The contraction of M3 money in the US and Europe over the last six months will slowly puncture economic recovery as 2010 unfolds, with the time-honoured lag of a year or so. Ben Bernanke will be caught off guard, just as he was in mid-2008 when the Fed drove straight through a red warning light with talk of imminent rate rises – the final error that triggered the implosion of Lehman, AIG, and the Western banking system.
As the great bear rally of 2009 runs into the greater Chinese Wall of excess global capacity, it will become clear that we are in the grip of a 21st Century Depression – more akin to Japan's Lost Decade than the 1840s or 1930s, but nothing like the normal cycles of the post-War era. The surplus regions (China, Japan, Germania, Gulf ) have not increased demand enough to compensate for belt-tightening in the deficit bloc (Anglo-sphere, Club Med, East Europe), and fiscal adrenalin is already fading in Europe. The vast East-West imbalances that caused the credit crisis are no better a year later, and perhaps worse. Household debt as a share of GDP sits near record levels in two-fifths of the world economy. Our long purge has barely begun. That is the elephant in the global tent.
More Here
This is so frustrating. All of this is staring us right in the face yet people still want to act like "it's a party in the USA."
ReplyDeleteIt may be a global depression but Americans will suffer the most. We have the farthest to fall.
ReplyDeletehmm.. I'm just your average blue collar worker, but I can tell you, i'm better off now than ever. I can't see how you all say things are bad. Maybe it's only in some countries. It's definately not global. Besides , the global bankers are having some big secret meeting to fix everything up. (that last line is sarcasm).
ReplyDelete1,11 are you a complete dick.open your eyes and look around,and stop posting lies.Does the government pay you to come out with this crap,or are you just a sad lonely man with no woman,but a strong right arm.
ReplyDeleteAll you good folk out there that for the last year have been screaming about too many people & not enough resources need to read carefully the beginning of 2nd paragraph.
ReplyDeleteThere IS TOO MUCH PRODUCTION CAPACITY and I MEAN OF EVERYTHING - GOLD AND SILVER included
( sorry you PM bugs but it's the truth )
2:07 Don't forget your medicine today it helps you control yourself a little better. Try not to panic and remember when things fall apart you should have at least a years worth of your meds in stock. You can get most meds from Mexico with the exception of narcotics. Hormones, blood pressure, insulin, nitro etc. Be careful when buying from Mexico, there are a lot of scamers down there... I have it on good report that most of what you hear about Mexican prescription drugs is a lie from the FDA and the Drug companies.
ReplyDelete6.03 i think your the one on medicine or drugs,also i am quite calm,after all i will make out okay,also i dont live in your country thank god.now you can go back to telling lies.
ReplyDeleteI bought valium in mexico it was brand, it was fine and less than half the price the us charges, FDA and drug companies don't want you going to mexico, Now on the flip side I did buy some rx from india that was crap I ended up throwing it away. It was not valium, as valium from india was fine. Just to find out I had a corner drug store that offered me 30 day supply of generic fo 10 bucks. If you have BP meds and your doctor thinks your nuts for stocking up, just fax the copy to several internet rx companies to get a stock of it. Please do not abuse the system.
ReplyDeleteNow I wanted to know do you all think it's safe to hold cash in banks or to hold only some cash and buy " real assetts". I know someone told me to sell my rentals that I own outright, but then put that money where ? Even if I don't get my 1,000 month rent which is 20% return, even if I take 300 month for rent, it is 8% compared to cds and trusting the FDIC stays solvent and that the dollar holds. What is the lesser of all evils. For me it's real assetts with a cushion of 1 yrs living expenses liquid.
If each of us had a million what would we do with it, bank it and trust banks, buy real estate, or make sure whatever we bought we did not create debt. Another words real estate with cash and no mortgage. Gold, what is the real deal on gold, I can't seem to cozy up to buying gold. Right now the rules on making it are so unwritten, it's like asking for a parent manual.
We are all aiming in the dark. Live lean, and do not build new debt, stock up on food and ammo and be prepared. That's all I can think at this time. PS another thing that is so scary is that everyone is on governement money. I have a tenant who moved in and her son is on SSI,she gets aid and then some form of welfare, I showed another rental over the weekend, lady said her hubby is in construction and there's no work but her son gets ssi and she gets cal works and baby sit. It's amazing, my rent is from governement. How the hell can the few that work cover all the aid that goes out, kids on ssi, unemployement everywhere. Section 8 pays out too much money when market rent is lower.
