Sunday, December 27, 2009

The New Unemployment: No More Permanent Employment

One of the ways we kid ourselves is calling our unemployment rate 10 percent. In government-speak that's the "U-3" number, which counts just current job seekers. What it doesn't count are "discouraged" workers, who have given up looking, and the "involuntarily part-time" or underemployed workers, who also can't find full-time work.
That's the "U-6" number, a more recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics metric. Today it's more than 17 percent, which means real unemployment is approaching one in five Americans. And, yes, that's a (post-Depression) record.
Growing evidence suggests that something far more fundamental than just another economic cycle may be going on. The modern office/factory-model job as we know it actually could be headed for extinction. Goodbye, permanent employment. Hello, contingent work, contractual employment and "composite" careers.
Many of us know people like my relative (by marriage) who's a part-time associate pastor who also delivers newspapers, does home remodeling and sells Melaleuca. It's a living -- in fact, he's been doing it for years by choice. We're also seeing more and more six-month and one-year contract jobs with employers who don't want to commit to workers beyond that. This may well be the shape of things to come.
William Bridges, the visionary executive development consultant and author who named this phenomenon "dejobbing," foresaw this years ago: "What is disappearing is not just a certain number of jobs -- or jobs in certain industries or jobs in some part of the country or even jobs in America as a whole. What is disappearing is the very thing itself, the job."
Try this experiment: If you've worked long enough to have had multiple jobs, tally up that total number. Then subtract however many of those positions no longer exist. Unless you're in health care, education or some other recession-resistant field, the number you have left may surprise you by its tininess.
In my own case, I've had (not counting freelance writing stints) six full-time jobs. Of those, only two still exist. And of the four that went bye-bye, three of those employers no longer exist (two newspapers and a public relations firm).
LINK HERE

29 comments:

  1. In 30 years as a business owner a lot of resumes have crossed my desk. Even more emails and phone calls asking if I have any part time work available.

    Something changed about six months ago. I don't get inquiries. I get people begging. Telling me their life story. They will take anything. Any work at any pay scale.

    Desperate people on their last leg. It is difficult to tell so many the truth. That truth is I call barely pay the permanent employees that have been here for years.

    Many of these people could have made six figures three years ago but now they will most likely be in a soup line having to listen to a gospel hymn in order to get a meal.

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  2. 1:11 - If your a 30 year employer; you know it's not really difficult telling people the truth A)
    B) If you can barely pay the long term employees
    now, you had better start to scale back and C) ANYBODY who wants to WORK in this country can find a JOB ! Don't bullshit me or anybody else ! Oh you may not get the payscale; or that cush little job "title" but the WORK is there. You wouldn't believe the people I interview EVERY day
    that turn down a job because they have got to physically do LABOR - it's like it's beneath the people in this country to put on a friggin' pair of gloves & carry a bale of straw 40 feet. We better wake the hell up 'cause there's another 6 billion people who wood just love to have that job for 15 bucks an hour.

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  3. Anonymous 1:11 - ditto.

    I am worried that before long people in lines to submit thier resumes or employement applications are going to turn violent.

    Many people who have a job are working 30 hours or less per week. They to will be begging to keep thier job because they know they will not be able to get another job.

    My Business will likely be gone sometime in 2010 and I suspect many others are in the same boat. I will also say many Business owners are aware of why the FDIC raised the insured amount from 100K to 250K. It takes very few of them to start pulling their money out to go past the 10% reserve of the bank. A word to the wise do not wait till the lines start forming to get your money out (if you have any).

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  4. > [business owners will] start pulling their money out

    Just an FYI, the FDIC guarantees 100% on non-interest bearing business accounts (see Transaction Account Guarantee / TAG) -- so businesses in these accounts and individuals (with under $250K) are covered by the feds, regardless of the bank's solvency [at least through June 2010, when the TAG is set to expire if it does not get extended.)

    Regardless, your point about businesses closing ... no question that is happening, and increasing in magnitude.

    As far as people turning violent? Not as long as the next season of American Idiot is captivating us.

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  5. hey, they have created jobs, just not here. Go to fluor or ch2m hill web site's plenty of work in afganistan!

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  6. Yes, anyone can find a job. I am sure someone with a medical degree can get a job cleaning porta potties at a carnival.

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  7. 1:42 - Man you are so real. Did you say 15 an hour. Try $8 - $10 an hour. We are so stuck on stupid. Tell the truth and it will keep you free. Stop these lies.

