Saturday, December 4, 2010

Unstack The Employment Charts

One reason economists are frequently surprise is they have a tendency to extrapolate every economic uptick perpetually into the future yet they seldom do the same for negative news.

I have no idea why this is so, but history certainly suggests that it is so.

Last month, economists were giddy over retail hiring but I commented several times that I did not think it was sustainable. Today Calculated Risk has a very nice chart that shows that to be the case.


It's easier to see what is happening if you unstack the chart. I did not go back to the actual data but I did move the bars around.

Holiday Season Hiring Unstacked


Looked this way, last months seasonal hiring was not that great. I discussed this on November 15, in In Search of 1.1 Million Jobs Claimed by Obama; Where the Hell are They?

12 comments:

  1. We are witnessing exactly what happens when liberal progressives hack, tax and spend; push thru a myriad of stupid laws that benefit more
    and more entitlements and all the while enact penalizing constraints on American manufacturers; forcing them to be uncompetitive in a world marketplace.

    We have lost hundreds of thousands of manufacturers in this country; never to come back. The latest tragedy is the Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. China, The entire Middle East, Russia; The baltics - have ALL had major disasters in the past with Oil and Gas production.

    But only in the USA could we dream up something so idiotic and then turn around and give Mexico the money and the site and the platforms with which to continue - and then turn around and do the same for Brazil.

    In sector after sector; leather, glass, textiles, steel, lumber, rubber, plastics
    we have done the exact same thing and now are foeced to import a full 60% of these basic neccesities of life.

    Only when it crashes and crashes hard will these liberal progressive pawns realize - woops - too late!

    ReplyDelete
  2. This sending away of jobs had 8 strong years of leaving the country, while bush ran it, these wacky conservabots followed his every move, they sanctioned this, obama has been in 2 years, the 8 years of damage done before him, can never be undone. Two unwinable wars, patriot act strips us of our rights, 911 no investigation just lies, has brought us to where we are now, just look at the tsa that came into being under bush as an example.

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  3. Hey 12:35. Sorry Clinton started NAFTA. It would have taken the new Democratic congress a week to turn everything around. It would have taken the new Democratic congress a week to stop the wars including the one your hero expanded. If your democratic congress didn't want inflation, there wouldn't be any. You must believe that if you tell a lie often enough all the idiots will believe it as truth. Or you one of the idiots?

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  4. Both of you are morons.

    12:20 wants to suck a rich man's penis for his whole life, if he hasn't already spent his life doing so. He might be angry now that he worked in a factory or hauling bricks for decades to find out he can't retire. He worked so hard for some lazy dick rich man to send his family on vacations while his workers break their backs just for food.

    12:35 shut the fuck up. Idiot. Fucking liberal.

    FUCK CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS! FUCK THE COUNTRY!

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  5. Wow, 1:48 I take offense. I'm a rich guy. Just because you made all the wrong choices in life don't blame others. Here's a song you'll like:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv0q3cW3x1s

    How did your life long invest for retirement plan work out for you?

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  6. 1:48 - I own the factory you speak of; for now. When you speak with such adolecent venom - shows the readers here your hatred for yourself. You cannot belittle me; I an a self made man and owe no-one.

    The point remains however that the liberal progressives in this country have managed to basically bankrupt us; all the while giving their constituents ever increasing entitlements - that unfortunatly are paid for by an ever decreasing manufacturing base.

    With ever increasing entitlements and a shrinking manufacturing base; it's just a matter of time. Throw in a couple wars that we aren't allowed to ever actually win and have closure; a health care bill that defies description and whamo ! End of the line.

    Hope you can do something positive in your life with all that hate.

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  7. republican democrat..dem signed nafta yea, rep signed us into nwo..each 1 does what told at what time but perhaps only 1 major issue, so bush sr. did nwo but was also pressed hard to sign nafta but wouldn't, so clinton did that one, the bush jr gave us patriot act, obama gives us tzars and tightening of patriot act. meanwhile americans fight about reps and dems,-those in power, when after all a power of a country is it's people. seems emergency's act is supposed to be reviewed every 6 months yet congress has yet to meet and every yr pat act gets worse and many say continuance of government act supercedes constitutional emergency's act, so are we even under constitution anymore? which is it, declared emergency or continuence of gov act? congress does nada and won't clarify where or what we are anymore and ignores all calls for them to fulfill their position and power...perhaps they have none, and the tzars have it now. anyway-still we bicker about dems and reps-suit colors of the same roll of cloth. this situation has been built over a long period of time.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Why don't you all stop sucking off the dicks of your respective parties? While you're at it stop sucking on the dick of corporate america, middle and upper class privilege, a failed (from the start) economic structure, and government in general because it only makes you sound like a dick.

