and therefore can be ignored? Probably. But, more subtly, does it also prove the very point being made -- that if even those who think themselves in a position to condemn the literacy of others are themselves barely literate (having the writing ability of second graders), does that mean things are *really* bad?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Why is it that in every blog someone has to go off on the 'you can't spell' tangent.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Economy is Booming , just relax and keep watching my friends! . And It is not good to engineer the depression again. Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  18. What drives a great depression is not enough cash Print money but give it to everyone evenly. And debt vouchers to pay down personal debt.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Another "Great Depression" is not possible. Food is plentiful, infrastructure is in place. jobs may be lost but in the end it may just mean getting paid less and not buying that new 68 inch plasma.

    Buying gold is never a bad idea though.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The stock market will starts its nose-dive June 10-17, 2010. By march 2011, the stock market will be in the 3500 range. All real estate prices will go accordingly--down the toilet! If you want the truth---here it is; and by Nov. 03 2010, the government will be wondering; how it can afford to have the election. So, this is the time element that we are in----do not believe that it is later --this is the truth---trust me!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  21. This has to happen----for one and only one reason---to get rid of the liberal government, and so the U.S. will get back to its purpose, being free again---and, I mean free--free of all political reasonings that ruined our country, there will be no more reasons other than let's make money without the government interacting with some stupid law or regulation that deters growth, or reason.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Finally--the political system in america will be broken for generations to come---America will be the greatest nation on earth within a very short time----but now for the right reasons; politics will now be in the citizens corner, and proud to be an American will be again; from the people, and not some politician or media, WE ARE NOW IN CONTROL--and will never let this get away again. THis will leave a long-lasting effect for generations to come.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Its Gavin again from Sunny Australia. Last Blog 1st November 2009.

    I was a disciple of Harry's of his "Roaring 2000'" I hope he is wrong but alas the Global Stimulus spending has not ceased!!When this ends globally the stimulated industries will return to their former state. Oh Dear!!

    Everyone in Sunny Australia has been sold the Lucky Country message. House prices the most expensive per income in the World and will just keep on rising and the Financial Crisis was a problem the rest of the World has got , not here we are all happy and en route for economic Zion where everyone gets more Grog more Sun and more fun!!

    Depression whats that? Will we have to drive our current car for longer?

    I had the courage to buy "The Raoring 2000's" but cant bring myself around to buy "The great depression ahead".

    What your advice to us Ozzies down under.

    Help!!!

    Gavin in Sunny Sydney

    ReplyDelete
  24. I think there has only ever been one way to get yourself out of any mess, inovate and work your ass off.Time to depend on ones own gut feelings and stop thinking "leaders" are smarter than the rest of mankind. They are human and as a rule think only in the short term. Dont dis Obama, he may be the right person at the right time. As for Gavin in sunny Sydney, I just got back from five weeks in your lovely city and here is my advice. Be prepared to pay more for property until the NSW government pull the finger out and zone land for development. If you do want to buy property, do so in Fairfield,rents are expected to double there over the next five years.Rent your property and go walkabout for five years. Even in a depression, how could you be depressed in a place as interesting and fun as OZ,it is a lucky country!

    ReplyDelete
  25. There is always going to be 100% of wealth on this planet no matter the quantity, shape or form it comes in.
    The West is no longer the sole rich kid on the block. India and Asia are growing richer and stronger. The West has an aging population that will slow and stall its growth for decades to come.
    Living standards in the Western World have to fall. The economy will bite us hard in the ass (depression) if we continue believing that the economy will somehow miraculously fix itself up. Reality is that the good times of growth are over for now. We must ease up on our spending. However, as if people will ease up on their spending?! For example, as if the Greek people will happily accept wage freezes and higher prices to remain in the Euro Zone? Yeah right! What politician out there will have the guts to implement what is necessary to prevent an economic collapse? Unfortunately I think we are headed for a bad ending because instead of preparing for tough times we continue to spend and live beyond our means. Remember what happens to the squirrel that doesn't store its nuts during summer? It starves when the weather gets cold.

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  26. HOGWASH to all of ya! Damn the doom and gloom, i'm putting my money in casinos

    ReplyDelete
  27. Short the market, naked shorts on Goldman Sachs, btw stop yaking and start shorting. If u are wrong, do a smart Maddorf thing, disappear, if u win, rub shoulders with Soros and Roubini.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I'm really concerned about our future and would like to learn more about surviving off the fat of the land per say . Maybe we should start sharing info on things like growing our own food, making our own energy, what types of foods store the longest etc. I would really hate to eat cat food .. lol - you can call me louster...

    ReplyDelete
  29. First of all: DON'T be a victim. Go to your local library and ask them to order the book "How to Prosper in the 21st Century" By Howard Ruff.
    Second, if you own your home with no mortgage, don't sell it, especially if you have land. Rule of thumb- 2 acres of land per family member if you want to grow enough food to put by for later.

    ReplyDelete
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  31. With the economy at 12,000+ I suppose that "Anonymous" is now fully exposed as the Anti-Semitic, race-baiting Hitlerian Republican that we all assumed he was in the first place. Hope he gets hit by a bus on his way to the Klan rally...

    ReplyDelete
  32. Last depression 90% were down on the farm and fed themselves. Now 90% are in the cities. Iran wants to kill the great Satan. And the US borders are a joke. British agents have already caught a terrorist with a backpack nuke. EMP pulse would knock out all electronics. No cars, trucks, farm equipment will work. No electricity to pump gas, and no functional trucks to "Just in time" logistically supply the local grocery store. Store food, water, ammo, seeds, and do it yourself information as well as barter items. Socialists want blood in the streets to gain control. Mass starvation is a real possibility. We are about to see hell on earth.

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