It's a catch 22 because I'm not sure to trust gov money coming in or a pay check, so far gov has always paid up. We can not sustain this course, the taxes collected won't cover all these freebee's. It's to blunt that it's scary, it's a matter of when the shtf. The unfolding of it is sick. I've followed economics for years, intrigued by it, but now, omg......... all my converstions are about the unfolding of this mess and some are starting to listen, only because they have too. Few are prepared. Sorry for rambling.
ps please donate a few bucks to this blogger, Even 10 bucks is great. I donated because I see the hard work he /she does. I am only saying this because I come here daily and if it went away I'd freak out not keeping up with backroom news.
Cheryl in Ca.
6.03 Seems to be a troll,ignore him he regulary turns up on this site talking bullshit.Just a total waste of time.
ReplyDelete6:42 Thanks for the laugh. The fact that you don't live here, is all the more reason to not take you very serious. Keep it up... I enjoy folks like you. Thanks again. Remember "I" should be capitalized. They don't teach English in your country?
ReplyDeleteCheryl, your gonna have to do what your gut tells you is best in your situation. I like economics too ( in a strictly amatuer way) but
ReplyDeleteeven the best at this time cannot even agree on what's next --- because they don't know.
The all around closest I think Is Gerald Celente and is track record proves he just assembles the FACTS and puts the pieces together. Long term commodities wll rule I think that's why everybody is hoarding stuff like food water guns ammo seeds etc. they know that everything is tied together what happens when the trucking industry goes down ?
Good luck - I think we're all going to need alot of it over the next 2 years
Cheryl, I am like you. I don't know what to do about Gold and protecting liquid assets. I have a friend that has invested in guns and ammo because he said they will be worth more than Gold when we have Hyperinflation and easier to barter with. He said a gun will protect you and feed you, but gold will only fill your teeth when you want to buy vegetables from a farmer. "A farmer would rather have guns and ammo than gold" I don't know. Anyone with good ideas, I'm listening.
ReplyDeleteYou are right about 6.03,he is always talking about drugs and Mexico,maybe its to keep him calm so he doesnt walk around his decaying street shouting at people.A real loser.
ReplyDeleteI live in the Midwest and all is well out here, but thankfully this is the breadbasket of the world, I do chuckle when I see all the gloom and doom here,
ReplyDeleteand it's almost like all you losers are hoping for Mad Max, he left the building 20 years ago when all you losers starting screaming "FIRE FIRE" well guess what? there is no fire and 20 years later I see you all still survived to post here on this laughable site,LOL
Silver and GOld? WTF? Just another scam to get you to part with your $$$, it's one of the WORST investments of all time, right up there with penny stocks, hell, you could make better returns trading the pinksheet,LMAO!!
6.58 Since when did Americans speak proper English,you will be speaking Spanish soon.Also you are still a liar.
ReplyDelete6:58 Agreed! I have a cousin that ownes a little trucking company with a few trucks and he is having to drive now and is having trouble getting loads. I still think we are going to need to know who has the big gardens and sell from their land. My biggest concern about natural resources is the deer population getting depleted drastically. Deer meat will probably be traded for high asset on the pound. Does anyone know of any good resources for dehydrating meat and how to store it for long periods without refrigeration?
ReplyDeleteGold production has been falling steadily for years. There is no overproduction of Gold and there never has been.
ReplyDeleteGold is money.
Anyone that says differently is a fool.
7:14 What is going on in American Economics should not be compared to the Y2K scare or other periods of fear mongering. The economy has suffered irreparable damage and no amount of money printing will solve this. I live in the Midwest. It is worse here than you realize. I do however agree with you about the Mad Max stuff. We are not a third world country and we will get through this regardless of how rough it is to afford food and find work. Americans are resilient and they have a propensity for survival. I will bet on Americans regardless of how ugly and nasty select cities become.
ReplyDeleteIs 1.11 and 7.14 the same person,if so the Troll is back.
ReplyDeleteWhat is a Troll? Sorry, I really have no idea.
ReplyDeleteThe stock market is down again this morning. I wonder if the Fed's will order the banks (the ones that received bailouts) to buy it back up again. I think that is the "security reasons" they don't tell us where the money went. What do you think?
ReplyDelete7.14 you have just verified to all educated people on this blog that you are a certified moron.You belong on Maury Pauich and the like.Never I heard such absolutely retarded verbage from anyone.Take your brain power that propably 3 above a tree sit down have a brewski and watch American Idol..That appears to be your intelectual tolerance max.
ReplyDelete7:46 Most Americans have only a vote to illicit change in the vast scheme of things. Unfortunately the Economy has been mishandled for over 20 years and no Republican or Democrat or Independent can create a quick fix. Going to Tea Parties will send a message, but it will not stop the coming avalanche of Hyperinflation. Going to the basement during a tornado or going outside during an earthquake does not make you a nut it makes you wise. Yes, there are a lot of people who are afraid. They are afraid because they know they can't fix this. Fear causes people to do things that can sometimes be out of character. Like call people names or go into total denial or threaten others. It is easy to be brave when it is impossible to be retaliated against physically.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, 1:11, some of these folks are either lost in space or mega wealthy (for now).
