Saturday, November 14, 2009

Analyst: Unemployment Rate going to 12-13%

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
LINK HERE

Job Losses Mount, Enduring and Deep
LINK HERE

3 comments:

  1. Great!

    I guess that means "real" unemployment is going to 30%.

    What this guy stated in the article was true albeit WEAK!

    There was only a cursory mention of employment issues in vague terms.

    He should have addressed the real underlying issues like the dollar, Commercial Real Estate, Outsourcing, and stagnant wages.


    P.S. Has anyone gone Christmas shopping yet? LOL!

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  2. "...perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012."

    No kidding? Gee, I'm glad you're here to tell us these things.

    The way things are going right now, there will without a doubt be at least one legit challenger for Obama in '12, and there is already a decent chance of one of them being third party.

    I realize that Obama inherited this (even though he WAS a senator before - he just never actually "worked"), but it's not like he ia waving a magic wand these days...unless of course you are getting your news from one of the NBC stations.

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  3. Last I checked John Williams over at Shadow Statistics who, unlike the BLS, can calculate US3and U6 and even add them together after fixing the bogus Birth Death Model and the Seasonal Adjustment pegs it at 22%.

    22% in my book is a depression.

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