"Initial Claims" were 584,000 today, scream the headlines, and the pumpers all claim this is "better than expected" when looking at continuing claims, which declined slightly to 6.416 million on a 4-week rolling basis.
But those numbers don't include the people who rolled off the original 13 week unemployment rolls and onto the extended programs (which go out to 52 weeks in many cases), and as such the number is being dramatically under-reported.
That's a problem - see, there are 2,656,879 people in that bin, an increase of 24,518 from the prior week, and worse, 352,482 people rolled off the 13 week program last week!
So the real increase was about 50,000 people, not 24,000 in the current week, because you have to add back in those that have been removed from the count but are still unemployed!
Again: 352,483 people, or well over half of the newly-filed claims, rolled off the original 13 week benefits onto extended benefits. This is where the "decrease" in the 4-week moving average came from. This little machination means that there was not actual decrease in the 4-week moving average of people on unemployment; to the contrary those on unemployment increased, not decreased!
"Extended benefits" are people who cannot find work within three months of being laid off, and are being forced onto the expanded benefit programs. Until the moving average change drops to close to zero including extended benefits the labor market is not slowing its rate of contraction!
Worse, we're going to start losing people off the "extended" benefits soon (next month) which will make it nearly impossible to count the real number of unemployed, and those who drop off extended benefits will have no income whatsoever, which means they won't be paying taxes - or spending.
The total count of people on both 13 week and extended benefits (raw numbers, not seasonally adjusted) is 8.718 million, another new record.
Don't believe the "green shoot" callers - this report was horrendous and shows continued dramatic contraction in the workforce and economy.
Link
l'm moving to kenya so l can run for
ReplyDeletepresident of the u.s.a.
No need for that. You just have to swear undying allegiance to Goldman Sachs.
ReplyDeleteI look forward and thank you for the critical information your site provides.
ReplyDeleteI live in Canada and to date I really do not know what to believe.
It seems like happy days are here again.
What the **** is going on!!
Anonymous Toronto, Canada
YEAH i LIVE IN CANADA TOO.THE GOVERNMENT AND BANK OF CANADA ARE TALKING LIKE THE RECESSION IS OVER AND GOOD TIMES ARE JUST AROUND THE QUARTER.What the hell is really going on in canada are things really not that bad.Is all the bad stuff U.s bound.help im totally confused .Ive bought a lot of silver and gold have I wasted my time has the crisis here in Canada passed.No need to worry about rapid inflation.HElp!!!
ReplyDeleteI live in canada ive been following alternateb msm news stories .Bought a lot of gold and silver too.in the last year im the only one whose bought bullion at my local bank --a big name bank.Am I just well informed and the sharpest guy in town or have I just be sucked into the gold and silver investment hype.
ReplyDeleteYou CA guys just need to be patient. Things are NOT getting better despite what the MSM says. The bankers or whoever you believe are at the top are trying to bait and switch people into believing that good times are here again.
ReplyDeleteGood times are not here again. The underlying problems that caused this depression(and it is a depression, that will be seen clearly soon) have not been fixed. What the Feds and others have done is to put a piece of gum over a crack in a very large dam.
It will hold for a while but eventually the water will win and come rushing forth destorying everything in its path.
For good CA economic news I would check www.greaterfool.ca
He doesn't recommend gold or silver(I think from my limited reading) but he gives good advice. Read for yourself but please, if the good times are right around the corner, wait and see if it is true for yourself.
Don't make rash judgments and end up regretting it later on. Patience will save the day.
I am hoping that the head fakes will allow me more time to live life 'normally' and accumulate more food, silver and prepare at a slow pace.
ReplyDeleteNo plunge into ecomomic oblivion happens without people first being deceived into thinking all is well. That allows the perps to put their ducks in a row at your expense.
Canadians take heed: The Harper Gov't received word that this recession is not close to being over. The banks have a Trillion dollar derivative exposure EACH, that have to unwind. Your combined taxes that are occurring in each province is for a reason..THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF MONEY! All your taxes will be sky high. Interest rates will be going UP..WAY UP! Gold and Silver are your ONLY options..Read Jim Sinclair. If you believe your Bank of Canada shill that this depression is over..then you deserve what you get. Poverty, homeless, unemployed and compltely BROKE!
ReplyDeleteI have followed Garth Turner for years. when it comes to GOLD and Silver he is not the brightest bulb in the mall. He stated do not buy Gold at $600! Silver at $4! Hey Garth anyone in that empty head and PLEASE do not run again..
ReplyDeleteI bought gold at about $650-$690 and everyone, and I do mean everyone said I was a retard for doing it.
ReplyDeleteGo with your own instincts. Right now, I like silver ounce coins when they did below $13.50 which is not very often.