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  8. Stuck on stupid is $30.00 Union zobot jobs that cost the Co. another 15/hr. in "various entitlement expenses" that force us into non-competes.
    No Sir - Don't bullshit me - I'm out there - every fucking day & the WORK is there. You consider Mickey D's at 7.50 "work" I call it stupid robotics.
    The forest products industry is begging for laborers; in the N.E. ( W.Va. Pa. N.Y.) the Nat Gas field is begging for laborers - the powdered metal plants; I travel 20 states & the TRUTH is - the work is there - as I stated before however -
    people in this country are much more interested in a free ride than a REAL JOB - with REAL SWEAT
    producing REAL GOODS for REAL WAGES - go panhandle your sob stories to someone else - the WORK is there - end of story.

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  9. 2:09 FDIC is a scam and a joke.

    Bank closes. You must file proof of account/history. Just how are you going to do that when the bank is closed and not answering the phone and their website is shut down?

    OK, let's say you can. You somehow file the necessary dozen forms and fill it all out and get it to the right bureacratic dept.

    It take 4-8 months to get your money. That is of course if the FDIC has it.

    Meanwhile, since we are talking about massive bank closures here the Fed has been printing more in a day than it usually does in a year.

    Hyperinflation and the devaluation of the dollar into dusk.

    Your check from the FDIC six months down the road is worth diddling.

    You have been conned. Taken. Scammed. You believed the bankster's FDIC was there to protect you. You lose.

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  10. 4:27 People have not checked the FDIC insurance and they need to read it. There is nothing that says they have to get your money back to you in a timely manner. It might takes months or even years. People really need to read what what their FDIC insurance really is. Mainly, it is to insure that bank runs do not happen and bring down the banks.

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  11. Ding. Ding. We have a winner. FDIC is to protect the banks not you. You get bent over.

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  12. There will come a time where your fiat funds in the bank will be wiped out in one fell swoop. It may be tomorrow or ten years from now.

    The riskiest place you can have funds is a bank.

    I love the naysayer comments about gold and silver. They are so clueless as to how low the banksters will go to rob them blind. Your only chance of not being steamrolled outside of having essentials of course.

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  13. 4:22 I hate to admit it but i was one of those union zobots. I worked 27 years at the dearborn
    gm plant and retired 8 years ago with a full bennies package at the time I was making 27.35 an hour and often wondered how the company could make any money we had 3 people checking the job of one etc. etc. Now 8 years later I come to find out we were not making any money just kicking the can down the road. I feel now as though we are doing this thruout our mfg. base
    our unions force outrageous wages and we cannot compete and now our government is taking over our plants - it is unnerving to say the least

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  14. In war the land mine is designed not to kill but injur so that other people have to help the wounded and this affects more than 1 person.

    The same happens in economic war the unemployed affects other people. Because they do not pay taxes, socail security, medicare, etc... this means local, state, and federal government has less money. Also the unemployed need help from the employed people and thus affects the economy.

    So unemployment is like a land mine and remember land mines may effect people years later.

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  15. I wonder who is real here and who is not, makes me sick. First off, here in California there are no jobs, my daughters boyfriend had a shitty job as a supervisor at mc donalds, he is young, they closed down that location. He applied all over the place and no one calls him. Also my 19 yr has put in dozens and dozens of applications and NOTHING, there are 190 hired and 2000 applicants for low paying jobs. There are none, also I have many tenants and they are jumping from job to job being laid off. It's nuts. I do think americans are lazy, I am an american, but I do know there are no jobs here...
    The tides are turning slowly, we are falling into a shit hole daily, by the time we know it we will be a full blown government owned society thanks to obama. It's getting ugly and there is nowhere to run.
    Cheri In California

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  16. no cheri, thanks to all presidents, especially bush who left this mess that is not able to be cleaned up.

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  17. I've said it's OK to
    - loot from the rich who steal from the poor
    - photocopy money like banksters who rob from us

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  18. I've been through several bank failures. FDIC paid off in full the next business day. No questions asked. That's the good news. The bad news is it is true they are covering 100% on some non interest bearing accounts - not all. You have to check with your bank to see if they are participating in the program. Not all our - and some that were are now opting out.

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  19. 8:54 The question is IF the bank failures increase then the FDIC may not have the money to cover the accounts. The FDIC is already out of funds and had to get 8 billion (and perhaps 80 billion behind the scenes) and so can they really cover 2000+ banks that Bob Chapman has said may fail in the next year or so. The banks that have been failing have been allowed to operate longer then they would have in the past. If enought people lose confidence in the dollar and thus the banks then a run on the banks could be so large the FDIC will simply be overwhelmed and probably would see all of this coming and simply have a Bank Holiday and dollar devaluation that many are suspecting is coming.

