CHICAGO -(Dow Jones)- A sharp drop in global trade is likely to result in falling demand for air freighters, although large plane makers Boeing Co. (BA) and Airbus haven't changed their production outlooks.
Analyst Joseph Nadol at JP Morgan late Wednesday cut his 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates for Boeing, noting that "the credit-fueled bubble of American consumer demand has significant implications for the Boeing 777, perhaps more than any other aircraft." Those airplanes have ferried goods to the U.S. from emerging markets like China and India, and have carried business passengers working in the trade.
According to the International Air Transport Association, air freight volumes have "collapsed," falling by 25% in January from the previous year. The trade group expects world gross domestic product to fall by nearly 2% this year, with no turnaround in sight for air cargo. Emerging markets, which for several years fueled strong growth for air freight carriers, late last year saw a significant decline in cargo traffic.
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I have a serious question. After reading the headlines, week after week, month after month, how can the nation even be standing, or leaning, or whatever. You would think the country would come to a complete standstill, or simply fall out of orbit. I realize things are falling apart, but how long can the entire system hang by such a weak thread? Someone please explain. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteThe federal reserve is attempting to paper over the destruction of wealth. Their latest move of buying long term government bonds sheds light on the desperation of their moves. Every time a central bank has done this it has led to destruction of the currency and hyperinflation. No exceptions. Period. Also interestingly enough, every fiat currency ends and when it ends it ends badly, as in Weimar Republik or Zimbabwe bad. No exceptions here either. Basically if this were a baseball game we would be in the bottom of the ninth, with two outs, and a full count.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't have gold and or silver, a long term supply of food for your family, firearms, a lot of ammo, water filter and garden, Make arrangements NOW while it is still possible. The magnitude of your future suffering is dependent upon your actions today.
Very well said!!!
ReplyDeleteThe answer to the top question is, it's a long drop to the bottom. Check out some anecdotal stories about the collapse of the Argentinian economy arround the millenia, the collapse of the Russian economy following the fracturing of its empire and the collapse of the Jamaican economy after the rise of Michael Manley.
ReplyDeleteThese countries went through "collapses," more or less and while this meant hard times for a large percentage of their populations, commerce continued, people continued to work, money continued to flow, and life continued.
Ultimately, I recommend the average individual prepare for a range of outcomes, not just total breakdown of civilization. There's several floors we could stop on on the way to an 18th century lifestyle. I recommend Ragnar Benson's "Urban Survival." It's a short read and uses anecdotal accounts to prepare the individual for hard times.
Always bear in mind that Mogadishu collapsed a couple of decades ago. There's intermitten electricity, sparse clean water, and little and arbitrary law enforcement. But to date, a million people live in the city and the surrounding areas. They've adapted. They're raising kids and having babies and working and living.
So don't expect the cities to burn to the ground. Don't expect people to become zombies and start eating one another. Don't expect the government to dissolve entirely. And don't expect to be "saved" by a "messiah" coming from the clouds. Civilizations collapse and the people who were once part of them reorganize and move on.