Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Siren - An Early Warning System for Economic Risk ...

... is a simple idea (or our first shot at it). Collect real-time information from economic forecasters with superb track record and present it all in one place. Automated, dependable, free information feeds. What made us consider something like this?

We felt that the mainstream media didn't give citizens any warning before the bursting of the housing bubble. Millions of people lost a significant part of their retirement savings in the financial meltdown that followed. Indeed, out of over 1 million stories published between 2000 and mid-2007 in major economic media such as the The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, Fortune, Business Week and Forbes, only 700 stories (out of over 1 million!) could be considered a warning before the financial crisis that was coming. These were „corks bobbing on a news Niagara", to quote Dean Starkman, the auhor of the study.

It was terryfing to find out that you absolutely can't rely on the traditional media to help you prepare for important events in the future. So, it sparked our quest for more reliable sources of future-relevant information. These sources - the Voices of the Siren - should meet the following criteria: Read more........

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