    ReplyDelete
  9. So ,the owners of US industry and jobs in high waged America de-industrialized the country by seeking their profits from cheap labor in the third world .
    The “left” and “liberal progressives” in order to head of any opposition from working people ran a “benefits of this free trade for capital’ propaganda scam cover for the financial play , by pretending NAFTA etc would all be ok ,as long as working peoples “entitlements” existed ,super - clever -productive Americans would soon create new jobs on computer keyboards and such ,with call centers in selling services to each other. Pension benefits they paid for would always be there just as property values always rose.
    No worries there!

    The mighty dollar hegemony would keep the flow of bucks for commodities circulating

    Wars against the Third World for ensuring other countries were locked into this dollar hegemony free trade system for the continuing supply of cheap labor commodities and continuing of natural resources supply like oil .
    Keynesian militarism reigned ,but the strong dollar value was being inflated away.
    Oil producing countries like the Saudis pricing their oil in dollars created world ensured a worldwide demand for dollars to buy oil.
    Countries that resist that oil pricing in dollars regime may be subject to invasion like Iraq ,others who resist the US Central bank scams for printing US dollars sold to the government as public debt to keep the Keynesian spending going , are said to be part of an “axis of evil” like an Iran that refuses to price its oil and gas in dollars.

    A Ponzi credit serial bubble economy was created until it all fell apart when foreign credit supply dried up because the US finance sector was making most of its profits from selling AAA fraudulent promises ,claim titles to incomes from debts that could not be made .So the credit supply necessary to keep up the interest on past investments in any Ponzi ended in American insolvency.

    In order to distract attention from the fact that America was de-industrialized and most productive of physical wealth jobs were being exported ,that in fact even the call center jobs had been exported to India by capital and therefore unemployment is surging ,tens of millions are now living on food stamps ,or only have low pay part time jobs .
    The economy it is said is improving driven as it is by a jobless recovery .
    Yet ,the spokespersons for the job exporters capital need somebody else to blame for the lack of real productive of wealth jobs in America today .
    So, now its lets blame the left liberal progressives as the real creators of this economic problem as they have created a culture of entitlements ,entitlements that clearly are unaffordable and can only be financed by expanding the national debt.
    But, everybody knows that recovery depends on money printing and deficit spending should only be made for socializing the past losses of capital in the finance sector and for wars to keep the Empires dollar wheels oiled and by fighting those job destroying criminal progressive liberals and their capital regulatory and American entitlement culture.
    Free money lunches only should exist in the real world at Wall st. end of year bonus parties.

    Only stupid lazy Americans fed on the entitlement propaganda of the liberal progressive wing of the political set up could actually believe they are entitled to anything now that the jobs are mostly exported.
    Dreamers!
    . Capital has already been kind to them by extending credit beyond any reasonable limits. Now its time for the millions Debt Peons to pay their bills or vacate their houses.

    And get their greedy little “entitlement’ begging unemployed lazy hands out of the governments revenues till.
    So the TBTF can continue to collect all their due returns for the great risk taken by capital and the military industrial complex in securing economic security for America and free trade for capital ;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Good Lord!! Where is the outrage? Even Biden has said the jobs will never return to America.

    So, where are the jobs for our children. Just read a new book that's a must read cause it's Amerians actually taking a stand. Like others, Iwon't have much to spend this holiday, but I'm send this thriller out to others. It's about each of us.

    www.booksbyoliver.com

    The trade deficit is the true indicator of how bad we are dependent on foreign worker to make what we want. Buying America is a great idea but what is left in America to buy? Not much. Good article.

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  11. These assholes that constantly post here and put down this country and are forever bitching about elite this and elite that and upper class this and rich that.

    They all need rounded up and sent to Russia - better yet China, you want to find out what no rights and poor means - you ungrateful fucks.

    Their are literally millions upon millions of examples of people who had NOTHING and rose to the top in this country - hell the icoming speaker of the house is one of 12 kids born in rural Ohio to dirt poor parents.

    Take your whining to the above mentioned countries - there you will be shot for bitching and have a right to bitch - here in the USA you have nothing to bitch about except your own ineptness.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete

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