Silver will be a $45.00 long before Gold is at $3000.00
ReplyDeletegold and silver will follow stock market during the deflation period. Cash again is the king. This is the credit bubble inflation not currency inflation.
ReplyDeleteVery possible that G/S prices will come down with everything else, but when the damn breaks and the banksters turn loose the trillions in reserves, cash will definitely not be 'king.'
ReplyDeleteIn the Great Depression cash was king because cash was rare. It is not rare this time around. It is being printed as fast as the printing press can spit it out, and computer digits can be created. The fraudulent private Fed is throwing hundreds of billions around like candy.
Cash's days are numbered. Hoard all the cash you want and good luck with that!
Worst case gold: $250/oz
ReplyDeleteWorst case silver: $5/oz
Worst case dollar: .00000000001 cents
Case closed on the risk PM vs cash.
I like Karl Denninger. He along with Bob Chapman and a few of the other 'gold bugs' have been correct the past couple of years I've been reading them. Jim Sinclair, Jim Willie CB are also good honest guys that didn't become gold bugs until it started to become painfully obvious what was afoot in the financial world. If you do the math, you see that many things in the present circumstances are simply unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteThe income of the average american has to fit a model of production. Without production you don't have any real wealth being created. This is simple economic theory folks. Basically, everything America has been living on since manufacturing went overseas is borrowed money. The banks are completely destroyed. By the time all of this is said and done the average american will own nothing and may actually owe besides that.
There are numerous reasons this is going to be worse than the great depression. Bob Chapman did a comparison between 1929 and 2008 and found that we are in far worse shape on 8 different points.
Savings rate, industrial production, local food production, and so on.
You'll find out.
I am sure that is 100% correct.
ReplyDeleteLove the YOU'LL FIND OUT.
I dont think Fed can easily printed out the USD while china is watching us. The paper is actually rare at the moment, Banks got no cash money for us but keep for themselves or close.
ReplyDeleteYou should know that the current bullish gold and silver was caused by the credit money not the paper money. They will dump G/S to cover their losses and liquidity while asia and you keep buying them using paper money, what a sad.
to the admin:
ReplyDeleteThere is a wonderful, very informative video with a russian professor who predicted the collapse of the USSR.. and he gave a very informative interview on how the same is now happening in the USA.. go to zerohedge.com or maxkeiser.com to get the videos..
I think it would be very informative for your readers.
Thanks.
Anon above. I have had these videos on this blog numerous times. They get alot of their info from here. I find it, they expand and discuss it.
ReplyDeleteI think we should have a 'coming economic depression' CON in a hotel somewhere like the Bellagio in Vegas cuz now we can book them at 10% of the price, and we can all party like it's 1999.
ReplyDelete:)
Can't print out the dollar en masse while the Chinese are watching? Are you kidding?
ReplyDeleteDo you think the Chinese are allowed to know exactly what the Fed is doing and when? Congress isn't even allowed to know that! The Fed is printing, printing and printing some more. The Fed banks are packed full of hundreds of billions of digits/dollars just waiting for the green light from daddy Fed to open the dam.
When that happens, the dollar will plunge into oblivion. G/S as well as anyTHING has intrinsic value. Worthless fiat paper does not.
Just like the Great Depression they are engineering this collapse. In the first one they shut off the printing press and credit. This time they are opening the floodgates of fiat crap currency at a time of their choosing. Get the hell out of the dollar.
Any nine year old can figure out HOW they are going to cause the ultimate crash, the only question is WHEN.
Without the scumbags at the Fed and their minion puppet politicians there would be no boom times, no recessions, no depressions. Just good 'ol stability. A REAL free market economy would be a great thing. We just have not had one in over 96+ years.
ReplyDeleteThe banker MSM would like to convince everyone that the Fed and the banks are there to help you. To hold your hand.
Taxation with representation was not the trigger for us kicking British ass. It was them forcing their banking and currency BS upon the colonies. We won, but the parasites got their way by leaving their bloodsuckers behind.
The Fed can not print money fast enough to off set what Americans have lost in the last 2 years. It is estimated that Americans wealth has fallen by $15 Trillion. Coupled with that,is the fact the velocity of money is near zero. About 97% of the money supply is created by credit and the fractional reserve system of the banks. Deflation rules the day, but when the money multiplier heads upwards, watch out. Hyper inflation will come screaming in. But that will only happen AFTER an acutaul recovery.
ReplyDeleteThere are two bags and a small pouch before you. One is filled with cash money. The second is double bagged and is stuffed with caned food. The third small pouch contains a few score of junk silver coins and silver dollars. Now imagine you hear they will have to begin fuloughs of most governmental employees and will reduce servises 50%. You hear the grocery store shelves are starting to run empty much of the time. Someone then comes to your door and asks for your help. Do you give them one of the two bags or the small pouch? Which one do you hand over? Has there been a recovery? Case closed.
ReplyDelete