What are we talking about?
For starters, the Federal Reserve’s recent report, which received nary a comment from the political and financial pundits on television.
While the economy was on the minds of most voters last night, what they didn’t know may have very well swung the election to one candidate over another.
And this particular tidbit of data is as important as it gets when we’re talking about economic health:
Here’s an interesting new data point that the St Louis Fed has put together to calculate recession probabilities:
“Recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. “ Read more....