Monday, May 10, 2010

The Welfare State's Death Spiral


What we're seeing in Greece is the death spiral of the welfare state. This isn't Greece's problem alone, and that's why its crisis has rattled global stock markets and threatens economic recovery. Virtually every advanced nation, including the United States, faces the same prospect. Aging populations have been promised huge health and retirement benefits, which countries haven't fully covered with taxes. The reckoning has arrived in Greece, but it awaits most wealthy societies.
Americans dislike the term "welfare state" and substitute the bland word "entitlements." Vocabulary doesn't alter the reality. Countries cannot overspend and overborrow forever. By delaying hard decisions about spending and taxes, governments maneuver themselves into a cul-de-sac. To be sure, Greece's plight is usually described as a European crisis -- especially for the euro, the common money used by 16 countries -- and this is true. But only to a point.
Euro coins and notes were introduced in 2002. The currency clearly hasn't lived up to its promises. It was supposed to lubricate faster economic growth by eliminating the cost and confusion of constantly converting between national currencies. More important, it would promote political unity. With a common currency, people would feel "European." Their identities as Germans, Italians and Spaniards would gradually blend into a continental identity.
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There are no hard rules as to what's excessive, but financial markets -- the banks and investors that buy government bonds -- are obviously worried. Aging populations make the outlook worse. In Greece, the 65-and-over population is projected to go from 18 percent of the total in 2005 to 25 percent in 2030. For Spain, the increase is from 17 percent to 25 percent.
The welfare state's death spiral is this: Almost anything governments might do with their budgets threatens to make matters worse by slowing the economy or triggering a recession. By allowing deficits to balloon, they risk a financial crisis as investors one day -- no one knows when -- doubt governments' ability to service their debts and, as with Greece, refuse to lend except at exorbitant rates. Cutting welfare benefits or raising taxes all would, at least temporarily, weaken the economy. Perversely, that would make paying the remaining benefits harder.
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Brother Can You Spare a Trillion?
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12 comments:

  1. Bailouts, bailouts everywhere. Spend, spend, spend, print, print, print, 'till our money is worthless and we all live in poverty unable to afford anything. The day will come where an entire day's salary will only afford you a meal. That day is coming. Less food, less luxuries, more government control on all of us. There is a price to pay for bailouts; that price is the surrendering of our freedoms! We are becoming slaves to the teet of governments, big corps and ruthless leaders!

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  2. Blah...Blah...Blah with all due respect to you and all. these nations and there federal banks have countless of unimaginable schemes to get out
    or postpone any disaster as long as they choose too.

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  3. 4:55

    You can cure your own disease? Then why do you think anything of humanity is indestructable? All things in this world are extremely fragile. Read anything in history describing scenerios about the random and most miniscule accidents and mistakes that collapsed and altered the mightiest things. It will by default thwart such attitudes and also those of extreme conspiracy theorists.

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  4. We here in the goodoleusofa are in good shape.Nevermind them commies in europe. We have the the fed here, they are a federal outfit that can print money when we need it.

    So if your a good american christian, you aint got nothing to worry about.

    We americans need to be worried about Tiger's neck,the dow is up and we're good to go, the fed will take care of any financial issues.

    God bless america

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  5. It appears to me that before the dollar becomes worthless,Race riots are more likely to break out. Please see Hannity segment tonight out of Arizona. Don"t get me wrong I think financial collapse is very near, However after seeing this show tonight race riots seem days away. Watch the repeat.

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  6. To all the active “confidence” shrills and boosters :

    After sticking up a Trillion dollar US backed paper sail for bonds in Europe, stock markets worldwidde had a Euphoric rise , based on the fantasy promoted in the media that creating more debts created real world value.
    It appears .that the effects of this euphoric wind created lasted only . one day and has already run out of puff. Stock markets in Asia are going nowhere on day two.

    “The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2 percent to 120.42 at 11:55 a.m. in Tokyo, led by gains in technology stocks. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed, following the biggest jump in U.S. stocks since March 2009. The euro slid 0.4 percent to 118.78 per yen, after strengthening 4.3 percent in the last two trading days”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah126bPicNP4&pos

    Time to Bring out another paper $ trillion
    bazooka shot?
    We are running out of confidence puff again?
    Load up another trillion $ Ben!

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  7. Gold price is still the same even after the $1 trillion bailout. Investors are seeing high inflation is coming if not hyperinflation.

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  8. Perhaps more and more people are starting to loose faith in the fiat money ... after that faith is the only thing propping up the money system.

    You can almost hear the CRASH and COLLAPSE.

    A currency or money system fails when people loose confidence and that appears to be happening more each day.

    What is sad ... is that many hard working good people will get hurt and realize they have been stolen from most of their life.

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  9. How much is a Trillion?
    As used in economics,counting GDP, Government revenues and insane bailouts?
    One thousand billions or a million billions?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
    Long_and_short_scalesLong and short scales
    The long and short scales [1] are two of several different large number naming systems used throughout the world:
    Long scale is the English translation of the French term échelle longue. It refers to a system of names in which every new term greater than million is 1,000,000 times the previous term: billion (from bi and million) means a million to the power of two or a million millions (1012), trillion (from tri and million) means a million to the power of three or a million billions (1018), and so on.
    Short scale is the English translation of the French term échelle courte.
    It refers to a system of large number names in which every new term greater than million is 1,000 times the previous term: billion means a thousand millions (109), trillion means a thousand billions (1012), and so on.
    There are other numbering systems which are neither long nor short scale such as the Chinese numbering system, the Indian numbering system, the Japanese numbering system, and the Korean numbering system. Many countries, including most in continental Europe, use the long scale.For most of the 19th and 20th centuries, the United Kingdom uniformly used the long scale,[2] while the United States of America used the short scale,[2] so that usage of the two systems was often referred to as British and American respectively.
    In 1974, the government of the UK switched to the short scale, a change that is reflected in its mass media and official usage.[

    Thus the bailout money for the Euro is nearly one Trillion $

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  10. Unfortunately, the reality of race war looming in the USA is growing more plausible daily.

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  11. Jesus Freak you have NO idea how bad it could get...I'm all for it to tell you the truth...It's time to make a stand...Most of the ghetto will die since they have no work ethics/skills...Prob is they will try to take what they want or think they need ONLY making things go worse for them long term.

    I pity anyone in the nasty parts of the midwest and east coast...If it has a large minority population it will be ravaged...All cities ARE 3 days away from chaos...DO I want a Mad Max senario?

    No not really but when you have large groups of violent young men with no skills and almost NO self control shit tends to go really bad...FACT.

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  12. It is all coming to a head. Time to repent of your sins and turn to Jesus because He is the only One who can carry you through this storm! And what a storm it will be.

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Everyone is encouraged to participate with civilized comments.