David Rosenberg, the former Merrill Lynch economist now at Gluskin Sheff, has another of his very bearish reports out, and kicks off with this observation:
The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the recessions of the post-WWII experience were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses.
This rings true to me. The recession vs depression debate is really a matter of semantics, but the facts are that although markets have rebounded impressively, and big companies have regained access to credit, most of the economy and its working-age population will continue to suffer the effects of the current deleveraging for the foreseeable future.
America’s demographics don’t help, either:
The last time we had a consumer recession in the early 1990s, the boomer population was in their early 30s and they were still expanding their balance sheets. The last time we had a bubble burst in 2001 they were in their early 40s. Now they are in their early 50s, the first of the boomers are in their early 60s, and we are talking about a critical mass of 78 million people who have driven everything in the economy and capital markets over the last five decades.
I’m not optimistic that those of us in the post-boomer generation will be able to rekindle America’s historic rates of growth even as the percentage of the population of working age continues to dwindle and the boomers continue to demand the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.
LINK HERE
In addition the coruptocrats are spending at a rate that will never be repaid by normal means! All debt must be paid or defaulted--the ONLY choices are sacrifice(make the payments) or chaos(hyperinflation). The weasel coruptocrats have clearly chosen chaos. They are like the orchestra on the deck of the Titanic--without realizing that they are taking on water!
ReplyDeleteI'm 50-years old. Unemployed for 1.5 years. All the skills I have are of no help to me at this time, but at least I have marketable skills!
ReplyDeleteThis current crop of young adults are, I'm sorry to say, are the most intellectually challenged people I have ever seen.
A few years back, I caved in and bought my 9-year old an X-Box 360. It took me a while, but I finally noticed that some weekends, he sat in front of that flipping machine for 12+ hours a day! His X-Box is now dead and I'm OK with that.
These young adults can't read, can't write (but they can send text messages... OMG, how R U?...) They struggle with basic math and have no idea what the Periodic Table of Elements is. They have no idea who the Speaker of the House is, and have no idea what the 2nd Amendment of the Bill of Rights grantees to all Americans.
Maybe I should be happy that I'm in the "sunset" years of my life and I can die, knowing I gave it my best shot, but I also wish I could stay around another 100 years to try and turn around this mess.
As for the "Coruptocrats", they should be shot on site. It's been a very long time since this country was a government of the people, by the people and FOR THE PEOPLE.
"and the boomers continue to demand the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed."
ReplyDelete--These people need to GROW UP.
6:27
ReplyDeleteI'm a boomer. Believe me, you don't want my lifestyle.
- The best year of my life, I earned $41K as an Aerospace machinist.
- My 401K is worth less than $200.00
- My car is 17-years old. My faith in Slick 50, keeps it running.
- My "trailer" is paid in full
- I have never been to Europe or Hawaii, I've never really had a vacation.
I do know many things:
- I can fix my own car.
- I can weld anything
- I can build a web site and have done so many times.
- I was a:
Police officer
Paramedic
Machinist
Photographer
Videographer
I know who painted the "Mona Lisa"
I have read the autobiography of Fredrick Douglas and I admire him greatly.
I am very "grown up"
@6:09--
ReplyDeleteI am now 65, and I agree totally with what you wrote in your post. I regret your statement on your unemployment, and wish you good luck in the near future with finding a good job.
Back in the 50's and 60's there was a great education available for young men (and women). It was quick, to the point, and gave insight that lasted a lifetime. This "school" was located at Parris Island, SC. The course began with "MAGGOT, you have five seconds to GET OFF MY BUS, and you have already wasted ONE of them!"
For the less capable and less extreme of this school there was Fort Polk, LA, and Fort Bragg, NC. The drill was the same off the bus, and the intensity of the training was a bit less, but still effective. The Parris Island version seemed to hit home and stick with the youngster.
These men and women went to Korea and Vietnam, some never returning. In the 70's, society decided that this was too harsh to force our kids into. Too Bad!!!
6:45 12-11
ReplyDeleteI recall back in the 70's the average Marine Corps DI was ordered to be a "kinder and gentler" DI. It seemed the "Full Metal Jacket" version of training was too hard on the recruits. I guess the idea of being equal to a pile of shit was too hard to handle.
Anyone confused enough to believe youth is smarter now than in the past, think again.
ReplyDeleteLook up what eighth graders took for tests in the late 1800s. A graduate student today would not stand a chance at passing.
This is ALL by design though. The Rockefellers made sure American schools would churn out non-thinking obedient workers.
Our society is that of apathetic drones and that is what they wanted. It took decades but that is what they got.
Even top students these days are nothing more than parrots.
Today, kids are purposefully taught to comply with the "presnted norm". Look and see that we are teaching computers to first graders. The kids have NO chance of self-development, or standing on their own two feet without an electronic gadget to guide them. Go into the corporate offices, and take away the yuppies cell phones, computers, fax machines and copy machines and watch them melt into nothing. Pen and ink are indeed old fashioned, yet extremely effective. I am not against electronics to move the world faster and make the hum of business more streamlined. Not at all against progress.
ReplyDeleteAs long as we can handle the batter on the cordless drill going out, and can then still reach for our brace and bit, we will be ok. We must not fully rely on our ONE WAY of doing things. If the thermostat does not click on the heat, then you gotta chop some wood. On one job lately we were all using nail guns. I gave the newbie a hammer and a nail set, and he had no clue how to get by with those. We must STILL teach the basics---
6:45, look what your authoritarian culture has brought us. Apathy, crime, lack of interest in learning, abused children, dissolved marriages, and so on. You can blame it on the effect, but the cause of the gloom in the present is government, media, greed, and the failing system. And who is speaker of the house and what the 2nd amendment is means little today anyway. Your opinion doesn't matter. They keep doing the same corrupt tthings regardless. So, it's time to tear it down and start over WITHOUT authoritarianism and instead self-reliance and self-rule.
ReplyDeleteI know what you mean about the current crop of young people. I'm amused at the checkout line when the cashier can't make change unless the computerized register tells him/her what to do. I have usually added up my purchases mentally and know what the total should be--that's how I know if the register is correct or not.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what the schools are teaching anymore. I only know that school boards are more concerned with the football team than if the library has books.
My NYC public school education was perfectly fine, as is my grammar, punctuation and spelling.
Oh, and we ARE in a depression.
I agree 3:32, I am 57 yrs. old and am certain, at present, we have seen the best of times as far as jobs and job opportunities go. As far as a smart*** 20or 30 year old's opinion, I really do not want to even entertain the foul air coming from their "educated" mouths.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, most do not know what they are even talking about and secondly, we have what they will never understand, it's called be mature and responsible.
If you cannot understand where you have been, how on Earth will you have any idea where you want to go?
I firmly beleive what Voltaire said, "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Oh, and if smart alecks have no idea who Voltaire is, look it up, maybe you will learn something.