Thursday, September 2, 2010

The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style Depression

Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression -- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that.

Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33 months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices,
gross domestic product, credit outstanding, organic personal income and employment are all lower now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn.

"We can understand that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style (even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief."
See full article from DailyFinance:  Here.

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  1. I completely agree with the assessment on the current Depression II. My grandfather had to endure the harsh reality of the Great Depression I with no government unemployment. Now let us move forward to June 2011. Those that are currently drawing on the 99 weeks unemployment will resemble those people of the 1930, unemployment to count on. Perhaps they will be able to get food stamps, but living with relatives and friends will soon grow old. This is but one example of the times ahead. Are there any other examples out there? Please share your thoughts.

  2. UI extensions ended last month. There will be no more extensions, so we're told. Anyone who loses their job this week will get 26 weeks (here in California) and NO MORE.

    I am a 99'er with no income.

    All I can see in the near future is violent social unrest and tent cities for the 40 million currently out of work.

    So let's pretend a tent city with a population of 300 men, women and children pops up somewhere. They are all unemployed, 99'ers. No income, no money to buy food. Where will the food and water come from? Who will provide it? Food banks and shelters are running out of resources. Cities, Counties and States are bankrupt.

    So they plant a garden, wonderful idea, but it will still be 3 months minimum before anything can be harvested.

    Where do 300 people go potty? Where do they shower and wash cloths?

    Now imagine a tent city of 1,000 people.

    This scenario is very likely to begin before the end of the year.

    Think out that for a while.

  3. 11:35 am I am full agreement with you but I find no real anger yet...Just a lot of talk.

    If there is a semi-crash the powder is there all it needs is the match...That's spooky.

    Best wishes for you and yours.

  4. 9:31 back again. Wow, you all have posted some heavy duty info here, but who will do something. I like the term that you coined "99'er" This is running out on the 99'er. It's time to do something, beside writing. C'mon, let get the ball rolling. This is serious times.

  5. Jeffsfo at yahoo dot comSeptember 2, 2010 at 5:16 PM

    12:03 & 12:09, 11:35 here again

    It's a difficult issue alright.

    - A person loses his/her job
    - An average of 450,000 people lose their jobs every week, nation wide.
    - They must reduce expenses
    ** Cancel the Cable TV
    ** Cancel the fitness center membership
    ** Pull the kids out of private school (two Catholic schools near me just closed up after more than 50 years of service)
    ** Cancel all but one cell phone or go pre-paid
    ** Lose any health insurance they might had had
    ** No more eating out and fast food
    ** Cloths shopping is now done at Thrift Stores

    Even all the above won't stop the trains from colliding.

    - Next the car is repossessed
    - The house is foreclosed
    - The credit rating is shattered
    - They sell everything they can on Craig's List
    - The job search continues, but nobody is hiring.
    - The stress gets unbearable and divorce is threatened
    - Where do we live next? Friends, family? Will we be homeless?
    - They take the last few dollars they have left and buy a tent and tell the kids, "we're going camping"! Eventually the kids ask, "daddy, when are we going home"?

    Where lies the answer?

    Religious folks, Nuns and Monks live in community. Everything is shared and everyone is expected to help support the community. Some communities survive by:

    - Baking and selling bread
    - Making and canning jams, jellies, salsas
    - Growing grapes and making wine
    - Building useful, well constructed things from hard wood
    - Weaving and knitting
    - Metal working
    - Candle making

    This is beginning to sound like a Manufacturing Based economy, just like we used to have a long time ago, people made things and other people bought them, now we have a service based economy... I'll wash you car, if you cut my hair.

    There are no quick fixes and the problem is only going to get worse.

  6. WTF? I try to get on the 'zombie hotels" story and have to log in? This sight is a big phishing scam

  7. I am in the process of getting rid of my cable TV. I have been cutting back. All I can say is thank God my wife got a half way decent job which seems safe at present. I believe God provided in this case, it came at the right time and it is just what we needed. Even though we are all going through this misery.. I found it helps to trust God. If you have not tried it maybe you should start. I am not trying to get preachy on here. I just know from my own personal experience that he intervened in my behalf when I did not even realize he was doing it. But it was not because I did not know him I do. I feel if we are to survive the coming events down the line it will only be because we trust God. Because what is developing will test the most competent of people to their limits. I know it sounds all doom and gloom don't mean to do this. Just trying to be real. At least consider what I am saying. If you are not religiously inclined look at it in a different way.. Look at it as survival and getting to know the one who can help you.. I don't mean using him, I mean Trusting Him. When it comes down to the basics of life we NEED God to live. Many are learning this now.. I don't think it's a bad thing to learn.

  8. So, not being preachy ,but acording to the comments here if the wife doesnt get a half way decent safe job , we should all go medieval ,join a monastary , or a nunnery and cancel cable , the lord will provide if we have the faith and non of us never need to be a 99ner in need of the basics, if we make our own bread and candles and cut each others hair by candlelight
    And have canned jellies for desert.
    So no need to wait for the Lord to divvy up the loaves and the fishes no preachy preachy just DIY .
    Americas future economy, in land of the free but with no more free lunch.


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