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  20. 7:19, wake up. Obama is spending money as if it will never make a difference. He has hardly any experience in Government as it is. He needs to go. Things where bad enough, but Obama is out of control. Welcome to socialism,
    Jobs will get worse. Crime will get worse and obama will snake his way into having his way. Buy off or threaten those to interfere with his agenda. Cheri

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  21. The dirty little secret.........

    I am on something called "work share". This is where I work 2-4 days at my company and the days in which I do not work I am paid unemployment.

    I wonder how MANY people are on work share of which are NOT counted on unemployment.

    Why do I ask? Well, in the late 1970s- early 80s we had very high unemployment and states were not running out of Unemployment money.

    This time around it is a different story. I am beginning to think there is a disconnect between unemployed vs. people collecting unemployment either "fully" or by work share.

    Basically I would like to find the “number” of total people collecting unemployment checks regardless of they being “fully” out of work or “partially” out of work.

    If someone has an answer to this I would appreciate it.

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  22. This douche who keeps ritualistically preaching about jobs is virtually insane, or in the very least brainwashed.

    Jobs are becoming passe? I say great! We have all been overl-enslaved in the first place and all of our taxes, profits, and energies have been going towards consumption, destruction, and enslavement.

    Perhaps it's time we all closed shop, went home, and went about our lives as we deem fit while the whole thing implodes, gladly.

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  23. 4:31 Part of what you are saying is true. There are alot of obese Americans, but, there are also alot of Americans that are unemployed that would like to work. I went to a job interview a few months ago and the manager had a stack of job applications that must have been 400-600 applications. I assume that most of them actually wanted a job.

    However, if you consider that Ross Perot was right and we pay between 35% to 40% of our income on various taxes then maybe people have good reason not to want to work. The founding fathers of the USA would have went to war over tax rates that high. The real problem with Americans is not that they do not want to work but that they do not want to fight for their rights and their country.

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  24. 4:31 is blinded by ignorance and resentment. Yes, there is obesity in America. That doesn't automatically mean that the employment rate is very good (still declining!). Open your eyes, dear boy.

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  25. 1:31 Sorry for your confusion; but I'm neither. I am self made and I got here the hard way.I don't need anything from anybody and have want of nothing - I bust these peoples asses because like you; they just don't really want to hear the COLD HARD TRUTHS. Damnit people ! It is Not possible to have a viable and sustainable country
    when over 1/4 of the populace can barely even wipe their own asses. Wake up ! Because the body isn't the first thing that's so - so easy to "just let go" . Try the mind; it needs a workout just like the body - the human animal was
    designed to work ! Just look at what happens when it is - study after study show that an active mind that is daily submitted to challenges
    also is one free from debilatating dementia in all it's ugly forms. same with the body; Hell yes; it's hard somedays to roll out of bed at 5:15 and go to the gym or go for a run; or go to work shoveling stone - but look what happens after 2 years of doing that --- yeah buddy; it looks good!! Now then; how is wealth made? If any of you geniuses like 1:31 can come up with an alternative to creating wealth by making something --- please let me know; but it's the ONLY WAY . Screw banking, lawyers, cops, insurance, gov't, state leg. this commision & that; blah blah blah
    and every other friggin' service sector bullshit you ever laid your fat ass on - none of it makes long term wealth -. I don't care whether it's Forbes, Celente, Kiplinger, Schiff - they will ALL say that very fact.
    How the hell can you turn a country around when 1/4 of it's citizens are retired or too old to work - 1/4 of them are in schooling and /or too young to enter the workforce 1/4 of them are mind numbed twinkie fanatics whom would rather ride their gov't sccoter to the mailbox for that free ride from Uncle sugar than get the hell out and get a real job --- and that leaves us; - the 1/4 that is pullin' the cart -- for me; it doesn't matter; but Sister-- ALOT of that last 1/4 are gettin'n REALLY, REALLY TIRED of the other 3/4 makin' these lame assed excuses as too why oh why can't I get that 100K limp dick, corner office job kissing service sector ass.
    Use it - or Lose it - An honest man making 10 bucks an hour on his hands and knees is much higher than the genuises at hand whom are desperatly just trying to walk upright on titanium hips, prilosec and cortisone injections.

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  26. Thanks for the really long winded rant.

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  27. Your Welcome 'cause it's the truth.

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