Saturday, August 14, 2010

Is a Crash Coming?

10 Reasons to Be Cautious
Could Wall Street be about to crash again?
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.

1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?
2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.
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Technical Gauge and Its Creator Sense Stock Gloom; 'Good Conspiracy Theories'?
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FYI- Superbug Coming From India No Cure
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14 comments:

  1. Why is this site continually looking for a specific moment to declare depression when it is already a Depression?? By continually looking for an official declarations they set themselves for failure as a site because it will never be declared as an official depression otherwise the world will have to admit failure thus it will not do this..

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  2. Depression is in the air..

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  3. Depression won't be the word for it. EVERYONE owes money. During the last depression, people could financially "hide out" on the family farm for a few years, then sign on with army in 1941. Now, everyone is socially isolated. Mom and dad are in a condo in Hawaii and haven't got room for your broke ass and your two screaming children. Your ex wants child support and she sure as hell is gonna get it, and no-one's hiring, no one has a work ethic anymore and anyone willing to work for a few bucks digging ditches is viewed as a sucker. It's a Perfect Storm that will make the 30's depression look like a financial hiccup.

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  4. What depression? Things are going great. Business is posting record profits, share holders earning great dividends. I see no sign of any problems.

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  5. 6:34 you sound like you're retarded

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  6. 6:19, you forgot to mention the current generation and the fact that they could care less about anything except watching American Idol and other reality shows while the world crumbles around them.

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  7. EA, can you post this story about the drug resistant superbug:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67A0YU20100811

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  8. In the 1930's they did not know they were in a Depression for a while. We may find that we are already in the beginning of the Depression.

    6:34 I hope you are joking otherwise you may be in for a very bad wake up in the next year or so.

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  9. We, who are jobless, broke, homeless or nearly homeless, we, who have had cars and homes repossessed, we, with no savings or health insurance, are in a state of depression.

    Those with jobs to go to, will continue to party like a rock star on the weekends and look forward to next weeks episode of .

    Obozo and his dumb ass wife, along with Congress are still enjoying spending money we don't have.

    I don't care how many times the MSM said the Michelle is a "private citizen" while she vacationed in Spain. Yours and my tax dollars were used to cover the $170,000.00 round trip on Air Force II, not including time on the ground with 24 hour security around the plane, and the Secret Service detail that followed her every step of the way. This woman seriously needs a bitch slapping.

    For some of us, the Great Depression II is already here, everyone else is still standing in line.

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  10. 8-25-10 Prepare your family now. Time is running out.

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  11. No worries; I am fully prepared to eat human flesh and I have studiously avoided having a family.

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  12. Indians are very dirty, diseased people

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  13. Anonymous said...
    Indians are very dirty, diseased people

    in their own way?

    Unlike americans, most of the Indian poor are not overfed and do not have obesity related diseases unlike most waddling americans .
    Nor , like the millions of americans who cannot exist or function everday in their alienation from a sick system ,without the addictive mind altering drugs prescribed for them for their inability to function as humans by their Psychiatrists who invent and name mind diseases requiring sedative drugs on behalf of big phama.
    This is the american way of good clean living!
    The psychotic drug dependent individuals are so twisted and anti-life that they violantly
    spread depleted uranium caused radiation diseases in pre-emptive wars arround the Third world, in order to continue to preserve and exist in the american dream of overconsumption "sustainably" while living
    in a sea of debts.
    Their economy and lifestyles may be parasitical and fed by credit from the rest of the world , But at least these American superior obese parasitical beings ,the end product of an insolvant capitalism and its education and individualist conditioning ,are mostly only diseased mainly in the minds and so do not consider themselves a "dirty "race.
    Even if they in their obesity can no longer wash their toes.

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  14. Go away smelly dothead!

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