Here is Professor Krugman's presentation to the Allied Social Science Associations this coming Monday: CRISES
Krugman discusses several currency crises and compares them to the current U.S. deleveraging cycle. Here is an excerpt (picking up near the conclusion):
Plunging prices of houses and CDOs ... don’t produce any corresponding macroeconomic silver lining. ... This suggests that we’re unlikely to see a phoenix-like recovery from the current slump. How long should recovery be expected to take?
Well, there aren’t many useful historical models. But the example that comes closest to the situation facing the United States today is that of Japan after its late-80s bubble burst, leaving serious debt problems behind. And a maximum-likelihood estimate of how long it will take to recover, based on the Japanese example, is ... forever. OK, strictly speaking it’s 18 years, since that’s how long it has been since the Japanese bubble burst, and Japan has never really escaped from its deflationary trap.
LINK HERE
lol - I have been seeing this blog now for about 5 months. Doom and gloom all the time. Yet on the otherhand I have friends who are savvy investors who are prospering during this downtime. Remeber, money is never lost, it just exchanges hands. Yes its bad, but NOT THAT BAD WHERE THE WORLD IS GOING TO FALL OVER A CLIFF AND NEVER RETURN. cmon ~
ReplyDeleteThe "Peak Oil" theory sets the upper boundary of "recovery" to any global growth scenario.
ReplyDeleteThe banksters/Bilderburgers/Illuminati/(your metaphor here) are well aware of Peak Oil and will certainly be preparing themselves, their offspring AND YOU, for the permanent decline in cheap oil.
Colin Campbell, a retired petro-geologist, said it best in 2005: Increasing oil production is collateral for debt-based money. When the increase turns negative (decline) then the collateral disappears and the money collapses.
This is what we are seeing today. Peak Oil simply refers to a month and year when world production peaks for all time, then starts down.
Read this document by Robert Hirsch, whose 2005 report to the Dept of Energy was suppressed in the media: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/4789
Matt Savinar also gives a convincing but simple overview: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
To get the "big picture" watch Chris Martenson's "Crash Course" on his website here: http://www.chrismartenson.com/
I see that all comments must be approved by the owner of this blog. Every morning I go on line and this blog is the first place I go for current info on the soon to come TEOTWAWKI. Perhaps it won't be any longer.
ReplyDeleteSo much for the 1st Ammendment.
2.32 you make a good point some are prospering during this downturn however aside from a few savvy investors and a collective we call Corrupt Scum.RE.certain politicians and the bankster elite.The majority of Americans are getting it right up the olde hinne.The tragedy is for the most part the collective majority have no idea their getting screw big time and wont until the elite can no longer keep up the fascade thru corruption misinformation.By this juncture the average American will be poor and the elite minority scum will be long gone to greener pastures.
ReplyDeleteI dont see a solution.The Peter Schiffs of this world are correct about cause and effect and remedy but such remedies will never fly politicablly.One can only hope once the system collapses a more equitable replaces it.
Buy Gold and Silver asap if youve got the money.Dont be fooled by all this volitilaty these elitist scum are just trying to scare off the average investor.Keep the course all will be well if you have some gilt or silver when this systems implodes.
The difference between Japan and the U.S./Europe is that Japan had an enormous export to finance everything. The U.S./ Europe don't produce anything to export.
ReplyDeleteJapan borrowed from their own people. There are no savings, so the U.S. will have to borrow abroad.
2:32 I HEAR YOU !!! I have said this OVER and OVER in many different ways; mostly what I get in return I won't re-print.
ReplyDelete6:12 tell that to brazil which will start production later this year on a new little oil patch off Rio de janerio to the tune of 700 million barrels.
10:01 I agree - gold and silver will never go out of style
2:36 - Let us accept with complete accuracy that 700 billing barrels accurately reflects the ultimate recoverable amount. (the oil exists, the oil is 100% recoverable, postitive EROEI, etc). OK. World uses 20 million PER DAY. Assuming this ideal case, then Brazil contributes THIRTY FIVE (35) days of consumption.
ReplyDeleteThe world needs numerous BILLION barrel discoveries per year just to stay in place.
Look at the discovery numbers first. Discovery ALWAYS proceeds production. Look at the numbers.
We are screwed.
3:12 I was not disputing your basic premise of peak oil - rather that neat little "global" part you threw in there.
ReplyDeleteIt is time this country gets in the 21st century - thinking inside the box doesn't cut it; we have way too many large problems.
We; as a nation can no longer afford to hop scotch willy nilly hither and yon trying to smother fire after fire on subjects too numerous to mention. No sir - we had better set to task.
Our number one priority 25 years ago should have been energy independence - people don't realize that every other problem we face pales in comparison. Not only are we currently totally dependant on oil( foriegn to boot) we are totally addicted to the point where over 95% of our economy lasts only 3 months after the last ship unloads in galveston. In the midst of the worst economic downturn since the great depression oil trades at 80 bucks a barrel - and we think this is going where when this thing spins around??
Brazil is energy independant. I have been there many times; these people know = going forward; this is the answer to either surviving or perish.
They have made their choice to drill - us? we sit here like the turkeys we are --gobble gobble
The discovery has already been done we have it - do you hear me california?? Oh that's right I'm asking the state that turned off the water to 900 farmers to save a couple 2" smelt. UGH !!!!
Typo correction: above should read "700 million barrels" (not "billing")
ReplyDeleteHere on the east coast, a major home builder is going bankrupt. There are several commercial/industrial builders going bankrupt as well. This looks to be a long, dismal, winter. I see no end to this crises anytime soon.
ReplyDelete4;45 I have not heard of any major east coast builder going under - can you give us a .name??
ReplyDeleteI agree crises is the word
We in it for the long haul. In due time we will look like the 1800's, but with more people and a few old "toys" left over from the high technology age. Things will start looking ragged. Certain examples from the show "Life After People" will become more common-place. Individuals will be reusing crumbling infrastructure, including abandoned housing as well as commercial real estate. If there is a World War III, perhaps Mad Max will not be an innaccurate comparison. But would all society be ruled by marauders and death? I doubt it. But the cities will go through the most chaotic transitions. some, though may do so more peacefully when they become near ghost-towns and than continue from that point at a lower density.
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