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I thought it would be interesting today to present a few (not-so) fun facts about the jobs market.
Fact 1: The next employment report will be worse.
When the Labor Department puts out the January employment figures on Feb. 4, they will include an assumption that a lot of companies went out of business.
This is something called the birth/death model that is used by the department. Last year it caused 356,000 jobs to be subtracted from the January job count.
So, the next employment figure should be shockingly bad.
Fact 2: The birth/death model will then turn optimistic in the spring, causing jobs that really don't exist to be added to the Labor Department's count.
It won't make the people who are unemployed feel any better. But it could give Wall Street another excuse to rally and, really, isn't that what it is all about?
Fact 3: Nobody in the media will pick up on this, but the Labor De partment will also do something called a benchmark revision on Feb. 4 that will subtract around 840,000 jobs that the government thought existed, but really don't.
This will mostly make up for the mistakes created by the birth/death model.
Fact 4: That 840,000 job adjustment will only correct errors up to March 2009. Mistakes for the April 2009 to March 2110 period will be corrected next year.
Fact 5: You keep reading that the unemployment rate stayed at 10 percent. But the press has been playing up the 17.3 percent rate that includes those "underemployed," meaning they can't find a full-time job but want one.
I've been mentioning that under-employed figure -- called U-6 by the Labor Department -- for years and I'm glad everyone else has finally caught up.
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I heard that birth death thing was artificially keeping it down like .5% just on the U3 number. The real number is 21.9% when you add in the quit looking discouraged unemployed more than a year people which they dropped from U6 back in 1994. There are also rumors the last few months they have slightly tweaked the "are you actively looking for work question" to get a few more people into the U6 number instead of the U3 number... exetend and pretend is the game now...
ReplyDeleteThey are starting to hire people for the census now and get this supposedly over a million will be hired compared to the 170,000 they hired for the last census to help the unemployment number - what a joke...
ReplyDeleteSince he was featured here recently - here is the idiot Pat Robertson at it again. A smart, rich, putrid man. Like most who use the myth to their advantage.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.clevelandleader.com/node/12608
Some say 27% out of work or taking part time jobs..let's bring the jobs back from China, or it will get worse month by month until we're a totally third world country. There is not much outcry among so called patriots; blame the labor unions too.
ReplyDeleteWhen I was a kid in the 1960's, nearly everything in my parents house was made in America.
ReplyDeleteAmerican made appliances
American made TV and radio
American made bikes in the garage
American made cars in the driveway
American made jeans and shoes
My American made Timex watch
American made cameras... I can't remember anything in our house that was not American made.
Then we slowly started to buy, cheap quality, low priced crap from Japan and then China. American factories were eventually closed and jobs lost, a victim of Japanese and Chinese imports.
You all know the rest of the story. As a manufacturing based economy, we were "King of the Hill" and now as a consumption based economy, we're headed directly for that Black Hole that will suck us in, never to be seen again, unless we reverse our direction.
People really need to look carefully at the amount of money the Federal Reserve system makes and compounding interest on the entire debt of the USA. IT IS THE PROBLEM ... yes Job outsourcing and illegal immigrants, and etc ... are a problem but the Federal Reserve system is the BIG PROBLEM.
ReplyDelete7:19, inflation and entitlement/war/gov't spending made wages too costly for american manufacturers to compete too, without comparable wage increases to pay for made-in-america. that period is long ago and faraway.
ReplyDelete"Mistakes for the April 2009 to March 2110 period will be corrected next year"
ReplyDeleteThe Gov must employ psychics to be able to do that.
It is never solely the banking entity that has collapsed a great empire in the past. It is usually a myriad of things, and usually excesses across the board, extending oneself too far, and the big one: the resources drying up with which to prop up the whole thing in the first place. You can throw in the mix war, disease, famine, and natural calamnity, for they are ever-present. The Fed is just a smaller part of the bigger picture, though a majority of the posters her see it as the ONLY problem.
ReplyDeleteWatch for a black swan event...
ReplyDeleteWatch out for Blacula as well.
ReplyDeleteObama is flipping the guy talking off in that photo! Seriously, the finger ain't no coincidence. Look at his eyes backing the finger up.
ReplyDeleteBeautiful!
He knows we are *ucked, he inhereted a sinking ship. And there is NOTHING he can do about it. But he at least sees it and is pissed at the folks selling him the same old line.
ahhhhh!! scream blacula scream!!!
ReplyDeleteBlack is beautiful, and so is green!
ReplyDeleteBut all we see is red on every bankers screen!
and so do you
ReplyDelete