Natsuko Waki
Pension funds in developed economies are facing a new crisis as falling equities and tumbling bond yields widen their deficits, threatening the incomes and retirement dates of future retirees. At the heart of their problems is a steady move by pension plans in the United States, euro zone, Japan and the UK to cut exposure to risk after the financial crisis. But this "de-risking" may end up depressing their long-term returns from stock market investment and challenge the conventional wisdom that shares generate higher returns than bonds.
This may reinvigorate an academic debate where some economic analysis suggests the equity risk premium should be small, in most cases less than half a percentage point, as opposed to the widely-used range of 4-6 percent. Indeed, 10-year U.S. Treasuries gave higher total returns in the past 10 years on a rolling basis than world stocks. link.reuters.com/nyv53s "The puzzle... is that for the past 20 years, there has been no net equity risk premium. With the recent sell-off in risk and the rally in bonds, I think there might have been a net premium on bonds," Stephen Jen, managing partner at SLJ Macro Partners, said in a note to clients. "This has turned financial theory on its head, and managers of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds need to think about this very carefully."
This may reinvigorate an academic debate where some economic analysis suggests the equity risk premium should be small, in most cases less than half a percentage point, as opposed to the widely-used range of 4-6 percent. Indeed, 10-year U.S. Treasuries gave higher total returns in the past 10 years on a rolling basis than world stocks. link.reuters.com/nyv53s "The puzzle... is that for the past 20 years, there has been no net equity risk premium. With the recent sell-off in risk and the rally in bonds, I think there might have been a net premium on bonds," Stephen Jen, managing partner at SLJ Macro Partners, said in a note to clients. "This has turned financial theory on its head, and managers of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds need to think about this very carefully."
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