ReplyDeleteHow in the blue blazes of hell can anyone say their part of the country is doing well, if you still say you doing great, better ake a look at the many state budgets that are falling on their butts, and if you think it will not impact you, then you are sitting on your head.
Times are going to get very tough and this is going to be a prolonged ordeal.
City folks, I feel especially sorry for you.
8:02 People like 1:11 believe everything the news media tells them. When you read from this site or others that use actual news stories with facts and statistics you will be 1 to 10 weeks ahead of the fake news from the magazine shows the networks call news(just guessing on number of weeks).
ReplyDeleteI have been doing some dehydrating. Meat apparently can last years if dehydrated. My husband even found dried pork (looked kind of like sawdust) in the ethnic isle at the grocery store.
ReplyDeletepenna64, I was under the impression that when you dehydrate meat and vacuum pack it in mylar it is still only good for one year because of the lack of preservatives used my home jerky makers. I have an Excalibur 9 tray but have not tried it yet because it says you should not keep jerked meat in the fridge past a few weeks or that the shelf life under best conditions is one year. I would really like to do it...
ReplyDelete7:14 more would listen if you didn't say " everyone here is a loser", matter of fact, I'd say the open minded fairly educated , realistic people are here on this site. Make youre point , but no need to call names, because it downgrades people wanting to listen to you.
ReplyDeletemany great people are out of work, yes great people. The mid west is better from what I hear, I had a mall in TN, but vacancies are up. There is no place that is doing great, maybe some are safer and suffering less, but lets be real. Let me know how you local paper is looking under " employement opportunity". I suggest don't even comment on the trolls. I think it's a waste of their time to be here, I really want to learn what's going on and tell my story and views and read others views and real life stories.
Lets evaluate this : we are all confused and preparing for some insane stuff, SURE I"ll agree, we sound nuts, Sure I'll agree.
Lets view it this way, in 2006 if I drove down
the freeway with you in Antelope valley california and homes where 275k and I turned to you and said, hey, in 3 yrs those houses will go out at 55k, youd say I was dumb, insane and
just clueless. UNTIL , my friend, it happens.
So, as crazy as it sounds, whatever you want to call it, better safe than sorry. 55k homes are here in Southern California, inventory is low because our banks are hiding loses, that is the next shoe to drop BANKS. PS from psychology stand point, ignore trolls, the more you comment on them, the likely they are to come back, it's attention they seek. from here on out, if I read the first line and it's idiot comments, I read the next comment. If we don't react, they will leave.
Make it a great day everyone,
cheryl
Americans, start learning how to make mud pies. You will need them.
ReplyDelete9:11 Can you tell me what these pot shots are? I really don't know. Are your referring to a blog somewhere written by an Economic Expert? If it is a blog or something can you tell me where it is so I can get a good mud pie recipe. I believe the moisture and type of soil makes a difference and if I am going to have to eat them it would be better to have some good solid advice.
ReplyDeleteOr, are you an America Hater who just likes to come on our treasured web sites and throw mud pies. If so, I assure you when your country can't feed herself our government and Brad Pitt will send you some relief of some sort. Probably vegetables delivered in John Travolta's jet.
Dudley, I am American and I love Canadians. I love to come up there and kill your animals and catch your fish. It is beautiful up there. You are correct, our country as a whole is a corrupt, lazy, amoral, decadent nation. The workin' people got caught up in the Hollywood of Politics. When Minnesota elected a wrestler and a comedian I knew we were digressing. When the many republican women of America switched and voted Democrat during the last Presidential election I knew the Hollywood of Politics had won this one. However, on Americas worse day we are still the world leader in kicking booty and you Canadians will join us in all of our fights and come down here when you need top quality health care or just want to buy a really good pizza.
ReplyDeleteDudley, You say we are going down, the French have said this before... AND BEEN WRONG!! Now, we will have a food shortage and there will be some rioting and my massive retirement account will not be worth as much, but we Americans are not weak. Try not to lump us all into the catagory of some of the cowards on this and other sights who speak of shooting everything that moves when all the bad stuff starts to happen. You are judging this book by it's cover... and I tell you as many other nations have learned in the past 300 years... DON'T DICK WITH US! There is a reason we are all armed, it is to protect ourselves. We have 300 years experience in this.
ReplyDeletewhat America needs more Gomer pyles and Don knots.At least the gradual descent to the abbyss would entertaining.I miss you Mr Chicken and the incredible Mr Limpett.they were real American heroes .
ReplyDelete