Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Oil To Hit $300 A Barrel

Weeden & Co. oil analyst Charles Maxwell says oil prices are bound to move steadily higher during the next decade, eventually hitting $300 a barrel, regardless of whatever happens in Egypt.

Oil now trades around $85 a barrel, only a few dollars higher than a year ago. It has ranged between $50 and nearly $150 during the past five years.

An oilfield near Los Angeles.
Demand will inevitably outpace the ability of oil companies to create supply, Maxwell tells Barron’s in an interview. Most people get that without an expert telling them so, he said.

“In three or four years, will the ability to produce the extra barrels needed be met? The answer is increasingly a question mark, and that pushes higher and higher the present values of the oil in the ground and the desire of holders of oil to add to their supplies,” Maxwell said.

Maxwell notes that current production is 88 million barrels a day, to which he adds global capacity of another 5 million barrels a day. He predicts that capacity will peak in five years at 95 million barrels.

Read more: Analyst: Oil Will Hit $300 in a Decade, Regardless of Egypt


  1. well duh. the earth has finite amount of resource. once u used them they are gone forever.

  2. I agree, it may hit 300 or it may go higher (eventually it will, unless everything just collapses), but disagree on two points:

    1) that it will most likely take as long as 2020

    2) that economic growth will not be affected (goes against common sense - oil is the building block of modern economies).

  3. Perfect That will kill any trade with Asia, and jobs will come close to home.

  4. Perhaps when gas is $15.00 a gal, talks of using compressed or liquid hydrogen as a fuel will finally start.

    Science 101, pay attention class

    Q. Where does hydrogen come from? A. Water
    Q. What comes out the tail pipe of the car powered by hydrogen? A. Water vapor.
    Q. Is water vapor a "green house gas"? A. No
    Q. Is water vapor a pollutant? A. No
    Q. Will we ever have hydrogen powered cars and trucks? A. No. If you control the oil, you control the world's economies.

    Class dismissed.

  5. One of the larger oil companies just stated that peak oil is here. Meanwhile, we still allow the energy companies to drill in America but ship the oil and gas out of the country. I read that most of Alaska's oil goes to Japan. And I'll make you a bet that conservatives don't even know that.

  6. So oil is currently trading at only a few dollars higher than a year ago. Price of gas at my station down the street for regular unleaded- $3.56 per gallon and rising rapidly each day.

  7. Yes, sharonsj, we conservatives do know that most of Alaska's oil is sold to Japan. It's called the FREE MARKET, something an old liberal/progressive/socialist like yourself knows NOTHING about!

    I've read dozens of your posts over the past few years and you ALWAYS go out of your way to take a shot at conservatives and Republicans. You're nothing but a sick old lady and I'll call you out on your liberal bias EVERY TIME!

  8. Right on Glenn! Sharonsj is a perfect example of a leftist/communist/statist who believes that the US Government can dictate to private oil companies where and to whom they should sell their products. She and her ilk--led by Marxist-in-Chief Obozo--are what is destroying this great country of ours.

  9. Drill Loser Drill said, name me one repug program that has ever helped the middle class and poor, Just one, loser repugs. Glen Beck would make Goebbels proud.

  10. Oil will drop to 10 dollars a barrel if this energy breakthrough turns out to be all they are claiming it to be.

  11. Classroom modified:

    1) Hydrogen can come from water

    2) water is not a pollutant

    3) it takes energy to extract hydrogen from water

    4) are the fuels used to extract hydrogen pollutants? A: yes

    5) is there a greater return on energy after extracting said hydrogen from water? a: not really

    6) then are we screwed? A: yes

    Class dismissed.

  12. 5:41 pipe dreams my friend. Maybe one day it will work, but for now it is only so much sci fi fantasy and free energy pie in the sky hopefulness. But to prepare than to bank everything on one long shot.

  13. Classroom Remodified;

    Do we have the LARGEST natural ----- key word here folks is NATURAL gas in the world? A: Yes

    Do we know how to get it? A: Yes

    Can it be used in EVERY instance to replace any other fossil fuel in 99.5% of applications: A:Yes

    Is it without a doubt the CLEANEST burning carbon fuel we have A: Yes
    Do we currently have the technology to run cogeneration plants, convert internal combustion engines, coal fired plants, nuclear fired plants, rail systems, ships, hell - anything that requires fuel! YES YES YES

    Can ANYBODY out there please tell me why the living hell we are not exploiting the living shit out of this abundant, clean, safe, fuel

    It just blows my mind! It's right under our feeet

    And it's 1/4 the cost of gasoline and it burns so clean you don't have to change your engine oil for 25,000 miles !


  14. The simple answer is we ARE exploiting the shit out of this natural resource. Since our society is based on the premise for profit alone why wouldnt we? Hell that is why they are drlling the shit out of neighborhoods and i ever deeper underwater places.

