While he pointed to various data points and recounted a number of anecdotes to prove his point, Shilling's argument was simple: the consumer strength we saw earlier this year was fleeting and highly accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of more quantitative easing are the only things propping up markets right now.
In fact, the fundamentals of the economy lead him to believe "the U.S. economy is overdue for a recession."
Most importantly, Shilling writes that "consumer spending is the only major source of strength in the U.S. economy this year," but now all signs point to retrenchment:
While consumers should be "reduce debt and rebuild net worth, they have been doing the opposite lately."
However, continuing sluggishness in hiring lead Shilling to believe that this trend is unsustainable. "The U.S. has a lot of job openings, but having endured huge layoffs in recent years, employers are being very picky in new hiring," he writes. Read more.........