Thursday, September 22, 2011

Coming Depression: 2012

The global recession in 2012 is "65 to 75 percent sure" and the one that could degenerate into a long depression, says Roger Nightingale, economist and strategist RDN Associates.
Peak growth rates for the world economy took place over 12 months ago and "brought him down," Nightingale says. "We probably started to decline in the region around next spring, not sure, but this is the most likely option. I would say that the recession is 65 percent, 75 percent certain."
The Economist warned that the recession would kick in, the world economy may be too weak to cause GDP for years or even decades.
"When the crisis ends, and when the recovery begins, it will be strong enough to take us in a kind of growth again? Or should we find ourselves in a prolonged depression type scenario? "He marvels.
"Seven years is a brief depression but can last much longer than that. I would be happy if it lasts for only seven years. In the case of Japan, it lasted 20 years," he said.
Nightingale added that the U.S. economy has "some big advantages," but did not know he was strong enough to rule the world out of recession.
"America is very competitive right now, and has many advantages in finance, agriculture and many other areas. There are great advantages in the situation of America, and are responsible for some growth. Be sufficiently large to maintain anything goes, and to rescue the world, is another matter, "he said.
But Nightingale said that Europe is "difficult to completely hopeless." He warned that the BRIC countries, China and India may be headed in a "somewhat similar direction”.
The strategy is also a strong concern about the German man of Europe, saying its figures of industrial output plunge in Japan's recovery from the tsunami.
"Germany is the largest recipient of Japanese tsunami, and the Japanese return flows and increased production of new markets to take on the Germans," said Nightingale.
"Watch carefully for the industrial production numbers are very significant, probably next fall with the spring of next year," he added.


  1. I think he's living in the 1980s man...

    1. The thing that scares me most concerning the current condition of the economy is the lack of recognition of the seriousness of the economic problems facing the country. Theirs an old saying in order for an acholic to get on to the road to becoming a non acholic they must first admit that they have a serious problem with alcohol addiction otherwise theirs no chance to ever resolve the addiction problem. We now have a situation where almost no one in government seems to realize or is willing to face just how serious the economic problems facing the country are. Everyone seems to be just waiting for the so called next economic recovery to take hold.

  2. 1:31 I couldn't have said it myself.

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  9. The information written last year prove to be right for Europe.

  10. My family is starting to think i'm losing it b/c i've been warning them for years and they cannot see it. We live in an area were it seems it's not effected YET by the depression. I tell them to open their eyes - 20% of people are unemployed and we need to wake people up to the fact that things are not getting better.

  11. 100% world economies have spun out of control, recession andwar coming

  12. Still hasn't hit yet, I think it will hit by the middle of 2013. In an election year there are more than enough tricks to stay out of it. If Obama is re-elected there is no hope.

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