Get Ready for Civil Unrest Around The WORLD-Years of Unemployment.

Morning Edition, February 18, 2009 · Around the world, unemployment is rising and incomes are falling, and it isn't clear how long the recession will last or how deep it will get. The global economic situation is so serious that the head of U.S. intelligence agencies now says it has surpassed terrorism as the top threat to national security.

National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair's dramatic report last week — that the economic crisis is now the United States' top "near-term security concern" — caught some members of Congress by surprise. But it makes sense.

The global economic downturn could easily change the world. Previously stable countries could become unstable. The geopolitical lineup could shift sharply, some countries becoming more powerful while others get weaker. Allies could turn into adversaries.

And no one knows for sure how things will turn out.

Threats Of A Long Recession

"This is one of these moments where our assumptions are being challenged," says David Gordon, a former intelligence officer who now leads research at the Eurasia Group. Until last month, he was the director of policy planning at the State Department.

"I think there is a lot of uncertainty right now where things are going, and that makes it hard to plan," Gordon says. "But it also means that you have to broaden the way you think about things, include different kinds of scenarios."
One possibility is that unemployment could get so bad in some countries that there will be civil unrest. Blair cited that scenario in his threat assessment last week, saying, "Economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they are prolonged for a one- or two-year period."

The key factor there is the duration. Gordon agrees that a long recession would be hard for countries to manage.
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