    The sad fact is that there is a limit on gas as well and it will NOT last us forever.Banking on that as a solution is practically like banking on treasury and bond notes.


  15. wti only one a few dollers higher, most all other contracts much higher which is what everyones trying to figure out, most are $100 a barrel and up. it helps with the gov numbers on cpi inflation, helps the political class, banks, fed..but if wti goes with brent and others then expect by the end of the year it'll price higher

    lol-not that the price is manipulated or anything!

  16. $300 oil will drive up the demand For Treasury bills .
    That will fire up the printing presses for Ben.
    The Dollar hegemony meant the American military has to prop up the high price of oil by supporting and bribing local elites like the Saudi kings and opecf , so that they invest their profits back in the dollar printing system.
    In that way america could use the dollar paper to buy cheap commodities while only paying a low interest rate on the re-invested in America dollars.
    The demand for dollars from all countries needing to buy oil priced in dollars was huge.

    But America could not survive only on dollar hegemony printers profits.

    So, the Free market for capital system in America exported its industries and the many millions of jobs it owns when it could no longer make a profit in high waged America, after irresponsible American consumers were laid low by debts and could not afford to “buy American” .
    And its government Treasury was weighed down by past deficit for wars debts.

    Free trade and finance capital ,the Chinese an Arabs saved the American consumer by delivering cheap affordable Chinese trash on credit in a great Ponzi economy..

    And only at the cost of a few million jobs.

    That is the beauty and rational working and benefits of international “free trade” that you have long heard about ever since NAFTA.

    That policy of course has bi-partisan support from the bribed political agents of Wall St.. And is therefore above political criticism by economically sane people. All the best economist academics and Nobel prize winners of both the left and the right will assure you that Free trade is the future for America.

    Americans are often stupid enough to think they were “American” jobs sent offshore, but they belonged to their company owners and to free trade.

    Some even think that American oil from Alaska sold cheaply in America as if they owned it .

    They even whine when British Petroleum that international paragon of free trade pollutes the gulf . They want to see the oil markets environmentally “ regulated” just because it stuffed up a bit by being a little bit lax on safety. .

    These insane Anti-free trade people are obviously socialists and communists with no respect for the ‘private” property of the trans-national company owners or of great patriotic American companies like Wall Mart struggling for profits in hard times..

    They do not appreciate the great benefits “free trade” delivers to Americans .

    Wall Mart for example is a great contributor to American GD” P” and Americans lifestyles and standard of living ,as the profits it makes from selling cheap products from China in America, are often passed on to pension fund shareholders owned by ordinary Americans that are free to invest in Wall Mart .

    America will be fine after “Austerity” drives the level of wages down to more competitive realistic third world levels. That may take a decade or so.
    Then you will see the god of free trade will be willing to invest in American industry and jobs again.

    Keynesian stimulus money printing for investing money to rebuild American industry and American jobs in the FDR manner, is not possible because all future government debt money printing and future tax revenues, are already promise for continuing military wars for free trade, bailouts and the losses of insolvant bankster capital .
    So with not many consumer goods now being manufactured in america now, protectionism will not help much either.

    Even an inexhaustible printing press and a dollar hegemony can only do so much.

    So just keep the free trade faith .

  17. 11:05 Thanks for wasting my time, but I am afraid 66% of that was rubbish.

  18. I see, you were being sarcastic about free trade and communists and socialists, but I Don't believe the price of oil is being propped up - if anything it is being somewhat suppressed. If it goes too high it can lead to too much instability and demand destruction, therefore harming the foreigners and the oil barons pockets. We are still in the age of relatively cheap oil.

  19. The price of oil at different times is both suppressed or propped up .
    There is both competitive contention as well as collusion.

    But mainly propped up in recent decades to support the dollar hegemony aystem in parnership with local elites like the Saudi kings .This worked well when Opec Monopoly was still able to regulate stable supply and prices.
    The Saudis controlling the "swing" supply tap.

    But managing this system can lead to wars for empire for example ,in the first Gulf war Saddam was upset with the Kuwaitis selling cheaper oil, or the second Gulf war When Saddam attempted to switch away from the dollar pricing system.

    But the real world market has broken through in recent years as OPEC and the dollar hegemony loses its monopolies.

    Countries like Russia play an increasing role.
    China is providing increased demand.
    Commodity "futures " speculators are active in manipulating prices by controlling future suppies.

    When the dollar managed economic system cracks up as it did in 2008 with the collapse of the money markets ,the market asserted itself and the oil price fell massively as it could not be propped up.
    Despite talk of "peak Oil" shortages the oil countries were still willing to sell oil at those much lower prices .

    We can assume that it was still profitable.
    Even if some derivitive players got burned.

    The desperate elite M.E oil puppets see their own way out of economic trouble by driving the price of oil higher.

    But that high price demanded by the suppliers will be hard to maintain owing to the debt crisis and economic downturn in the big rich First World markets.


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