You're not going to make money betting on the consensus. So if you're looking for contrarian investments, Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite has picked out 11 economic events that are more likely than anyone thinks.
Surprise scenarios include $2,000 gold by year-end. Several factors support this "surprise" including:
- Gold goes up when real Fed fund rates are negative -- and they are
- Excess leverage leads to money printing or default
- China and Japan haven't started buying gold yet
- Gold does not display characteristics of a bubble
- The inflation-adjusted gold price is still well-below peak
Credit Suisse is keeping an official target of $1,500 for gold, but it admits that these factors could drive a major surprise to the upside.