The first report provides sort-of-good “news” on the economy: It’s not dead! Even better: It’s not dying!
In an op-ed piece posted on CNN on October 29 from Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), they conclude:
The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen.They have harsh criticism of the Fed–but no criticism of either President Obama or Congress–yet they conclude no recession is imminent. Since this is opinion and not fact, color me skeptical about the timing of ECRI’s “free” release of data (they charge big bucks for their research).
That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World War II slowdowns that didn’t lead to recession.
It would seem that there can only be one good reason why ECRI released this information now at just the right time, the weekend before the election. Not that I’m Sherlock Holmes or even Doctor Watson, but when the impossible is eliminated, what remains, however unlikely, must be the answer.
Let’s go back in time with ECRI.
In an interview with ECRI’s Dr. Achuthan on Jan. 20 he says that Mr. Obama has to move quickly to get the stimulus program enacted. ECRI thinks the “stimulus” is very important.
Yet a mere 3 months later, after weeks of increasing optimism in its news releases, ECRI said:
The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.More Here..
The group, whose leading indicators have a solid track record of predicting turns in the business cycle, said on Thursday enough of its key gauges have turned upward to indicate with certainty that a recovery is coming.
“The end of this recess...